zu locker dem doppelten aktuellen Kurs möglich: Lupus bei WO: für den heutigen Kursanstieg ist wohl eher die DB als die Coba verantwortlich:
One step before takeout
We re-iterate our Buy and raise our price target to Euro 66 (Euro 57), as we
consider the Novartis collaboration great news for shareholders. The total deal
should well exceed $1bn, which makes MorphoSys an attractive candidate for
corporate activity, in our view. We think that Novartis will increase its 7% stake in
the future, when there is less risk for counterbids and more willingness by
Morpho auch interessant von der DB:
Upside from extended Novartis cooperation
NPV Euro 30 per share: Our DCF model suggests a total value of roughly Euro 224m (NPV
post tax) or Euro 30 per share for the extended Novartis contract.
Total value of Novartis collaboration (MorphoSys view)
�� NPV of Euro 39 per share: Based on the same methodology we have also calculated a
potential fair value from the total Novartis calculation, i.e. taking the upside of the
existing/old Novartis contract into account. We end up with roughly Euro 285m NPV,
which implies Euro 39 per share. This means that the existing relationship with Novartis
would be worth Euro 61m or Euro 9 per share.
Total value of MorphoSys collaboration (Novartis view)
NPV of Euro 79-131 per share: As discussed above we have used WACC of 13.5% and tax
rate of 35% for MorphoSys to arrive at our NPV of Euro 54 per share for the total Novartis
collaboration. If we leave all parameters mentioned above unchanged, but use the WACC of
Novartis (8.35%) and its long-term sustainable tax rate of 16.5% we end up at Euro 628m
NPV or Euro 85 per share. Note that this figures does not yet take the value of other
collaborations or AbD into account, nor MorphoSys net cash position of >Euro 100m. If we
run our DCF across all value drivers without assigning a negative value to future R&D
expenses, we would even end up at Euro 131.4 fair value for MorphoSys (using Novartis DCF
parameters).
R&D = value destruction?
Euro 5.8 negative value: Given the increased financial flexibility we believe MorphoSys is
likely to invest more into its own proprietary pipeline. We have assumed $16m of proprietary
R&D in 2008, $19m in 2009 and $21m in 2010-2013E. As we did not assume any positive
outcome, it seems rational to at least decrease further spending. Hence, we have not
assumed any proprietary R&D costs after 2017. Hence, we arrive at Euro 43m NPV loss for
own pipeline spending, which equals Euro 5.8 per share.
New DB price target Euro 66: We raise our price target by 21% to Euro 66 (Euro 57) as a
result of the new Novartis collaboration. The value composition is summarized in the table
below, which also includes a fair value calculation from Novartis’ perspective. Note that this
table ignores any upside potential from proprietary drug development, which could be
substantial, in our view.
Value for Novartis could be Euro 131: As described above, the MorphoSys-Novartis
collaboration could be worth Euro 39 for MorphoSys (WACC 10.55%, long-term tax rate
35.0%) and Euro 79 for Novartis (WACC 8.35%, long-term tax rate 16.5%). If we also use
these parameters for valuing other collaborations and other assets of MorphoSys, we end up
at a fair value of Euro 131 per share for MorphoSys (from a Novartis perspective). This
number does not yet include the upside from potential synergies. Hence, we believe that
Novartis could easily pay twice the existing share price and the math would still work in their
favor. xxxxxxxxxxx Und ausdrücklich: Bei den 131Euro ist noch jedes upsidepotential aus Altkooperationen oder eigener Pipeline ausgespart. |
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