"Wohl kaum. In 2018 sollten 500.000 produziert werden. Nicht in H2 2017. Und die Prognose von Tesla für Q3 sind 50-55 produzierte Model 3. Das sind weit weniger als 5T pro Woche. Man muss also nur Ziele nennen die Tesla nie genannt hat und schon kann man alles ganz schlecht rechnen."
Du hast Recht, ich habe mich mit den 500T für 2H17 vertan. Das war die Zahl, die insgesamt für S, X, M-3 für 2018 genannt wurde, davon 400T M-3. Sorry about that.
Zur Strafe habe ich geforscht und hier aufgeschrieben, was noch offiziell verfügbar ist.
Für 2H17 wurden in meiner Erinnerung 100-200T M-3 genannt. Ich glaube, das war in den Conference Calls 1Q17 und/oder 2Q17. Leider stellt Tesla die alten Webcasts auf ir.tesla.com nicht mehr zur Verfügung, und die Transscripts auf seekingalpha sind nur mit der kostenpflichtigen Pro-Version einsehbar.
Halten wir uns an das, was noch zugänglich ist, die Letters to Shareholders auf ir.tesla.com:
---------------------- 4Q16, 22.2.17: "Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018."
1Q17, 3.5.17: "Simultaneously, preparations at our production facilities are on track to support the ramp of Model 3 production to 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2017, and to 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018."
2Q17, 2.8.17: "Based on our preparedness at this time, we are confident we can produce just over 1,500 vehicles in Q3, and achieve a run rate of 5,000 vehicles per week by the end of 2017. We also continue to plan on increasing Model 3 production to 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018."
3Q17, 1.11.17: "Based on what we know now, we currently expect to achieve a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by late Q1 2018, recognizing that our production growth rate is like a stepped exponential, so there can be large forward jumps from one week to the next. We will provide an update when we announce Q4 production and delivery numbers in the first few days of January. With respect to the timing for producing 10,000 units per week, it has always been our intention to implement that capacity addition after we have achieved a 5,000 per week run rate."
"In Q3, we delivered 25,915 Model S and Model X vehicles and 222 Model 3 vehicles, for a total of 26,137 deliveries."
4Q17, 7.2.18: "We continue to target weekly Model 3 production rates of 2,500 by the end of Q1 and 5,000 by the end of Q2."
"As we shared previously, in order to incorporate our learnings and be capital efficient, we intend to start adding enough capacity to get to a 10,000 unit weekly rate for Model 3 once we have first hit the 5,000 per week milestone."
"In Q4, we delivered 28,425 Model S and Model X vehicles and 1,542 Model 3 vehicles, totaling 29,967 deliveries."
1Q18, 2.5.18: "We continue to target Model 3 production of approximately 5,000 per week in about two months, although our prior experience has demonstrated the difficulty of accurately forecasting specific production rates at specific points in time because of the exponential nature of the ramp."
"Once we hit the 5,000 per week milestone, we intend to incorporate our learnings to continue to increase output on our existing manufacturing lines beyond 5,000 units per week, and then in a capital efficient manner to add incremental capacity to ultimately get to a 10,000 unit weekly rate." ... "In Q1, we produced 24,728 Model S and X and 9,766 Model 3 vehicles, and delivered 21,815 Model S and Model X vehicles and 8,182 Model 3 vehicles, totaling 29,997 deliveries."
2Q18, 1.8.18: "During the month of July, we have repeated weekly production of approximately 5,000 Model 3 cars multiple times while also producing 2,000 Model S and X per week. Having achieved our 5,000 per week milestone, we will now continue to increase that further, with our aim being to produce 6,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by late August. We then expect to increase production over the next few quarters beyond 6,000 per week, while keeping additional capex limited. We believe that increasing capacity by improving utilization of our existing lines and making selective improvements to address bottlenecks rather than creating entirely new duplicated lines will be the most capital efficient approach. We aim to increase production to 10,000 Model 3s per week as fast as we can. We believe that the majority of Teslas production lines will be ready to produce at this rate by end of this year, but we will still have to increase capacity in certain places and we will need our suppliers to meet this as well. As a result, we expect to hit this rate sometime next year." ...
"We produced 53,339 vehicles in Q2 and delivered 22,319 Model S and Model X vehicles and 18,449 Model 3 vehicles, totaling 40,768 deliveries." ... "Now that we have reached a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week, we are focused on further ramping production, and achieving profitability and continuous cost efficiencies. We expect to produce 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3 vehicles in Q3, which will represent an increase of 75% to 92% from the prior quarter. Deliveries should outpace production in Q3 as our delivery system stabilizes."
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Wie man sieht, wurden die Ziele für M-3 ständig gesenkt, immer vager und nie eingehalten.
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