"Potash Outlook
Global capacity lower in 2015, but rising fast in 2016
For the first time in more than a decade world potash capacity registered a decrease in 2015, dropping to 51.4 Mt K2O, due to the removal of capacity in Russia, the United States and Laos. Global potash capacity in 2016 is projected to expand by +8% over 2015, to 55.5MtK2O (94 Mt products). Canada would contribute 87% (3.6 Mt K2O) of the capacity increment. In product terms, global potassium capacity in 2016 is estimated at 94 Mt products.
North America and EECA account for 78% of world incremental supply over 2014
Global potash supply is projected at 43.5 Mt K2O in 2015, growing to 44.6 Mt K2O by year-end 2016. In terms of MOP equivalent, global potash supply would reach 74.3Mt in late 2016. Regional supply would increase in North America and EECA.
Global potash demand recovering in 2016
Following a 4% decrease in 2015, global potash demand is projected to grow by 4% in 2016, to 39.6 Mt K2O (65-66 Mt MOP equivalent).
Growing supply/demand imbalance as a result of large capacity expansions in 2015/16
The derived potash balance shows growing potential surpluses in 2015, with a potential decline to 5.0 Mt K2O in late 2016. This results from a gradual ramp-up of new capacity in Canada and Russia and firming demand.
Potential surpluses in EECA and West Asia would remain stable, but would decline in Europe. Only North America would see rising exportable ‘potential’ supply. Regional deficits are forecast to expand in all regions, with notable increases in East Asia and Latin America"
Abbaukapazität erhöht sich aber stärker als Nachfrage: "Growing supply/demand imbalance as a result of large capacity expansions in 2015/16" |
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