... hier ist der Letter, und es ist der 2011er Letter, der in 2012 veröffentlicht wurde.
Bevor ich darauf eingehe: im Originalartikel lautet das Zitat wie folgt:
""We should wish for IBM's stock price to languish throughout the five years, " he wrote, due to the company's penchant for share buybacks. Lower stock prices make share buybacks more efficient, of course, as they allow companies to repurchase a greater amount of shares for the same amount of money."
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/02/18/...uffett-made-with-ib.aspx
Man beachte das Komma im Zitat, und das Leerzeichen danach - der Satz scheint also weitergegangen sein, es sieht so aus, als wurde nur einen Teil des Satzes zitiert.
Wichtig: In der deutschen Übersetzung fehlt sowohl das Komma, als auch das Satzzeichen.
Die Aussage steht als solche im Raum, und man weiß nicht, was danach noch geschrieben wurde. Keine Chance zu merken, dass nur ein halber Satz zitiert wird. Im amerikanischen Original hat der Autor formal richtig zitiert - aber eben auch nur den halben Satz gewählt.
Richtig wäre es den ganzen Satz zu zitieren.
Nachtrag: Tatsächlich ist der Satz vollständig. Es fehlte lediglich der in diesem Absatz vorangestellte Satz:
Und nun schauen wir mal, was er im ganzen Satz sagte, hier ist der ganze Abschnitt:
"Today, IBM has 1.16 billion shares outstanding, of which we own about 63.9 million or 5.5%. Naturally, what happens to the company’s earnings over the next five years is of enormous importance to us. Beyond that, the company will likely spend $50 billion or so in those years to repurchase shares. Our quiz for the day: What should a long-term shareholder, such as Berkshire, cheer for during that period?
I won’t keep you in suspense. We should wish for IBM’s stock price to languish throughout the five years.
Let’s do the math. If IBM’s stock price averages, say, $200 during the period, the company will acquire 250 million shares for its $50 billion. There would consequently be 910 million shares outstanding, and we would own about 7% of the company. If the stock conversely sells for an average of $300 during the five-year period, IBM will acquire only 167 million shares. That would leave about 990 million shares outstanding after five years, of which we would own 6.5%.
If IBM were to earn, say, $20 billion in the fifth year, our share of those earnings would be a full $100 million greater under the “disappointing” scenario of a lower stock price than they would have been at the higher price. At some later point our shares would be worth perhaps $11⁄2 billion more than if the “high-price” repurchase scenario had taken place."
Für mich klingt das eher danach, dass er als Aktionär in fallenden Kursen keine Katastrophe sieht, und er sie beruhigen will, weil laut der Sicht von Berkshire durch das ARP nach fünf Jahren dennoch Profit dabei herausspringt.
Dieser Satz zeigt, dass er es über die fünf Jahre hinaus langfristig sah - siehe den dritten Abshnitt: "At some later point our shares would be worth perhaps $11⁄2 billion more than if the “high-price” repurchase scenario had taken place."
Was er damit erklärt, das ist die langfristige Wirkung, die ein ARP auf einen Kurs hat - und den Vorteil für langfristige Aktionäre.
Das klingt nicht nach jemandem, der ein Interesse hat an dauerhaft niedrigen Kursen. Auch Buffett dürfe es lieber sein, wenn der Kurs von IBM deutlich gestiegen wäre.
Was bleibt: der fool Autor hat sich einen Satz herausgegriffen, hat den für Kritik an Buffett umgebogen, und als dessen Fehler bezeichnet.
Für mich klingen Buffetts Überlegungen recht schlüssig.
Hier sind alle Letter von Berkshire: http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html
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"Today, IBM has 1.16 billion shares outstanding, of which we own about 63.9 million or 5.5%. Naturally, what happens to the company’s earnings over the next five years is of enormous importance to us. Beyond that, the company will likely spend $50 billion or so in those years to repurchase shares. Our quiz for the day: What should a long-term shareholder, such as Berkshire, cheer for during that period?
I won’t keep you in suspense. We should wish for IBM’s stock price to languish throughout the five years.
Let’s do the math. If IBM’s stock price averages, say, $200 during the period, the company will acquire 250 million shares for its $50 billion. There would consequently be 910 million shares outstanding, and we would own about 7% of the company. If the stock conversely sells for an average of $300 during the five-year period, IBM will acquire only 167 million shares. That would leave about 990 million shares outstanding after five years, of which we would own 6.5%.
If IBM were to earn, say, $20 billion in the fifth year, our share of those earnings would be a full $100 million greater under the “disappointing” scenario of a lower stock price than they would have been at the higher price. At some later point our shares would be worth perhaps $11⁄2 billion more than if the “high-price” repurchase scenario had taken place.
The logic is simple: If you are going to be a net buyer of stocks in the future, either directly with your own money or indirectly (through your ownership of a company that is repurchasing shares), you are hurt when stocks rise. You benefit when stocks swoon. Emotions, however, too often complicate the matter: Most people, including those who will be net buyers in the future, take comfort in seeing stock prices advance. These shareholders resemble a commuter who rejoices after the price of gas increases, simply because his tank contains a day’s supply.
Charlie and I don’t expect to win many of you over to our way of thinking – we’ve observed enough human behavior to know the futility of that – but we do want you to be aware of our personal calculus. And here a confession is in order: In my early days I, too, rejoiced when the market rose. Then I read Chapter Eight of Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, the chapter dealing with how investors should view fluctuations in stock prices. Immediately the scales fell from my eyes, and low prices became my friend. Picking up that book was one of the luckiest moments in my life.
In the end, the success of our IBM investment will be determined primarily by its future earnings. But an important secondary factor will be how many shares the company purchases with the substantial sums it is likely to devote to this activity. And if repurchases ever reduce the IBM shares outstanding to 63.9 million, I will abandon my famed frugality and give Berkshire employees a paid holiday."
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