eine absolute Flutung des Marktes für Potash sehe ich nicht.
"MOSCOW. July 15 (Interfax) — Uralkali (MOEX: URKA) expects negotiations with China over a new contract to begin no sooner than Q4, the sales and marketing director for the Russian potash miner, Oleg Petrov, told Interfax.
“I don’t expect negotiations any sooner than the fourth quarter, and the price in other markets, like Asia and Brazil, will be important for the success of the negotiations. I don’t think the negotiations will be easy,” he said.
In Brazil the ability of producers to increase prices at present is limited by the actions of the Belarusian Potash Company (BPC, trader for Belaruskali), Petrov said. Earlier he said that in the first half of the year potash prices went down about $30 per tonne to $325 per tonne because of the decrease in volumes in fertilizer applications and deliveries from Belarus.
“Having a presence on the market every day, we see that BPC sells its products at much lower prices than they declare. The July 1 price increases in Brazil by $25 per tonne completely fell through because BPC quietly continued to sell their product at old prices during the Brazilian peak demand season. This may give the Belarusian producer a little extra volume in the short term, but in the end it will inevitably lead to greater competition, lower prices and, possibly, even more stagnant demand. We sold an insignificant amount in July, and our products are now heading for the warehouse,” Petrov said."
Das war im Juli 2015. BPC scheint also durchaus an der Menge Gefallen gefunden zu haben. Diesbezüglich ist die Reaktion von Potash Corp und Uralkali (Menge vom Markt zu nehmen) sowas wie ein Zugeständnis an die alte Strategie. Sofern die finanziellen Probleme in Weissrussland zunehmen, wird sich auch Belaruskali wieder beugen. Insgesamt ist die Entwicklung jedenfalls ein guter Garant um neue Marktplayer abzuschrecken. |
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