gleichzeitig fällt der Ölpreis deutlich. Ist das eine Wiederholung des Mai-Ausverkaufs, bei dem alle Assets gleichzeitig auf den Markt geworfen wurden (wegen Risikoaversion und Zinsängsten)? Interessanterweise stieg der Dollar auch im Mai, eben weil US-Spekulanten ihre Währungs-Trades (in hochverzinsten Ramsch-Währungen) auflösten und die Dollars "heim ins Reich" holten. Zurzeit droht in Ecuador eine Staatspleite wie 2002 in Argentinien (siehe unten).
http://www.nadir.org/nadir/periodika/jungle_world/_2002/48/16a.htm
Der Artikel unten, obwohl aus USA, ist erfrischend klar und unterscheidet sich wohltuend vom nichtssagend-süffisanten Bullen-Gewäsch à la "neuer Höchststand beim Dow", das sonst allerorten die Kanäle verstopft. Der Kern-Satz im Artikel entspricht meiner obigen These, dass der momentane Ausverkauf bei den Rohstoffen/Commodities nichts Gutes verheißt. Der Artikel bringt das umgekehrt zum Ausdruck: The fear of a hard-landing in the U.S. is probably overblown and commodity prices are expected to return to record levels.
Dreht man diesen Satz ins Positive, hieße das, dass der jetzige Ausverkauf bei den Commodities (und letztlich auch den Weichwährungen) eine Folge der Angst vor einer "harten Landung" der US-Wirtschaft ist - also wie im Mai Ausdruck von Risikoaversion.
Hier die momentane Stimmung bei den Weichwährungen:
Emerging market currencies poised to fall
Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America face political risk
By Wanfeng Zhou, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:46 PM ET Oct 10, 2006
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - After a rocky period in May and a sell-off in late September, emerging market currencies are in trouble again.
Political uncertainty and deficit problems, notably in Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America, have resurfaced as major concerns, analysts say. The situation could worsen in the event that a protracted slowdown in the U.S. begins to affect global growth.
The market has seen a clear change of sentiment in September. Investors scaled back risky positions amid political crises in Poland, Hungary and Brazil, falling commodity prices, and speculation about an Ecuadoran debt default. Those factors triggered sell-offs in some high-yielding and high-volatility currencies including the Turkish lira, the South African rand, the Brazilian real and the Icelandic krona.
"Emerging market currencies are more risky than in previous months," said Kurt Hoeksema, chief foreign exchange dealer at Global Forex Trading. "People have been pulling money out of emerging market investments and moving it into U.S. Treasurys. This is evidenced in...a surge in U.S. Treasury bonds."
The outlook was further complicated this week after North Korea declared that it had carried out a nuclear test, raising the level of geopolitical risk across the world. The news sparked a slump in the South Korean won and knocked the yen to an eight-month low against the dollar. See full story.
"The test is negative for Asian currencies in general and may add to the focus on political nervousness in emerging markets." said Thomas Harr, a senior analyst at Danske Bank.
Crucial October
October, said Daniel Tenengauzer, a market strategist at Merrill Lynch, is crucial for emerging currencies. That's because positions tend to change ahead of the year-end as the outlook for the global economy and inflation becomes clearer. This year, a series of localized events have given investors more reasons than ever to take a second look at their portfolios.
While the recent correction in the Hungarian forint, the Polish zloty and the Brazilian real "seems to be more anecdotal...surrounding localized phenomena," investors have become concerned over the potential of another wave of emerging market contagion, said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at The Bank of New York. In Hungary, anti-government protesters over the weekend continued to call for the ouster of Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany, after he admitted on a leaked tape that he and his government had lied during April's parliamentary election. Poland sank deeper into crisis last week after news that an aide to the Prime Minister was videotaped offering bribes for party allegiance. The Czech Republic's new center-right government lost a vote of confidence just a month after being sworn into office. "Political uncertainty is definitely rising in Eastern Europe, and that may be more a trend, instead of just being short-term," said Harr, who's advising investors to significantly reduce exposure to those markets. "We see certain parallels between the current situation in Central and Eastern Europe and the Asian crisis in 1997," he said. "The markets of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania look especially shaky."
Harr said there's a risk that a major sell-off in one market will feed through in other emerging markets through the hedge fund channel. "Losses in one market may spark risk reduction and sell-offs in other markets," he said.
Investors should also be cautious about Latin American markets because they could come under pressure as the Brazilian election goes into a second round. "Latam presidential elections and currency crises have historically gone hand in hand," said Woolfolk. The Brazilian real has also faced pressure amid falling commodity prices and pre-election jitters.
Deficits weigh
Currencies associated with weak fundamentals will struggle in the months ahead. The lira, the rand, the krona, and the forint are all being hurt by whopping current account deficits of at least 5% of GDP [USA hat über 6 % - A.L.] and are highly dependent on capital inflows to balance their books.
With the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan in an interest-rate tightening mode, "the flows that have been financing these types of current account deficits will become a little bit more scarce, or may partially dry up," said Merrill's Tenengauzer.
In addition, "we wouldn't be surprised to hear more hawkishness from China" in spite of its recent interest rate hikes and the appreciation of the yuan to cool the economy, he said. "Those are the key providers of liquidity in the world," he said.
The lira, whose vulnerabilities have come to the fore during the market correction this year, remains at greater risk, analysts say. "With still the largest external financing needs among emerging markets, Turkey remains exposed to a renewed increase in global risk aversion," said Claire Dissaux, head of emerging market research at Calyon, in a research note. Tensions stemming from the European Union negotiation process could "exacerbate the volatility for Turkish assets" ahead of the release of a European Commission report in early November, Dissaux said.
But in the near-term, expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Turkish central bank to rein in inflation - currently running at about 10% -- may help alleviate some of the pressure on the lira, said Ilker Domac, an analyst at Citigroup. The central bank, which has hiked rates by a cumulative 4.25% since June, is expected to lift rates to 18% from the current 17.5% before the end of the year, according to Citigroup forecasts.
Commodity plays
A deeper-than-expected slowdown in the U.S., which may spill over into other economies and undermine global demand for commodities, is one of the biggest factors weighing on emerging market plays in the coming months, analysts say.
The recent drop in bond yields is especially worrying for these markets because the decline was driven by recession fears, Danske Bank's Harr said. In the past, lower Treasury yields tended to make higher-yielding emerging markets more attractive.
Falling energy prices since July have hurt emerging economies and their currencies, said GFT's Hoeksema. For example, the Mexican peso weakened in September as sharply lower oil prices hurt its trade balance. A further softening of energy prices will be especially negative for commodity rich Latin American markets, Harr said.
Harr said U.S. economic data in the coming months are likely to stay soft, maintaining the negative market sentiment toward the U.S. economy. Financial markets don't expected the Federal Reserve raise interest rates any further and some observer have forecast the Fed's next move will be a cut. But Bank of New York's Woolfolk said the fear of a hard-landing in the U.S. is probably overblown and commodity prices are expected to return to record levels.
Says Calyon's Dissaux, "Emerging markets have been riding the wave of a commodity boom and strong risk appetite over the past two years. But, with a U.S.-led growth deceleration under way and fresh evidence of an investment landing in China, emerging markets will have to weather the impact from peaking commodity prices on their budget and external balances."
Wanfeng Zhou is a markets reporter in New York. |
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