hab vor wenigen Minuten den neuen unabhängigenk 2500 usd teuren FMB Weekly Fertilizer Report bekommen:
k+s hat diese Woche die Preise in Westeuropa für standard sMOP um 11,1% erhöht!
Die Preiserhöhungen für das Granulat MOP (ist ca. 60 euro pro tonne teurer) sollen nächste Woche bekannt werden. Dort werden
ca. 630 euro pro tonne erwartet (laut fmb vor zwei wochen).
nachdem der euro aber schwächer geworden ist und das standard mop schon um 11% zulegte kann man vielleicht sogar mit mehr als 630 euro pro tonne rechnen. Zur Erinnerung innerhalb europas ist das Kali günstiger als z.B. in indien oder brasilien, da ca. 150 usd/tonne transportkosten wegfallen.
Laut FMB ist dagegen der Preis für Nitrogen/urea Dünger stark eingebrochen. fiel in den letzten wochen um 200 usd pro tonne.
allerdings ist dies darauf zurückzuführen, dass man für die Herstellung von Nitrogen den rohstoff Ammoniak benötigt. die preise für ammoniak sind stark gefallen.
mit der preissituation auf dem kalimarkt hätte dies nichts zu tun.
Hier das wichtigste vom Report:
EU:/W. EUROPE: K+S Kali has settled contract
prices for standard MOP with all its customers now,
mostly NPK manufacturers, the last one concluding
at the beginning of this week. The price level is
understood to be very close to €600 pt cif/cfr and
all prices are within a dollar or two of each other
in northern Europe and for major buyers throughout.
Smaller buyers in southern Europe could pay
more to account for the higher freight costs.
K+S Kali switched to a three-month period for July-
September when the price was about €60 less
at around €540 pt. The new price is also for
three months to end-December. Such is the
volatility of the exchanges rates that when K+S started
its talks the €600 was equivalent to around $870 but fell
first to $845 then rose to $885 but is now back to $845
today!
K+S Kali is expected to make an announcement on
granular MOP prices next week.
K+S Kali has also settled prices for standard SOP
with the NPK manufacturers. Here the price is
very close to €760 pt cif/cfr. Again exchange rates
moved this from $1,100 at the start of the talks then
dropped to $1,070, moved up to $1,120 and is back at
$1,070 pt today.
Greece: Outside of the above, K+S Kali has also
booked a total of 6-7,000t granular SOP to bulk
blenders in this market, which will be shipped
in two or three lots over October and November.
The exact price has not been disclosed but is
known to be over €780 pt cfr, which currently is above
$1,100 pt.
Italy: There are unconfirmed reports that 5-6,000
granular SOP for delivery over September and October
has been sold to blenders in this market. Again the price
is thought to be over €780 pt cfr.
CANADA:/UNITED STATES: There has been no
change in the situation regarding the strikes at three
PotashCorp’s mines. No talks have been held or are
scheduled to be held.
The main talking point today, 2 October, has
been the free-fall in shares prices of Mosaic and
PotashCorp, down 25-30% on the day at the
time of writing. Mosiac announced it first-quarter
results (see Company News below) that, despite
being well up on a year ago, failed to meet
analysts’ forecasts. This, plus the general
weakness in the US stock market while the
bank rescue package remains in limbo, was
compounded when Merrill downgraded Mosiac and
other fertilizer stocks.
ASIA: This region has seen Crude Palm Oil
prices drop from a high of Ringgits 4,400 pt briefly
in February to a range of 3,300-3,700 during
most of the summer but then down to as low as
2,000 pt in mid-September. Since then it has most
fluctuated between Ringgits 2,100-2,300 pt. Even
at this level, CPO is highly profitable when production
costs are not much more than 1,000 pt. However, the
plantation owners are going to be cautious in view of the
fragile state of the developed economies around the
world.
Cargoes of standard MOP continue to be shipped at
$1,000 pt cfr and Canpotex has several vessels on the
water now destined for these markets, as does BPC.
Since BPC’s shipments to China and India began under
the contracts it has been short of product for other
markets in Asia.
Indonesia: BPC will be loading another cargo of 25,000t
standard MOP in the latter part of October.
Despite the CPO prices, there are reports this week that
MOP stocks are not as high as suggested by some a
few weeks ago. (habe heut übrigens bei gut 47 verkauft nachdem die kanadischen potashwerte vorbörslich noch weiter abschmierten. fundamental sieht es jedoch gut aus. selbst wenn sich die kalipreise halbieren hat k+s ein deutlich einstelliges kgv. man muss jetzt also den richtigen punkt zum wiedereinstieg finden. im momentanen börsenumfeld ist fast alles möglich wie man sieht) |
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