: Aixtron raised the guidance 80m in one month
Obviously something big happened in a short period. Innoscience announced its production plan of 6000 monthly 8" GaN-on-Si wafers a few days ago, which requires about 40 G5 or ~80m euro roughly in that ballpark. I believe because the Innoscience news is disclosed by the Chinese media and Aixtron was in that news, Aixtron had to come out to update its shareholders, as I alluded in #1018.
To answer fel206's question: Do i read correctly ? 397m in potential orders from this single customer?
In the news it says: "Production capacity will gradually climb after the start of production. The production capacity will reach 6,000 pieces/month by the end of 2021. After the project is fully operational at the end of 2022, the Suzhou plant will achieve an annual production capacity of 780,000 pieces of 8-inch silicon-based gallium nitride wafers, with an estimated annual output value of 15 billion yuan. Profits and taxes exceed 1.5 billion yuan."
So by the end of 2021 the capacity would reach annual 72,000 wafers. The news, IF ACCURATE, says to reach 780,000 capacity at the end of 2022. That is a 10x increase from 2021. That would require ~400 G5 by the end of 2022. Of course this is just an estimate, but you get the picture.
CWL1, your last information is very interesting and gives me a smile on my face.. (Excuse me, but my english is - in Germany we would say - suboptimal...
Ich möchte einmal einen gewissen born to trade im Forum nebenan in Erinnerung rufen. Der hatte seinerzeit, meine ich, zu ca. 19,xx verkauft. Damals bin ich mit hoch- und wieder runtergefahren - ohne zu veräußern.
Jetz bin ich immer noch dabei und habe nicht verkauft. Aufgrund der akt. Datenlage bzgl. Aixtron ist hier deutlich mehr Potenzial vorhanden.
The best is yet to come, schrieb damals baggo-mh, der Gründer dieses Froums. Mich würde interessieren, ob baggo hier noch investiert ist.
Nebenan wurde seinerzeit sehr abfällig über den Betriebsrundgang bei AIX, an welchem CWL1 und baggo-mh glücklicherweise teilnehmen durfen, gelästert. Despektierliche Äußerungen kamen von einigen Foristi noch on top.
Aber wer zwischen den Zeilen lesen konnte, und deren anschliessende Informationen bzgl. des Rundganges richtig bewertet hat, musste einfach dabei bleiben.
Die despektierlichen Stimmern sind natürlich alle verstummt!
natürlich ist @baggo noch dabei. Er wird so schnell nicht von einer Erfolgsleiter springen. Leider macht er sich nur in den Foren seit längerem etwas rarer. Schade eigentlich! Aber nun wird er wohl ein paar Tage damit beschäftigt sein, "unseren" Erfolg und "seine" Prognose zu feiern. Ein herzliches Prösterchen dazu !!!
a few of you have started to wonder what happend to me. Thanks for your concern. I am healthy, have gained the customary 5 Corona Kg weight and I am doing fine otherwise..
However the above has done something to my mind. Lockdown with very little interaction to other people. No business meetings in interesting places throughout Europe. 2 Skype birthdays without real celebration. It can all get you down and thinking about the important things in life.
Money is not the answer, although it makes life easier. Health, family, friendships.......laughter gatherings with friends are the important factors in life!!
My father died 5 years ago of cancer to the brain, my brother has had prostate cancer and my brother in law will soon die from pancreatic cancer. In December 2019 I therefore invested in a German Start-up that is now know the world over for having developped a vaccine to fight Corona. BioNTech.
When I was young I wanted to study biochemistry, but could not capture a place at a German University and there was no money to study abroad. Now, part of interest in the subject is reflected in what I carry in my portfolio.
During the past 12 months a have learnt sooo much about mRNA and the initially smaller investment in BNTX has outpaced even Aixtron. Today both carry the same weight in my portfolio but most of my attention is focussed on Corona and therfore BNTX.
What is happening at BNTX is sooooo fascinating even from a shear investment point of view it is like watchin a "Krimi" in real. Part 2 in a few minutes.
a statement by Felix Grawert at the coffee table to CWL1 and me at the very end of the AGM in 2019.
virtual AGM in 2020 only virtual AGM in 2021 only
which means no real interaction possible with management or IR. I had a Dr. appointment and therefore could not attend the virtual 2021 AGM. However I listened to it afterwards and paged through the rpesentation.
It would be nice to meet a few - if not all - of you at the 2022 AGM in Aachen to share some stories, drinks and laughter. How does that sound?
wie schön, dich endlich einmal wieder hier zu sehen und deine Worte zu lesen. Das kannst du gern hier und da auch wieder einmal etwas öfter machen. Du siehst, das Forum vermisst dich.
