"So, I think what'll happen here and if you take a step back, in Durham alone, we put in over a 100 tools in the last year to support higher demand"
richtig interpretiere. Es war unser Verständnis here, dass Cree definitiv SiC Kunde bei Aix ist. Aber 100 Tools hat Aix sicher nicht an Cree geliefert. Wenn es denn um SiC Tools handelt. Wie ist deine Interpretation?
Interesting news in the SIC space overnight with On Semi acquiring GTAT for 415m $.
Not sure if GTAT generates significant sales at this moment so the valuation is arguably high. Shows that industry players focus more on more on SIC while I remember that 2 years ago Sic and it?s future was still strongly debated.
Hat jemand etwas woanders gelesen? Ich halte nicht viel vom Aktionär und auch von Gerüchten. Dennoch bin ich neugirieg, ob der Aktionär einfach so Schmarrn schreibt nur um dem Artikel mehr Gewicht zu verleihen. Das würde mich nicht allzuviel wundern.
Interesting move in the stock today, intraday at -8%. I think its a nice little buying opportunity and interestingly the stock has fallen back to the level of 1-2 weeks ago on no news.
The underlying business remains very strong in my opinion and 2022 shapes up to be a decent year as well. So with good Q3/Q4 ahead I think the stock may continue to move higher if you have some patience.
a very interesting Bloomberg Article on Chinese companies continuing their massive spending plans on gaining Chip Independence from the USA - a theme I have flagged over 1 year ago and that I think is in full swing with Aixtron and PVA Tepla being major beneficiaries as they deliver crucial technology.
@CWL: Do you know SMIC? Anything to add wrt to Aixtron? Do they need Aixtron tools or is ASML etc more in focus?
By Bloomberg News (Bloomberg) -- Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. aims to spend $8.87 billion building a new plant on the outskirts of Shanghai, a major expansion in capacity at a time China?s trying to build a world-class chip industry. SMIC has signed an agreement to establish a 100,000 per- month wafer plant in the Lin-Gang Special Area, a free trade zone run by the city. The facility will focus on more mature technology of 28 nanometers or older, the company said in a filing. It plans to set up a joint venture with registered capital of $5.5 billion with Shanghai?s government to oversee the project, of which the company will own at least 51%. SMIC?s shares jumped as much as 2.7% in Hong Kong and 4.8% in Shanghai. The envisioned plant comes on top of a $2.35 billion factory SMIC?s planning for south China?s Shenzhen that will be able to make as many as 40,000 12-inch wafers per month. Together, the projects represent an effort to shore up its lead in domestic chipmaking while furthering the country?s broader chip ambitions. The Shanghai facility?s mature-node chips could be targeted at the auto-making industry, which is struggling with an endemic shortage of the semiconductors they need to power electric vehicles and in-car systems. Shanghai-based SMIC is China?s best hope for gaining clout in advanced chips used in devices from smartphones to base stations. Its capacity and technical know-how are crucial to helping Beijing overcome a U.S.-led effort to curb its tech ambitions. But the company has been unable to get key machinery to keep advancing its technology, after the U.S. placed it under sanctions last year on national security grounds. Read more: Xi Taps Top Deputy to Lead China?s Chip Battle Against U.S. Beijing is moving swiftly to cut a dependence on the West for crucial components like chips, an issue that became more urgent after a global shortage of semiconductors worsened during the pandemic. Chinese President Xi Jinping has tapped close confidante Liu He, the economic czar whose sprawling portfolio spans trade to finance and technology, to spearhead the development of so- called third-generation or compound semiconductor chip development. He?s now leading the formulation of a series of financial and policy support for the technology, Bloomberg News has reported. SMIC?s newest plant will be built in a free-trade zone in the southeastern suburbs of Shanghai, an enlargement of the tariff-free areas Xi originally approved to attract foreign investment and trade. The company is expanding because its existing plants are running at or close to full capacity and its executives are counting on being able to procure equipment to make chips based on more mature technologies, despite U.S. sanctions.
Irgendwie scheint hier einiges im Argen zu liegen. Ich selbst habe nichts veranlasst und Ariva meldet sich auch nicht mehr zu diesem Problem. Zuletzt vor einer Woche - man hat mich nciht vergessen und arbeitet an dem Problem.
In Germany the worlds largest Auto trade show, IAA, just started and so far there are some articles that showcase the adoption of SIC in the industry, for example see ZF or Bosch below. Supports the view that SIC ramp up is coming over 2022/23. Regards, Fel
Sorry for spamming, but more news on SIC that support my thesis that the industry is really starting to organise itself ahead of volume ramp over the next years. Here a press release from Applied Materials.
Maybe others like @Baggo, DLG or CWL can add more expertise?
