https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/...cine-stock-bubble-burst-2020-08-30
"Has The COVID-19 Vaccine Stock Bubble Burst?
(..) COVID-19 vaccine stocks, though, have run into a rough patch in August. Shares of Heat Biologics, Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Moderna, Novavax, and Vaxart have essentially crashed this month (see the chart below). And even bigger players like AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, and Sanofi have all pulled back significantly fromt their 52-week highs over the past four weeks. What sparked this abrupt exodus out of COVID-19 vaccine stocks? Several headwinds rattled coronavirus vaccine stocks this month. The five most important developments were the following: - On Aug. 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the approval of the world's first COVID-19 vaccine dubbed Sputnik V.
- The political gridlock in Washington D.C. has stalled the second tranche of funding for vaccine research at the federal level.
- AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, and Pfizer may all have a vaccine on the market in record time. Investors, in turn, appear to be concerned that smaller players like Heat Biologics, Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Novavax, and Vaxart might get left out in the cold from a market share standpoint.
- On Aug. 23, President Trump, together with the Food and Drug Administration, announced the emergency use authorization of convalescent plasma therapy for hospitalized COVID-19 patients. This news seemed to trigger a migration of cash into convalescent plasma therapy stocks at the expense of vaccine-oriented biotechs.
- On Aug. 26, Abbott Laboratories got a green light from regulators for its $5 COVID-19 test, which can yield results in as little as 15 mins. This ultra-cheap and super fast diagnostic might dramatically curtail the spread of COVID-19 -- perhaps lowering the long-term commercial opportunity for vaccine companies.
The most important issue to understand is that multiple vaccines are probably going to be required to truly slow the spread of COVID-19. There will be no one-size-fits-all vaccine (..) Now, there is still plenty of money to be made within this group of equities, despite this rather swift, niche-wide regression to the mean in August. Biotech investors, though, will arguably need to take a long-term view of the COVID-19 vaccine landscape in order to separate the wheat from the chaff. "
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/...ere-be-multiple-winners-2020-08-30
"knowing the supply problem that lies ahead -- even if a few vaccine candidates are approved -- it's likely governments will have to seek doses from several vaccine makers well into the future, and they know that. (..)
So, to answer our question: Yes, there is room for more than one winner in this vaccine race. But these winners may not all cross the finish line at the same time. The one that does, though, is likely to see its shares climb. Companies that are ahead from a timeline perspective -- such as Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Pfizer/BioNTech -- stand a good chance if the data cooperate. The key point to keep in mind here, regarding the companies close to the finish line and those further behind, is this: Clinical trial results will be the first benchmark to determine the winners of this race. So, if you're looking to get an edge on who will dominate the market, be on the lookout for clinical trial reports this fall."
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