In etwa weiß ich Bescheid um deine Investments und dein Geschick, diese richtig einzusetzen und zu verwalten. Da wünsche ich dir weiterhin alles Glück dieser Welt! Am 26. Juni fahre ich endlich wieder einmal (nach Corona?) in meine Heimatstadt Aachen. Freue mich darauf und werde ein paar Tage dort verbringen, um dann mit einer lieben Person zurück nach Tirol zu fahren. Ob das im nächsten Jahr mit dem Besuch der HV in Aachen dann klappt, kann ich heute beim besten Willen noch nicht überschauen. Aber es wäre schön, dich und vielleicht ein paar andere dort zu treffen. Von mir aus auch bei ein, zwei Flaschen Champus, obwohl ich lieber Bier mag.
Noch etwas: Das mit der bösen Serienerkrankung in deiner Familie hat mich echt bewegt. Traurig alles! Und daraus lernen wir, dass Geld längst nicht das höchste Glück auf dieser Erde ist. Du wirst sehen, dass du nach dieser schrecklichen Familientragödie der ERSTE bist, der diesen bösen Bann bricht! Das wünsche ich dir aus ehrlichem Herzen und drücke dazu fest meine Daumen!!
I was never gone as some of you know. I was just distracted by the circumstances. Pandemic Cancer (my neighbor told me yesterday she is suffering from lung cancer. She is 4 years younger than me never smoked a cigarette in her entire life) BioNTech Hopefully we can meet in good health at the AGM 2022.
...AlsterResearch ist heute mit einem 22-Seiten "Initiation Report" rausgekommen ("Buy" mit Kursziel 28 Euro). Weiß nicht, wie lange der 'downloadbar' bleibt, daher legt Euch ins Zeug: https://www.research-hub.de
du bist wohl ein kleines Schlitzohr? Der Champus war/ist mein Einsatz für denjenigen, der gegen meine Prognose 25 ? wetten wollte/will. Es hat sich aber niemand gefunden und beim jetzigen Stand wird das auch niemand mehr riskieren wollen. Genehmigen werden wir uns denn noch einen!
ich erachte es auch als komische Kursentwicklung, zumal auf recht geringem Volumen.. vielleicht bekommt hier einer (mehrere?) kalte Füsse vor dem Hintergrund der Tapering Diskussion und verkauft mit seine Gewinner? Die Q2 Zahlen werden wohl (erneut) nicht der Brüller, ich habe von Erwartungen um 60m AE, 8m EBIT (inkl. der Sonderbelastungen für die APEVA Restrukturierung) aber einen sehr soliden AE ca. 120m gelesen.. nach dem eher schwachen (Umsatz/EBIT) in Q1 bringt das ggf. wieder die Diskussion mit sich, ob Aixtron die Guidance auch wirklich halten kann, da dass ja gigantisches Umsatz & EBIT in H2 bedeuten würde... Ich glaube weiter fest an die Story und vermute (zumindest für den AE) eine Erhöhung der Guidance mit Q3, allerdings nicht mit Q2. EUR/USD läuft ja übrigens auch für Aixtron zzt.
Insofern wäre meine Erklärung für den Kurs, dass jetzt alles "eingepreist" ist, also kein Upside mehr für die Gewinnerwartungen besteht, da der Konsens für 2021 bereits bei 427m Umsatz und 93.7m EBIT (22% Marge!) liegt.
Ich persönlich habe seit dem Kurssprung nichts großes verkauft und kaufe definitiv nochmal nach wenn es in Richtung 18-19? fallen sollte, da ich von der Guidance Erhöhung mit Q3 ausgehe.
just wanted to flag that the EV transition is clearly gaining momentum, following Tesla and VW the mega company Stellantis (consists of brands like Peugeot, RAM, Opel etc) yesterday announced a plan to invest ? 30bn in 2021-2025 for the EV transition. The plan includes 70% of EU sold vehicles to be electric, long range (500-800km per charge), fast charging (!) and 5 EV dedicated production sites in EU/US ("Gigafactories").
To my ears this all heavily sounds like SIC is ramping hard during that period until 2025.
This article is well written on the current and future applications of GaN. Aixtron's Song Wei's comments that there are not enough GaN supply for fast charging applications alone and TSMC expanded 16 MOCVD's are worth noting. -------------------------------------------------- A compound annual growth rate of 70%! GaN is quickly charged and used in data centers and electric vehicles. The future market is indefinite 2021-7-8 10:44 | Views: 25 | Comments: 0
Abstract : In recent years, the third-generation semiconductor GaN has developed rapidly. According to different substrate materials, GaN is mainly divided into several categories: Si-based GaN is currently mainly used in power periods and is gradually adopted by some RF devices; sapphire lining GaN on the bottom, mainly used in LEDs, the application has been very mature, GaN on SiC, the main application...
