Und der Kommentator radarthecat beschreibt das Szenario: ich denke, dass die Zahlen erheblich höher sein dürften, denn ich bin nicht sicher, was die von ihm genannte Zahl ab Calls betrifft. Zudem gibt es etliche KO Papiere, OS, etc. über die Optionen hinaus. Und wie er schrieb: für jeden fälligen Call mit einem Basispreis unterhalb $110 wurden nun $2 weniger fällig.
Dass am 15.04. extrem hohe Volumina und Open Interests auf den $100, $105 und $110 lagen, darüber habe ich mit Holzauge75 offline bereits vor über vier Wochen diskutiert. Und dass diese geradezu verführerisch für Kursschiebereien sind. Und nun platziert Nikkei diese Meldung, zeitlich geschickt, so dass sie an US Börsen für Kursrücksetzer genutzt werden können - ohne aber die Möglichkeit einer Verifizierung.
Eine 08/15 Aussage, die sie immer wieder raushauen, die aber nie zutraf. Es kam aber eh nicht auf den Inhalt an - die 'Nachricht' war nur der Anlass.
Das Ergebnis: der Kurs plumpste ziemlich exakt auf $110 (+/- 1/4 Dollar), d.h. den Kurs, bei dem ein großer Haufen Calls UND Puts verfallen. Ein niedrigerer Kurs würde Put Emittenten bluten lassen, ein höherer Call Emittenten - so freuen sich beide, nur die geprellten Call/Put Besitzer nicht.
Möglicherweise alles Zufall, möglicherweise auch zum x-ten Mal eine Anhäufung solcher Zufälle, möglicherweise eine blöde 'Verschwörungstheorie'.
Aber: wenn doch etwas dran sein sollte, dann ist das ein dreckiges Spiel, und man müsste seine Optionsgeschäfte und OS Strategien auf den Prüfstand stellen. Mindestens, was die letzten Wochen vor dem Verfalksdatum betrifft. Denn da scheint das Risiko betrogen zu werden recht hoch.
Wenn das eben mehr als eine Spinnerei sein sollte.
Die gute Nachricht: Nächsten Freitag, und den Freitag darauf liegt nur ein Bruchteil dessen auf dem Tisch, was gestern da lag. Es sollte also ruhiger zugehen.
http://forums.appleinsider.com/discussion/192750/...h-june-quarter/p3
Dritte Kommentarseite, erwas tiefer als mittig. Da es ein Kommentar ist, der schwer zu finden ist, d.h. ohne direkten Link, füge ich ihn vollständig ein:
"When Apple was lower, back down below $100, traders looked out to the April option expiration. Some decided to buy calls, option contracts that would give them the right to buy Apple at $110. Those calls were likely very cheap, perhaps pennies per share at that time. These folks were betting a small amount of money that Apple might perhaps rise above $110.
Market makers, professional traders, etc, who understand the statistics (that 90% of options expire worthless) would have looked at the newsflow surrounding Apple back then (remember how bad the news was when Apple dropped to $92 a couple months back?) and they likely figured that buying those calls was a sucker's bet, so they happily sold calls to anyone who wanted to buy them. Selling a call is not selling something you possess; it's equivalent to entering into a contract wherein you promise to deliver a stock at a certain price on a certain date. These pros would have made this promise even though they didn't hold shares of the stock. That's called selling a call naked. Looking at the April 15th option expiration, there were a larger number of call contracts at the $100 strike, another large number at the $105 strike, and another larger number at the $110 strike. Whomever sold the $100s and $105s either had to deliver stock at those prices, or had to pay the difference between the stock price and the strike price. At $112/share, that would mean $12 per share owed to close out their obligations on the $100 calls, and $7 per share to close out obligations for the $105 calls. And finally, $2 per share to close out obligations for the $110 calls. It's not fun to get caught short calls, especially naked.
There were some 100,000 contracts at the $110 strike. Each contract is for 100 shares. That's 10,000,000 shares worth of obligations for the side of each contract where someone was short. At $2 each, that's an aggregate $20,000,000 obligation. For calls that they might have originally gotten pennies per share for, and for which they were confident they would have no obligation. If Apple were sitting below $110, a contract to buy it at $110 is worth nothing, as you would not exercise that contract, but just buy on the open market for the lower price. But at $112, the call contracts are worth $2/share. So... what to do? Hmmm, lets regurgitate that old story about Apple reducing supply chain orders. That will create fear in the market. And let's not do it on Thursday, but let's wait until Friday, when there will be no time for market participants to dig into and investigate its validity. There will be time only to decide to hold or sell, and many, on a Friday, facing the type of news that has moved Apple in the past, will simply sell, driving the price lower. The $110 contract will expire worthless, screwing over those who originally bought them for pennies. They won't get their huge multi-bagger payday. Tough for them, us pros will be off the hook would be the thinking. And any $100s we got caught short on and $105s, well, those will still cost us something to close out, but they will cost us $2+ less per share, so we'll be a bit better off there too.
That's the scenario. Up to each person to decide whether such news on Friday afternoon in the face of a huge wall of calls at $110 was a coincidence, or manufactured to manipulate the price of the most easily manipulated stock on the exchange, to the benefit of the pros (the ones sophisticated enough to practice option shorting)."
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