und Erläuterungen zum Contracting-Cycle von Cameco (09.02.2023):
" Long-term contracting creates full-cycle value for proven productive assets
Like other commodities, the demand for uranium is cyclical. However, unlike other commodities, uranium is not traded in meaningful quantities on a commodity exchange. The uranium market is principally based on bilaterally negotiated long-term contracts covering the annual run-rate requirements of nuclear power plants, with a small spot market to serve discretionary demand. History demonstrates that in general, when prices are rising and high, uranium is perceived as scarce, and more contracting activity takes place with proven and reliable suppliers. The higher demand discovered during this contracting cycle drive investment in higher-cost sources of production, which due to lengthy development timelines, tend to miss the contracting cycle and ramp up after demand has already been won by proven producers. The new uncommitted supply exposed to the small, discretionary spot market puts downward pressure on price and can create the perception that uranium is abundant, potentially resulting in a failure of long-term price signals. When prices are declining and low, there is no perceived urgency to contract, and contracting activity and investment in new supply dramatically decreases. After years of low prices, and a lack of investment in supply, and as the uncommitted material available in the spot market begins to thin, security-of-supply tends to overtake price concerns. Utilities typically re-enter the long-term contracting market to ensure they have a reliable future supply of uranium to run their reactors.
UxC reports that over the last five years approximately 430 million pounds U3O8equivalent have been locked-up in the long-term market, while approximately 775 million pounds U3O8equivalent have been consumed in reactors. We remain confident that utilities have a growing gap to fill.
We believe the current backlog of long-term contracting presents a substantial opportunity for proven and reliable suppliers.with tier-one productive capacity and a record of honoring supply commitments. As a low-cost producer, we manage our operations to increase value throughout these price cycles.
In our industry, customers do not come to the market right before they need to load nuclear fuel into their reactors. To operate a reactor that could run for more than 60 years, natural uranium and the downstream services have to be purchased years in advance, allowing time for a number of processing steps before a finished fuel bundle arrives at the power plant. At present, we believe there is a significant amount of uranium that needs to be contracted to keep reactors running into the next decade.
UxC estimates that cumulative uncovered requirements are about 2.3 billion pounds to the end of 2040. With the lack of investment over the past decade, there is growing uncertainty about where uranium will come from to satisfy growing demand, and utilities are becoming increasingly concerned about the availability of material to meet their long-term needs. In addition, secondary supplies have diminished, and the material available in the spot market has thinned as producers and financial
funds continue to purchase material. Furthermore, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February has given rise to a geopolitical realignment in energy markets that is causing some utilities to seek nuclear fuel suppliers whose values are aligned with their own or whose origin of supply better protects them from potential interruptions, including from transportation challenges or the
possible imposition of formal sanctions. ...."
S.14/15 (166):
https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/...CO-2022-Q4-MDA-FS-and-Notes.pdf
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