In recent years, the rapid development of the third generation of GaN semiconductor, depending on the substrate material, divided into several categories GaN: Si group GaN, mainly during the power applied, the partially gradually RF devices using; blue sapphire substrate GaN is mainly used in LEDs, and the application has been very mature. SiC-based GaN is mainly used in radio frequency devices of base stations, such as Huawei and ZTE. GaN-based products are mainly used in some high-energy laser devices.
At present, GaN is relatively popular in consumer applications such as charging and fast charging, and is gradually being introduced into industrial fields such as data centers, as well as in the application of electric vehicles. The future market space is unlimited. According to Yolo's data, the gallium nitride power device market in 2020 It is about 46 million U.S. dollars and is expected to grow to 1.1 billion U.S. dollars by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 69%.
After being brought into fire by fast charging, GaN applications began to expand to data centers, electric vehicles and other fields.
At the silicon-based gallium nitride industry development summit held by Innocent Technology not long ago, Yang Jianrong, deputy general manager of Aiji Micro, said that In the 1990s, some companies and institutions actually started to develop GaN products. However, until 2008, Toyota announced that it was preparing to use GaN and SiC in automobiles, which started to ignite the upsurge of compound semiconductors, and the development of GaN has also risen sharply. When it reached its apex around 2012, EPC released low-voltage GaN power devices, Transpherm released high-voltage GaN power devices, TSMC also released 6-inch GaN foundries, and IMEC released 8-inch silicon-based GaN technology. Many companies have entered this market.
However, because GaN has very high requirements for power, epitaxy, etc., at that time, the stability and ecology of GaN power devices were not fully developed. Later, the development declined greatly. In fact, there were some actions at this stage. Around 2014, Infineon After acquiring IR, Navitas launched 600V GaN chips around 2015. At the end of 2015, this wave of GaN development fell to the bottom.
However, GaN is still considered to be a technology with great potential. Innosys Technology was established at the bottom of the valley in 2015. After several years of slow development, it will not be until February 2020 that the Xiaomi Mi 10 launch conference will use GaN chargers. In September of the same year, the country included GaN in the 14th Five-Year Plan. In April of this year, IMEC also announced the launch of silicon-based GaN epitaxial wafers that can reach 1200V. The GaN industry is on the eve of its explosion.
The application scenarios of power GaN mainly include consumer, industrial and electric vehicles. Consumer products are mainly ultra-small power adapters. In addition, GaN can be used in notebooks and mobile phones. For example, more than 10 DC-DCs may be used in mobile phones. Power devices including all these can be converted into GaN. ; Industrial products have now begun to be used in servers, power supplies, photovoltaics and other products; applications on electric vehicles have also begun to increase, including OBC, DC-DC, etc.
At present, there are relatively many applications of 650V. For example, charging heads. Products around 900V are slowly being adopted. The last IMEC also introduced 1200V GaN epitaxial wafers, indicating that the scope of application of GaN is continuously expanding. At present, fast charging can be said to be the most well-known application product of GaN. At the Hong Kong Electronics Show in April 2019, there were 8 new gallium nitride chargers exhibited. In February 2020, the Xiaomi 10 launch conference, Lei Jun showed gallium nitride Technology, the introduction of 65W fast charging, directly boosted the popularity of gallium nitride fast charging, and the popularity of gallium nitride fast charging has also penetrated into the hearts of consumers. According to statistics, as of the end of last month, nearly 20 models of 30W GaN chargers have been launched in China, which means that GaN has begun to spread to the low-end. This indicates that GaN has basically opened up the fast charging market.
The application of GaN in the data center can be said to be quite advantageous. The traditional Si power supply cabinet requires almost 10 power supplies and 30 services, while GaN power supplies are not only small because of their high energy density, but 6 power supplies can drive 34 servers. The data center?s original site cost is very high. If the energy density can be increased, more space can be left for servers, which not only solves the cost problem, but also saves money. The application of GaN in the data center must be very good in the future. development of.
The application of GaN in electric vehicles is also quite promising. 48V-12V DC-DC, OBC, traction inverter, etc. in automobiles can use a large number of GaN devices. It can be seen that many automobiles have introduced GaN applications in recent years. At the Tokyo Motor Show in 2019, Nagoya University and Toyota jointly developed an all-gallium nitride car, GaN used in traction inverters, DC-DC, car chargers, and LED lighting. In the near future, you can also see different institutions and Manufacturers have launched many GaN solutions for vehicles, including STMicroelectronics, Anshi, IMEC and TI.
The models of GaN companies mainly include IDM and Fabless. For example, Infineon, TI, ST, Panasonic, ON Semiconductor, PI, InnoSec, etc. are all IDM, and EPC, Dialog, Navitas, etc. are Fabless models. In terms of interest rates, IDM?s business model will have more advantages. For example, 6-inch silicon-based GaN, without packaging costs, the silicon substrate accounts for a relatively low proportion, about 5-8%, and the epitaxy and the substrate account for the entire 90% of the cost, of which gallium nitride epitaxial wafers account for 40-50%, and gallium nitride devices account for 45-55%. If it is only a Fabless manufacturer, both devices and epitaxy need to be outsourced, and the overall gross profit level is relatively low, so The industry believes that the IDM model can have a higher gross profit margin.
