http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFN1211925420100812?sp=true
Global copper output cuts signal tightening balance Thu Aug 12, 2010 5:21pm GMT Print | Single Page[-] Text [+] * One-tenth of global copper output down 6 pct in H1 2010
* Production cuts signal tightening market balance
* Copper deficit seen as early as end of 2010
By Chris Kelly
NEW YORK, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Global copper output fell sharply in the first half of this year, with one tenth of the world's mine production off more than 6 percent from year-ago levels, underscoring an underperforming industry and signaling a tighter supply/demand balance in the months ahead.
Some of the world's top copper producers, including Rio Tinto (RIO.L: Quote) (RIO.AX: Quote), Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX.N: Quote), and BHP Billiton (BHP.AX: Quote) (BLT.L: Quote), all saw their output drop in the first six months of the year.
Operational constraints, declining ore grades, and a slower response to ramp up idled capacity from the 2008's economic crisis hammered production rates.
(Graphic: link.reuters.com/mes93n)
"There is no question that the current production numbers are to some degree validating that there is an issue starting to manifest itself on the supply side," said Mark Liinamaa, vice president of market research with Morgan Stanley.
According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), world refined copper production is projected to be 18.5 million tonnes in 2010.
Deferrals and delays in projects due to the 2008 economic crisis are expected to result in a lower growth rate for mine production next year, up 2.9 percent (500,000 tonnes) to 19.1 tonnes.
"A lot of the major mines that were built ahead of the correction are starting to show some signs of age," Liinamaa said.
"There are some fundamental issues," he said.
One such issue hanging over the market now is declining rates of production at the the world's largest copper mine, Escondida, located in Chile.
BHP Billiton (BHP.AX: Quote) (BLT.L: Quote), which owns a 57.5-percent stake in the project, forecast a 5 to 10 percent production cut at the mine this year due to lower ore grades. [ID:nSGE66J0K4]
Bart Melek, Global Commodity Strategist with BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto, said the production cut could take as much as 80,000 to 100,000 tonnes of the metal out of the market.
"That brings us to a deficit probably as early as late this year," he said, adding that inventory levels in London have already began to reflect that tighter balance.
Copper stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange (LME) stand at 409,000 tonnes, down more than 26 percent since mid-February levels above 555,000 tonnes. <0#LME-STOCKS>
"It is foreshadowing that markets globally are tightening up, and will increasingly be relying on inventories from producers, consumers, and exchanges to balance this market," Melek said.
COST-CURVE
At the depths of the global economic recession, copper prices collapsed to an almost four-year low near $1.25 per lb HGc1 in the fourth quarter of 2008.
The precipitous decline forced some producers, such as Freeport, to shut in their high-end capacity as futures prices dipped below marginal costs of production, seen at that time, around the $2.50 per lb level.
"The industry shut in capacity when the price cratered, it took a while for it to get off-line, and now they are slow to bring their capacity back on line," said Wayne Atwell, managing director of New York-based investment bank Casimir Capital LP.
Freeport began to restart some idled operations earlier this year amid signs of improved demand prospects in Western world economies, emerging from 2008's economic downturn. [ID:nN21221694]
From thereon, prices have rallied sharply, to back above $3 per lb amid signs of economic improvement around the world and healthier consumption, led by top-consumer China.
"The reason why the prices are holding up so very high is that there has been only marginal increases in new copper mine development over the past five years," said Patricia Mohr, Vice President, Economics at Scotiabank Group in Toronto.
That tighter outlook should help to keep copper prices buoyant in the near-term.
"Copper production growth is going to be pretty anemic this year, so I think we will have a pretty attractive period for copper," Casimir Capital's Atwell said. (Reporting by Chris Kelly; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)
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