Mercom: Global solar PV market to grow 24% to 46 GW in 2014
Rooftop PV plant in Hong Kong Mercom describes China's goal to install 8 GW of distributed PV as "ambitious".
Mercom Capital LLC (Austin, Texas, U.S.) has increased its 2014 global solar photovoltaic (PV) market forecast 7% to 46 GW. This would represent a 24% growth on 2013 levels.
The company credits its higher prediction mostly to China's new goal to deploy 14 GW during the year. The new forecast is at the low end of Bloomberg New Energy Finance's (BNEF, New York City) January 2014 estimate of 44-51 GW for the full year 2014.
Mercom describes China's ambition to transform its market and install 8 GW of distributed generation as “aggressive”, and expects the nation to install 13 GW in 2014. The company also expects flat growth in Japan with 7-7.5 GW installed during the year, noting that the nation “faces some challenges”.
The U.S. PV market is also expected to grow 33% again in 2014 to 6.4 GW, driven by utility-scale projects and growth in the residential sector. Mercom notes that while system costs are high in the United States compared to Germany, innovative financing instruments are bringing the cost of capital down.
Chaori case sets a precedent, but little market impact
Mercom says the impact of Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co.'s default on its bonds shows that the government is serious about not bailing out companies that do not comply with its standards.
The company says that it will be watching Chinese financial markets closely, but says that the effect of this case on the larger solar market “may be minimal.”
European markets to contract
Mercom forecasts that Germany's market will contracts again to 2.75 GW, noting multiple discouraging policy moves that the nation is undertaking. These include the proposal to replace the feed-in tariff with a tender system and require direct marketing of electricity for PV plants larger than 500 kW.
The company also expects the Italian market to remain at a low level of just above 1 GW in 2014, with the UK market rising to this level as well.
Crisis in Crimea shows benefits of PV
Mercom CEO Raj Prabhu also notes that the current crisis in Crimea shows the importance of energy independence. “Energy security is a key reason for governments around the world to review their energy generation mix and invest in domestic solar and other renewables,” states Prabhu.
Finally, Mercom has confirmed its 2013 market estimate of 37 GW, only slightly below its June and September 2013 forecasts of 38 GW. Mercom updates its forecasts for key markets every three months. |