für den Rest des Jahres keine Sorgen mehr zu machen! Nymex Natural Gas Rises on Speculation of Fourth Quarter Rally
Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas rose in New York amid speculation hedge funds would increase purchases, driving up prices in the fourth quarter.
Natural gas has rallied in three of the last four years between Oct. 1 and Dec. 1. Gas jumped 15 percent a year ago during those two months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Gas has climbed 17 percent since Aug. 30, the first day the October futures contract became the front-month for trading. Speculative funds are buying ``ahead of what we see as a seasonal run-up in October,'' said Jim McCallie, a FC Stone LLC consultant in Indianapolis. ``They have ridden that horse all the way down to $5.25,'' the intraday low on Sept. 4 and Sept. 10. Gas for October delivery rose 32.1 cents, or 5.1 percent, to $6.60 per million British thermal units at 12:50 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas surged 4.2 percent on Sept. 14 with the formation of Tropical Storm Ingrid, now dissipating and posing no threat to gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. Short trades are bets prices will decline. They outnumbered long positions, or trades betting prices will rise, by 63,298 contracts for the week ended Sept. 11, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. McCallie said when the funds ``are in there buying, the value will go up.'' The increase ``depends on how much volume there is in the pit that day.'' A late-summer heat wave centered in the Midwest was also helping to support prices for natural gas as the warmer weather boosted electricity demand for cooling. Cooling Needs Air-conditioning needs in Chicago this week will be four times seasonal, Belton, Missouri-based Weather Derivatives Inc. said today. Temperatures for the third-largest U.S. city are forecast to reach 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 Celsius) by Sept. 19 from 79 today, the U.S. National Weather Service said. ``We've gone from Halloween weather to end of July weather within a week, that's what people are reacting to,'' said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. There is ``more demand than anticipated.'' The outlook for warm weather and recent production cuts by natural-gas producers such as Chesapeake Energy Corp. combine to boost prices, Flynn said. Reduced supply and higher demand limit how much gas can be put in storage for winter heating needs. The heat will hold ``into the start of next week,'' Weather Derivatives forecaster David Salmon said in an e-mail. The typical high for this time of year is 73 degrees in Chicago, according to National Weather Service historical data. New York will have cooling demand that is 59 percent above average. As cooling needs rise, more gas is needed to produce electricity from power plants. Temperatures in New York may rise later this week to 80 degrees from today's 74, according to government forecasters. The seasonal high for this time of year is about 73 degrees. Other U.S. cities expecting warmer weather this week include Detroit, where air conditioning needs are forecast to be three- times normal, and Dallas at 59 percent higher than average, according to Weather Derivatives. Oil Rises to Record a Fourth Day on Signs of Interest-Rate Cut Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York rose to a record a fourth day on signs that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at its meeting tomorrow to bolster the economy of the U.S., which consumes 24 percent of the world's oil. ``This is going to reassure folks about the economy and ease fears about a pullback in demand,'' said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``This comes on top of the realization that OPEC's production increase isn't that large and the barrels won't be hitting the U.S. for months anyway.'' The Federal Reserve is forecast to cut interest rates to help prevent the housing recession from bringing down the rest of the economy. Growth in the U.S. and China has helped spur the rise in energy demand and fuel prices. Crude oil for October delivery rose $1.22, or 1.5 percent, to $80.32 a barrel at 1:01 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $80.50, the highest since trading began in 1983. Prices are up 26 percent from a year ago. Brent crude oil for November settlement rose 61 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $76.83 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced last week in Vienna that it would release an additional 500,000 barrels of oil a day into the market beginning Nov. 1. OPEC members produce about 40 percent of the world's oil. Goldman Sachs Forecast Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its year-end oil-price forecast to $85 a barrel and cited a ``high risk'' of a jump above $90. Goldman increased the forecast from a previous prediction of $72 a barrel. OPEC's announcement of the production increase was ``too little too late,'' to prevent prices from rising above $90 a barrel, Goldman analysts, led by Jeffrey Currie, said in a research note published today. The additional barrels won't bring down oil prices during the Northern Hemisphere's winter, the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies said in a report today. ``Concerns remain that any additional oil will not reach consuming countries until the beginning of 2008,'' according to the report. Global oil demand peaks in the fourth quarter when refiners make heating fuel for winter. ``The U.S. economy is just one engine for global growth,'' said Antoine Halff, the head of energy research at Fimat USA Inc. in New York. ``I doubt that the problems with the U.S. housing market will have a sudden and profound impact on energy demand.'' Demand Growth Demand growth may average 1 percent for the rest of 2007 and 0.5 percent for 2008, CGES said in the report. The U.S. Energy Department said last week that global petroleum consumption will probably increase 1.5 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2008. ``We're looking for another big draw in crude-oil stockpiles and distillate supplies aren't looking very good,'' Mueller said. ``There are a lot reasons for oil to stay around $80.'' Crude-oil supplies dropped 2.38 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 14, according to the median of responses by eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News before an Energy Department report this week. It would be the 10th decline in 11 weeks. Inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 1.5 million barrels, according to the survey. Supplies in the week ended Sept. 7 were 7.3 percent lower than a year earlier. Meine zwei Freunde CM1200 und AA0K5U haben sich auch schon prächtig entwickelt! Und Activa müsste dann ja auch bald mal Gas geben. |
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