forecast liest sich aussichtsreich... Tuesday, October 06, 2009 12:50 PM Intel Corporation's (NASDAQ:INTC : 19.66, 0.03) is scheduled to report its third quarter financial results on October 13. In the last quarter, the company's actual earnings significantly fell short of the market's consensus forecast. However, for the September 2009 ended quarter Intel might positively surprise investors. In fact, on August 28, the company raised its guidance for the quarter. The company raised its revenue guidance from the previous $8.5 billion, plus or minus $400 million to $9.0 billion, plus or minus $200 million. The company said that its gross margin percentage for the third quarter could be in the upper half of the previous range of 53 percent, plus or minus two percentage points. In the third quarter, improvements in the CPU business are expected to contribute more than three points sequentially to gross margin through higher sales volume and lower unit costs. An additional three point increase is expected from reductions in excess capacity charges and start-up costs. However, these increases could be partially offset three points by inventory write-offs, primarily for the lead 32-nanometer products built prior to qualification for sale and one point for lower CPU average selling prices. Rise in the third quarter is also supported by the trends in the last two quarters. In the first half of 2009, inventory decreased by over $900 million. Analysts' estimates for the quarter ending September 2009 (Q3) range from a low of $0.24 to a high of $0.32, with a consensus of $0.272. For the fiscal quarter ending September 2009, the consensus EPS forecast has remained the same over the past week at $0.272 and increased over the past month from $0.267 to $0.272 (1.87%). Of the 38 analysts making quarterly forecasts, 4 raised and none lowered their forecast. In 2009, for every $1 billion or so in incremental revenue that Intel has been able to bring in, a little less than half has dropped to the bottom line (excluding a €1.06 billion fine imposed on it by the European Commission in May). So the incremental sales in Q3 should boost Intel's profits considerably. In Q1, Intel's sales were $7.1 billion, and net income was $647 million; Q2 saw sales climb to $8 billion and net income (excluding the EC fees) rose to $1 billion n. So it is reasonable to assume that sales of between $8.8 billion and $9.2 billion should see Intel bring about $1.2 billion to the bottom line, all things being equal. For the fiscal year ending December 2009, the consensus EPS forecast has remained the same over the past week at $0.648 and increased over the past month from $0.645 to $0.648 (0.47%). Of the 25 analysts making yearly forecasts, 4 raised and none lowered their forecast. |
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