habe eben ein e-mail von e-mail von FAO (= Organisation der WHO) bekommen.
Um es kurz zu machen: die WHO wird wohl Ende Juni die höchste Pandemiestufe (6) erklären. Gleichzeitig aber wird sie aber die Pandemiestufe 6 UNTERKATEGORISIEREN:
"Pandemiestufe 6" sogt ja lediglich etwas über die Verbreitung aus (dass sich das Virus auf mehr als 2 Weltregionen selbstsändig verbreitet). Nun soll noch eine Kategorie des SCHWEREGRADES die Pandemiestufe 6 unterteilen. Das aktuelle "Schweineinfluenza-Pandemievirus" wird sich wohl im Winter stark bei uns in Europa und USA verbreiten. Die Todeszahlen dürften wohl um etwa 2-5 x höher sein als bei "normalen Grippeviren".
Die neue Unterkategorie wird dieses Virus daher wohl eher als "MILD" bezeichnen. Auf den Goldpreis erwarte ich mir zwar keine direkte Auswirkungen, möglicherweise aber auf die Gesundheitskosten (Spital, Arzt. Arzneimittel), die im kommenden Winter wohl deutlich höher sein werden und damit die Gesundheitsbudgets belasten dürften. Dennoch dürften das peanuts sein, im Vergleich zu den Geldmengen, die aktuell für die Aufrechterhaltung des Finanzswesens aus dem sprichwörtlichen Nichts "geschöpft" werden.
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UPDATE 14: H1N1 influenza spreads to 74 countries. World Health Organization contemplates declaring a pandemic including a severity rating.
From: o: EureastVPH-L@mailserv.fao.org
This alert affects Worldwide.
This alert began 08 Jun 2009 02:55 GMT and is scheduled to expire 24 Jun
2009 23:59 GMT.
Current Situation
As of June 7, health authorities in 74 countries have identified nearly 25,000 infections and 150 deaths due to the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus. The numbers have increased by 8,000 new infections and 11 new countries reporting influenza A(H1N1) illnesses, as compared to just one week ago. Yet, true numbers of infections and countries involved are likely much higher than reported. Many poor nations lack the capacity to test for the new influenza A(H1N1) virus, while in the U.S., where infections are widespread, doctors only test a fraction of people who complain of flu-like symptoms. Officials estimate the true number of infections in the U.S. is 20 times higher than the approximately 13,000 reported cases.
World Health Organization (WHO) officials have been persuaded to delay declaration of a pandemic (Pandemic Alert Phase 6) since most H1N1 illnesses have been mild. By late June, the WHO will likely declare Pandemic Phase 6 and divide the phase into several severity levels to better reflect the characteristics of this virus, rather than defining Phase 6 strictly according to geographic spread.
Americas
Almost every country in Central and South American and most countries in the Caribbean have reported H1N1 infections. Chile has reported the greatest number - more than 900. Two deaths have occurred in Chile - 37- and 56-year-old men from Puerto Montt and Osorno, respectively. Doctors say 65 percent of influenza infections in Chile are now due to the new
H1N1 virus. Other Latin American countries reporting deaths due to H1N1 include the Dominican Republic (a pregnant teen) and Costa Rica.
Officials in Argentina have reported more than 200 H1N1 infections, and a recent outbreak among students at a school in Buenos Aires. More than 800 suspected H1N1 illnesses are under investigation.
In the U.S., authorities say the number of people seeking care for flu-like symptoms is dropping in most areas, with the exceptions of northwestern U.S., New England and the New York City metropolitan area.
Since mid-May, New York City officials have reported eight deaths linked to H1N1 and nearly 350 H1N1-related hospitalizations, mostly in Queens and Brooklyn. Nationwide, U.S. authorities have reported approximately 800 hospitalizations and 36 deaths.
Although the numbers of new H1N1 infections in Mexico have fallen since April 23, localized outbreaks continue in some central and southern states. Authorities reported more than 40 deaths in May. Approximately
72 percent of deaths have occurred in the 20 to 54-year age group.
