aus einer aktuellen Konferenzpräsentation kann man etwas zu den Verkaufszahlen erfahren, die seitens der Firma erwartet werden: Tuesday, September 28, 2010 MannKind, Ready to Shake-Up the Diabetes Market This morning, Al Mann provided some great updates at the JMP Securities Healthcare Conference. A replay of the presentation can be heard here: http://www.investors.mannkindcorp.com/...c=147953&eventID=3339899 My take is that MannKind continues to be bullish on approval by 12/29 and are working to prepare for launch subject to that approval. Here are some important highlights I took from the conference. PARTNERSHIP: Down to 5 partners in negotiation. They had 6 in the mix just a week or so ago. They want to get it down to 3-4 before final negotiations. The partner from last year is still in play and they could sign a deal with them within weeks if they are selected. I continue to believe MNKD will ink a deal prior to PDUFA so as to not to delay a launch. If I’m a Potential Partner, I want to get this deal done quickly as well to get it off the street. What we don’t know is who those partners are and if we are talking US-rights only, worldwide or select parts of the world. I think AZN may be one along with SNY. SNY would be an excellent fit of course and would be able to maximize Afrezza sales the fastest. However, given the clear advantages Afrezza has over existing RAA along with the convenience of the device, it will practically sell itself at some point. As I’ve said before, in the next few years, Afrezza will destroy the existing RAA insulin market and become the new gold standard for Prandial insulin delivery. The Big Pharma who partners with MannKind will enjoy Billions in revenue while putting the hurt on Novo Nordisk and Lilly. It will be fun to watch this come to fruition in the coming months and years. NEW STUDIES: New trials filed are to support EU approval and to demonstrate the pulmonary impact of the Gen2 inhaler. MedTone effect was about 2% (FDA requires under 30%) and they think Dreamboat is only about a .5% impact to pulmonary function. PRODUCTION: Danbury will be able to serve 1.8M patients at full capacity (will require another $100M to get it to full capacity.) That will equate to $3.5B at full capacity if priced about the same as RAA. At launch, they will support 400-500K patients which will generate $800-900M in revenue. Al thinks MNKD will need their own insulin factory by 2016, which they will have built. That would mean they expect to deplete their $10B worth of finished product within 5 years of launch along with the rest of the options for insulin they have. That is a lot of revenue between 2011 and 2016! WORLDWIDE DISTRIBUTION: There is already a small country that wants to buy $200M worth of Afrezza a year from MNKD! Impressive. Shipping costs are $1M a month so they are going to look to have a filling station in that country. This could be the preferred distribution process for the rest of the world. I was beginning to become very paranoid about further delays and the status of productizing Afrezza. After listing to Al’s updates this morning, I’m more excited than I’ve ever been about the potential for Afrezza. Of course I wish the stock price reflected that potential but it will soon enough. If MNKD can deliver the types of revenues they expect to, it will have a market cap of several billion this time next year, if it even takes that long. As always, do your own due diligence before making any investing decisions. You never know what will happen with the FDA as I know firsthand from their handling of the ARNA Lorcaserin review. Good investing. Quelle: http://klljinvestments.blogspot.com/2010/09/...shake-up-diabetes.html |