Ein früher Durchbruch bei "Bachmut" schon im Sommer HÄTTE für die Russen ein großer Gewinn sein können, beim - allzu offensichtlichen - Versuch den gesamten Donbass mit einer Zangenbewegung (im Süden Bachmut, im Nordosten Izyum) einzunehmen. Aber spätestens seit der russischen Niederlage und panikartigen Flucht bei Izyum, ist auch diese Zangenbewegung des Iwan in die Hose gegangen und reihte sich damit in die obengenannten Fehlschläge des Iwans ein. Bachmut mattered (not matters):
Yes, there was celebration, but the mood on Russian Telegram and Twitter seemed oddly subdued, none fitting the effort put into this operation. When even Prigozhin says that “the village of Bakhmut is of no strategic importance for further progress to the west,” there’s not much here to celebrate. It’s also hard to really sell the “liberation” narrative when every single resident has been driven from the city, every structure destroyed.
Bakhmut mattered when Russia dreamt of enveloping Ukrainian defenses in the Donbas with a pincer maneuver that ran through Bakhmut in the south, and Izyum in the north. But Izyum was liberated last October, rendering that strategy moot. So now Russia gets to sit in Bakhmut’s ruins for no discernible reason.
Lots of people, me included, have argued that Ukraine would be better served occupying the heights west of Bakhmut, firing into Russian troops in the town. Now, they get to do exactly that.
All those hills west of Bakhmut, except for the heights at Berkhivka, are still held by Ukraine, and Ukraine’s success on the flanks means they are likely to stay that way.
With Ukraine maintaining line-of-sight into Bakhmut, it’ll be like shooting fish in a barrel. There’s a reason that Prigozhin recorded his video in Bakhmut’s center, as opposed to the city’s more recently captured western districts. It's not safe over there. Once Wagner retreats, Russia might not even bother laying any real defense. Ukraine isn’t going to make an exposed frontal assault on the town. They aren’t wastefully stupid like Wagner. And there’s zero value in the rubble. What matters is that Russia’s offensive has culminated, they are no longer trying to advance, and any invaders that saunter into Ukraine’s line of vision will be pulverized.
Meanwhile, Prigozhin looks to redeploy his mercenary group to Sudan and other African hotspots, where he can terrorize the local population and plunder its natural resources. If Putin allows him to do that, that’s terrible news for Africa, but that’s one less chit Russia will have to play in Ukraine.
In other words, Ukraine is now in a better place than it was before Wagner’s Pyrrhic victory. War historians will debate the value of Ukraine’s fierce extended defense for decades. But for now, none of that matters. Ukraine has the upper hand.
p.s. The Chechen Kadyrovites promised to relieve Wagner forces in Bakhmut. Two weeks later, they still haven’t shown up.
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/20/2170516/...but-future-misery
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