Asia
In Japan, doctors have diagnosed more than 400 infections, mostly in Hyogo and Osaka, but say that since last week, numbers of new infections are falling. Federal officials have also stopped onboard medical screening of airlines arriving from countries reporting cases of influenza A (H1N1), and no longer quarantine entire planes that arrive with a passenger suspected of H1N1 infection. Instead, if anyone on the flight is ill, the ill passenger is isolated and taken to a hospital for medical evaluation. Other passengers, including crew and those within two rows of the sick person are asked to voluntarily quarantine themselves for seven days.
China and Hong Kong have reported more than 100 infections. Chinese officials continue to board aircraft to take passengers' temperatures before they are allowed to disembark. If anyone on the flight is ill, passengers within two rows of the sick passenger are quarantined for seven days, or until authorities determine that the sick passenger is not infected with H1N1. Singapore has a similar quarantine policy.
Europe
In Europe, authorities are reporting approximately 50-75 new H1N1 cases per day; nearly one-third are a result of in-country transmission (rather than in travelers). The U.K. (nearly 500 cases) and Spain (nearly 300 cases) are reporting the greatest numbers of cases. Several schools in Madrid are reporting outbreaks.
Middle East/North Africa
Most countries in the Middle East and North Africa reporting H1N1 infections have less than 10 cases. Israel is reporting the highest number of cases in the region with approximately 40.
South Pacific/Oceania
The number of influenza A(H1N1) cases in southeastern Australia increased rapidly during the last week of May and into early June.
Emergency rooms in Melbourne are reportedly seeing double the number of influenza illnesses as during the peak of a typical flu season.
Officials have set up community health centers to decrease the load on local emergency rooms. Doctors say the majority of illnesses are occurring among young people, and most have been mild. Nevertheless, approximately three percent have required hospitalization. Scientists have determined that at least 70 percent of influenza illnesses in Australia are now due to the new H1N1 virus.
Victoria (where Melbourne is located) has reported more than 80 percent of Australia's total of more than 1,000 cases. People returning to other areas of the country from Melbourne are subject to voluntary quarantine measures; children are requested to stay home from school for seven days. Victoria has also switched from a "contain" to a "sustain"
strategy to handle H1N1 cases. That means doctors will focus on preventing severe disease rather than trying to contain community spread.
Confirmed H1N1 Infections (June 7)
Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahamas, Bahrain, Barbados, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Cayman Islands, Chile, China (including Hong Kong and Taiwan), Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Estonia, Finland, France, French Polynesia, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Norway, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Republic of Korea, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkey, Ukraine, U.A.E., the U.K., the U.S., Uruguay, Venezuela and Vietnam.
Background and Analysis
The new influenza A(H1N1) virus could pose a significant threat to the Southern Hemisphere and tropics as their flu seasons begin. Chile and Australia are already reporting significant outbreaks, and the novel influenza A(H1N1) virus is now responsible for the majority of influenza illnesses in those countries. This strain will likely predominate throughout the Southern hemisphere's flu season, and highlights the need for a new H1N1 influenza vaccine.
Scientists are also concerned that H1N1 outbreaks could worsen in the Northern Hemisphere beginning in the fall, but genetic studies of the virus have shown no indication that it is evolving to a more lethal form.
Early data from Mexico and the U.S. indicates that the H1N1 swine influenza strain is transmitted from person-to-person more easily than seasonal influenza. World Health Organization officials say that the incubation period (time from exposure to onset of symptoms) might be up to eight days. U.S. officials say the percentage of patients requiring hospitalization appears to be higher than would be expected during a typical influenza season. Groups at high risk of severe disease include asthmatics, pregnant women and people with chronic diseases. Persons younger than 60 years appear to be at greatest risk for infection and serious illness. This pattern is typical of pandemic influenza.
Advice
Activate pandemic plans as appropriate. Update sick, travel and leave policies. As outbreaks spread, reconsider nonessential travel to areas where good healthcare may be unavailable. If you become ill while traveling, you may not be able to return home until you have recovered.
Tamiflu or Relenza can be used as treatment or to help prevent influenza. Seek prompt medical advice for fever and respiratory symptoms that appear within eight days of travel to affected areas. It is especially important to use good hand hygiene and avoid crowds. During peaks of outbreaks, anticipate business closures, possible travel restrictions and cancellations of large gatherings. Do not attempt to travel while sick or if you have a fever. |
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