GaN is on the eve of the outbreak. In addition to fast charging, there are five killer applications.
Currently GaN investment is hot. Is it a bubble or is it really the eve of the outbreak? Yu Kunshan, secretary general of the third-generation semiconductor industry technology innovation strategic alliance, said that from two perspectives, five years ago, the investment in GaN was very small. At that time, many companies were in a difficult state and were in a state of maintaining and surviving. Now they are investing Very large. Last year, the entire third-generation semiconductor industry investment including silicon carbide and gallium nitride, a total of 23 investments, a total investment of about 69.4 billion, of which 55 billion of silicon carbide, and 144 of gallium nitride related investments 100 million yuan.
Although it looks like a lot now, it is not much when I look back in five years. The investment may increase to 10 times at that time. For the development of GaN, the investment is only the beginning of the construction of factories, and more investment is needed to maintain the industry in the future. Yu Kunshan believes that to jointly build an industrial ecology, create application solutions, and bridge the gap, it means that a huge investment of resources is required, and it also needs to include government policy support, industrial capital investment, and more. Standard supporting equipment, etc., on the whole, from the perspective of development, GaN has more room for future development, and investors, practitioners, and alliances will also have more room for future development.
Song Wei, President of Aixtron, shared the market situation of GaN power devices from the perspective of equipment manufacturers. Aixtron is the world's mainstream silicon-based GaN MOCVD equipment manufacturer with a market share of more than 90%. Song Wei mentioned that the current GaN market is in short supply. According to their understanding, the current predicament facing European and American mainstream design companies is that they do not have enough capacity to support the development of the market. These design manufacturers rely heavily on TSMC and other foundries to provide capacity. Silicon-based GaN is actually on the eve of the explosion. From the perspective of the application of fast charging, it is in short supply, because the design company's production capacity is far from enough. At the beginning of this year, TSMC announced a large-scale expansion plan and announced that it would purchase 16 units. MOCVD expands its production capacity, but it will take a long time from the procurement of equipment to the ability to supply the production capacity to the market.
Fast charging is popular, but has GaN ushered in a real killer application? Yao Lunhui, head of the charging head website, said that it is certain that fast charging is a very big killer application. There are about 5 billion terminal devices in the world that require fast charging. This is a very large market composed of many products, such as mobile phones. Probably there are billions of units shipped. Tablet PCs have an annual shipment of 200 million to 200 million units. Notebook computers and maintain have about 100 million shipments. Now fast charging has been integrated into all aspects of life.
In addition to fast charging, there should be at least five killer applications. Each market does not have a shipment of hundreds of billions of units each year, and a total of hundreds of millions of units are shipped each year. The first is the PC market. Game charging notebooks and office computers are all important application markets for GaN. Each PC notebook probably needs more than dozens of GaN. The second is the charger for electric bicycles. The chargers of bicycles are very large and require relatively high volume and efficiency. This is a market worth paying attention to; the third is the outdoor power supply market that replaces fuel generators, because the country now promotes oil-to-electricity, because outdoor power sources are usually Inverter circuits are needed. The two-way inverter market will be another killer application of GaN; the fourth is a protection circuit for lithium batteries; and the fifth is a display with very high requirements for volume and thickness. So these and fast charging together form 6 killer apps.
The use of GaN for fast charging is just a small test, and there is still a very large application space in the future. Yu Kunshan said that it is mainly based on these considerations. First, GaN technology is still improving. Now the most common application is 650V. Subsequent applications of 700V, 800V, and 1200V will also gradually become popular. As the voltage increases, performance and on-resistance drop again. The technology achieved by GaN is only the first step, and the application space of GaN will be greater in the future.
Second, the country is making efforts to achieve carbon peaks and carbon neutrality. The country's strategic measures will also enhance the application of new technologies. From the perspective of home appliance companies, according to a previous survey of home appliance companies, it needs to purchase 10 billion yuan a year This company can provide 1 billion yuan of power modules. The remaining 9 billion yuan of power modules are basically provided by foreign capital. This is just a company. If it expands to all electrical industries, including data centers, electric vehicles , Energy Internet, etc., the market space can be imagined, and the two-carbon strategy will give birth to a huge GaN market.
Third, the application of fast charging is equivalent to the leader in the application of GaN material technology. It is precisely because of the application of fast charging that it has greatly promoted the development of the GaN industry chain. Under such guidance, the GaN industry ecology will gradually improve. The application of the aspect will also mature accordingly.