29-April-10 01:59
Current fair value: $72 to $260
Assuming DNDN has 2012 revenues of $2 billion (about the official estimate, but probably a lowball), then it implies a current fair value price per share of about
as follows:
Revenue: $2B
COGS: 30%
Provenge Profit: $1.4B
Other operating expense: $600M
2012 Profit: $800M
Shares: 135M
2012 Profit per share: $5.92
2012 P/E: 15
2012 PPS: $89
2011 PPS (10% discount): $80
2010 PPS (10% discount): $72
Of course, this assumes zero value of Neuvenge and every other DNDN asset and opportunity. It assigns no additional value for the novelty of Provenge, and the difficulty of ever having generic competition for it; i.e., it’s virtually a perpetual exclusive license. It assumes nothing for potential take out value. It assumes nothing for the very likely possibility that the number above are a low ball. Remember, may credible commentators believe Provenge alone could generate $5B in revenue (or about $21.50 profit per share), which if commonly accepted would make a reasonable value for 2010 PPS about $260.
by okos_fiu
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