heute gibts schöne einkaufkurse bei 35. Laut neuem FMB Report kämpfen die Kaliförderer die laufenden Verträge zu erfüllen. Die Angebotslage sei sehr knapp. Deswegen wäre es auch kein Problem für die wenigen noch freien Kalimengen konstante bzw. höhere Preise durchzusetzen. Bei konstanten Kalipreisen liegt das forward kgv unter 3. das diejährige bei 5,0. Wenn die kalipreise also von 1000 auf das diesjährige Mittel von 600 usd zurückfallen bliebe das nächstjährige kgv mit 5,0 extrem niedrig. auf fallende Preise deutet jedoch noch nichts hin: gerade frisch eingetroffen (auch wenn fundemantals in zeiten eines crashs niemanden interessieren): FMB Weekly Fertilizer Report: MARKET SUMMARY: The potash market continues to be constrained by extremely tight supplies. Suppliers are heavily occupied in delivering existing commitments. The situation was tight before the summer shutdowns for holidays and maintenance at many producers. Those, plus the strikes at three of PotashCorp’s mines that have been running since 7 August now have simply wrung the mines and the port of Vancouver dry. As a result their prices have held steady or even increased in some markets, for example for standard MOP in Europe.last week and for granular MOP this week. There have been some signs that both parties in the PotashCorp strike are willing to resume negotiations but the terms are under dispute. India continues to take substantial tonnages of potash. Imports in Jan-Dec are forecast to jump from 3.9 million tonnes in 2007 to 5.5 million in 2008. EU:/W. EUROPE: As indicated in last week’s report, K+S Kali has announced this week to customers that its new price for granular MOP will be €615 pt cif/cfr. The prices are valid with immediate effect until further notice. Naturally exchange rates are fluctuating wildly and this has been equivalent to $835-845 pt so far this week. The prices for all K+S’s special products will be adjusted accordingly. BPC is understood to be considering setting €600 for standard and €615 pt cfr for granular MOP with effect from 1 November. UNITED KINGDOM: K+S Kali has also announced on a new granular MOP price in this market. It will be £478 pt cif/cfr with immediate effect. The US dollar equivalent has also been between $835-845 pt. INDIA: MOP sales in the Kharif season (Apr-Oct) show that MOP sales jumped by a massive 48% compared to the same period in 2007. The latest estimates of imports of MOP over the Jan-Dec calendar year are projecting a total of 5.5 million tonnes in 2008, compared to 3.9 million in 2007. CHINA: The next test of prices in 2009 is likely to be the talks between BPC and the Chinese buyers, such as Sinofert and the CNAMPGC. According to some sources, the second round of negotiations will probably take place around the end of October or early- November. Key spot prices for standard (granular) MOP in bulk US$ per tonne: _______________________ 9 Oct 2 Oct Vancouver fob (+$10-25) 750-925 750-925 FSU fob (+$10-15) 875-1020 875-1000 Brazil cfr 180d (+$10) 1000-1015 1000-1015 Taiwan/Thai/Phil. cfr (+$25) 1000-1100 1000-1100 (premium for granular MOP) |