London, 3 November 2011: Reuters The strike at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is now in its seventh week. Production in any meaningful sense of the word has ground to a halt, and Freeport McMoRan , the majority owner and operator, declared partial force majeure last week. Talks between management and union, which is seeking pay parity with Freeport operations in other parts of the world, are deadlocked. Barricades, roadblocks and sabotage of key infrastructure provide multiple flashpoints for a worsening of the violence, which has already claimed six lives as the stand-off inflames long-simmering separatist tensions in the province of Papua. At any other time, the unfolding drama at Grasberg would be the focal point for copper traders the world over. These, however, are far from normal times, and supply side news, even in a market bedevilled by a shortfall such as copper, has been subsumed by the greater macro fears surrounding the future of the eurozone. Moreover, there is a degree of disruption fatigue in the current copper market. Strikes have proliferated this year as unions seek a bigger slice of the profits accruing from what are still, even after the September sell-off, historically very high prices. It's not even as if Grasberg is the only mine currently being affected by strike action. A walk-out at Cerro Verde in Peru, also majority-owned by Freeport, has lasted over a month. But Grasberg happens to be the world's second-largest copper mine. Production last year was just over 600,000 tonnes of copper in concentrates, accounting for around 3.75 percent of global mine output. The length of the strike and the severity of the impact on production will affect the market. It's just a case of how hard and for how long.  PRODUCTION HIT On Tuesday Freeport issued an update on the strike's impact on production. It was as clear as the mud at the bottom of the mine's giant open pit. According to Freeport, milling operations, which is where the ore gets converted to concentrate, were running at an average rate of 120,000 tonnes per day in October, rather than the targeted 175,000 tonnes per day. That's a drop of just over 30 percent. The company had intended to produce around 2 million pounds of contained copper per day in the fourth quarter. The implied loss for October was around 19.0 million pounds, which is the equivalent of around 8,600 tonnes of contained metal. Doesn't seem too bad, does it, considering that the mine is experiencing its worst industrial action since starting production in 1990? There are three important caveats ----------- BOC - Mein MULTIBAGGER Favorit |