NEW APPLIED MATERIALS TECHNOLOGIES HELP LEADING SILICON CARBIDE CHIPMAKERS ACCELERATE THE TRANSITION TO 200MM WAFERS AND INCREASE CHIP PERFORMANCE AND POWER EFFICIENCY
Key to the world?s best electric vehicle power trains, silicon carbide chips are transitioning to larger, 200mm wafers which boost output to meet growing global demand Applied?s new 200mm CMP system precisely removes silicon carbide material from wafers to help maximize chip performance, reliability and yield Applied?s new ?hot implant? technology for silicon carbide chips injects ions with minimum damage to crystalline structures, thereby maximizing power generation and device yield
Have you got any idea about the timeline behind their decisions? Do I understand correctly that so far they are not active in SIC? If they are not, it would mean that they have to decide for Aixtron or Tokyo Electron equipment (or maybe both to run dual sourcing).
Given Chinas progress in EV's one should really expect them to place first orders relatively soon in order to follow the market quickly, dont you think?
Would be interesting to read and discuss more about Foxconn.
: AlsterResearch Round Table mit der Aixtron IR
ich habe am 14.09. am o.g. Event teilgenommen und folgende Notizen für mich gemacht.
Der Einfachheit halber stelle ich einfach mein Word Dokument hier ein.
12 Teilnehmer ? davon 2 mal AlsterResearch 1 Aixtron IR zu zweit Dauer 80 Minuten
Halbleiter (Silizium, TSMC, Intel, Speicherchips) sind nicht das Gleiche wie Verbindungshalbleiter die aus versch. Materialien der Periodenklassen III und V zusammengesetzt werden. Aixtron stellt Maschinen zur Herstellung von Verbindungshalbleitern her.
Financials Oliver Wojahn covered die Aktie seit August 2001. Damals buy Ziel ? 31 ? heute buy Ziel ? 29 ohne MicroLED opportunity eingepreist zu haben. Credit rating: A up from BBB current cash position invested in very conservative Fonds Happy with order guidance range of 440-480 (last update was for a range of 420 to 460 maybe GP mistakenly mentioned the increased figures already) Es gibt noch einiges zu tun, aber wir sind happy mit der Guidance ESG Funds are increasingly interested in investing
LED Hydroculture (Licht und water purification) ROY für Mini Displays
Micro LED - Alle Farben ? RGB auch blau
-§Hat noch keine große Effekte aber wenn es kommt, dann kommt es
-§Wirft langsam seine Schatten voraus.
-§Industrie geht langsam davon aus, dass das kommen wird - Apple watch maybe 2023
o§Fehlerfreie wafer (Vorteil Aixtron) und
o§Transfer Technologie im nachgelagerten Elektrifikations-Prozess
Laser 3D- Sensing - Apple Face ID Handy introduction führte zu einem Oversupply im Markt. Wird jetzt langsam verdaut. Next Application: Handy world side In allen Glasfaserkabeln zur optischen Datenübertragung stecken die Produkte die auf Aixtron Maschinen hergestellt wurden.
: AlsterResearch Round Table mit der Aixtron IR
Leistungselektronik GaN bis 600 Volt und SiC > 600 Volt sind die beiden Technologien an Start
GaN und 5G Auf Aixtron Maschinen hergestellte GaN Chips findet man
-§Schnelladen in Handy-chargern: Infineon, TMSC, wurden genannt
-§Server Farmen bis 600 Volt
-§Auf allen 5G Sendemasten 80% Marktanteil und neue Tools in der Entwicklung (Vollautomatisiert) Nächste Anwendungen: Haushaltsgeräte ?? Derzeit 6 Silizium Chips 2 pro Phase könnten durch einen GaN Chip ersetzt werden.
GaAS chips 3G, 4G Empfangs-Chips in Handys von Aixtron Maschinen 5G Empfangschips noch nicht da noch nicht die gesamte Bandbreite des 5G Übertragungsspektrums genutzt wird.
SIC Jahresvolume 30-50 Anlagen/Jahr für die nächsten 5 Jahre Preise 3; 3,5; bis 4 Millionen Euro je nach Ausstattung Die Technik wird immer dort genutzt wo Ströme oder hohe Wattzahlen anfallen. Derzeit ist der main inverter in electric vehicles (EV) Silizium basiert. In Zukunft wird das SiC sein weil das Strom und platzsparender ist. Market Leader ist Tokyo Elektron. Kleinere Mitbewerber LPE Italien und ein weiters Unternehmen Es gibt 5 große Kunden:
- Cree - Infineon § -§ST Micro
- Rohm§ Einer ist ein jahrelanger treuer Aixtron Bestandskunde (Cree wurde nicht genannt) und man hat Epiworld (CN) und Bosch als Neukunden gewinnen können.
Jetzt arbeitet man daran Tokyo Elektron die Marktanteile abzujagen durch
-§lower cost of ownership
-§upgrade Möglichkeit from 6 to 8? Man muss den nächsten Capex Cycle der Kunden für die Umstellung erwischen um die neue Aufträge zu erhalten.
The 6" plant would be purchased by the end of the year. There is no timeline mentioned but certainly time is the essence of catching this SiC ramp.
There are a lot of SiC activities. It takes a long time for auto qualification. Therefore the initial epi tools have to be installed at the IDM's and/or their epi suppliers very soon to meet their qualification timelines to the auto makers which are pushing out EV's ASAP. For Aixtron it has to get the G5 WW C in now for the qualification phase.
Demand for telecom base stations, converters, and charging stations is creating demand for components and devices powered by third-generation semiconductors GaN and SiC.
According to TrendForce, the GaN power market will undergo the highest magnitude of growth with revenues for 2021 to reach $83 million, an impressive 73 percent YoY increase. Going forward, annual GaN power devices revenue is expected to grow at a 78 percent CAGR and reach $850 million in 2025.
Consumer electronics, NEVs, and telecom/data centres, comprise the three largest sources of GaN power devices consumption, at 60 percent, 20 percent, and 15 percent, respectively.
TrendForce finds that about ten smartphone OEMs have released more than 18 models of smartphones equipped with fast charging capability, while notebook manufacturers are also indicating a willingness to adopt fast charging for notebook computers.
Annual SiC revenue, on the other hand, is expected to grow at a 38 percent CAGR and reach $3.39 billion in 2025, with NEVs, solar power generation/storage, and charging stations representing the top three largest source of SiC power device consumption, at 61 percent, 13 percent, and 9 percent, respectively. For the NEV industry, in particular, SiC power devices are most widely used in powertrain inverters, OBCs (on board chargers), and DC-DC converters.
IDMs from Europe, the US, and Japan control substrate supply
Due to their relative difficulty in epitaxial growth and the fact that the industry is moving from 6-inch towards 8-inch substrates as the mainstream, third-generation semiconductor GaN and SiC substrates are 5-20 times more expensive to manufacture compared to traditional 8-inch and 12-inch Si substrates.
Most substrate materials are, at the moment, controlled by major IDMs as US-based Cree and II-VI, Japan-based Rohm, and Europe-based STMicroelectronics. In response to this, certain Chinese suppliers, including SICC and Tankeblue, have successively entered the substrate market with the support of China's 14th five-year plan, with an aim to accelerate China's goal of semiconductor self-sufficiency.
Although substrate suppliers from Europe, the US, and Japan enjoy an early presence in the market and possess relatively mature process technologies, TrendForce believes that Taiwanese suppliers still hold certain competitive advantages.
For instance, not only do Taiwanese companies have vast experiences in silicon development, but Taiwan is also home to a comprehensive upstream/downstream silicon supply chain. In addition to these aforementioned advantages, Taiwan is further aided by policies that promote domestic material supply, design, and technological development. Taiwan could therefore achieve its goal of becoming a centre of advanced semiconductor fabrication that derives its strength from a gradually maturing front-end substrate and epitaxy industry chain, as well as mid- and back-end competencies in chip design, manufacturing, and packaging.
Currently, two major strategic alliances, led by Hermes-Epitek (with subsidiaries EPI and EPISIL), and SAS (with subsidiaries GW, AWSC, CWT, and ATC) are attempting to maximise their efforts in Taiwan's lacking substrate industry. Furthermore, TAISIC, jointly funded by KENMEC and TAINERGY, has submitted 4-inch SiC substrates for qualification and is actively investing in 6-inch SiC substrate R&D.
: Micron outlook weak, Capex guidance raised
US memory player Micron reported last night with the sales guidance below expectations (guide 7.65bn vs consensus at 8.6bn) and stock -4% as a result.
However they raise capex spending into their next FY (i.e. 2022) to 11-12bn after spending 9.7bn in 2021, so a 15% increase at mid-point.
Unlikely that this is a direct read-x to Aixtron but I note that there have recently been concerns in the market that we are reaching the peak level in Capex for the semi industry. Aixtron (as capex customer) should hopefully be different given the shift to "next gen" semis, but nevertheless it is important to be aware of the market concerns for the sector overall.
For Aixtron, analysts currently expect 8.6% sales growth for 2022 to ? 466m and 107m EBIT (23% Margin). On these estimates the stock currently trades on 20x EBIT which is in-line with its historic valuation (range of 17-23x). So in essence we have to hope for further strong orders/revenue growth in 2022 to drive the stock price further. Given that we stand at the early stage of GAN/SIC/Micro LED adoption with 3D sensing and datacenter/telco remaining stable contributors and 5G the wildcard, I would hope/think that top-line growth remains stronger than 8.6%.. but its hard to say!