1. We are done with the announcement of additional shares for sale. (the 6,472,800 shares mentioned in the 424(b)(3) filed today were already in the SB-2/A filed 7/26/04)
----------The fact that we're done with these filings should be a positive thing. Maybe we investors won't be looking over our backs anymore.(At least for anymore toxic debt announcements)
2. The mm' have covered some of their short positions. (Maybe a few more shares covered tomorrow)
----------Hopefully the mm' won't be putting anymore downward pressure on the pps.
3. I think that many of those 80M investors are hanging on for product sales, wanting to get as much money as they can. Also, the price is getting too low to sell.
----------I'm not as confident on this one, especially since some of the investors got their shares for next to nothing.
4. Anticipation of announced Incidence test sales in second week of Aug. Now only 2 weeks away.
----------Investors and traders will want to get in before too long. This is the beginning of the gradual rise in profitability we've all been waiting for.
5. 10Q Aug. 12th
----------This one is going to be flat.... No new sales figures, and a lot of money spent on R&D and travel and equipment and moving to the Rockville plant. I think because investors know all this we may not be hurt too bad.
Based on the above here's what I think will happen:
The pps begins to rise on Mon or Tue of next week.
Then once investors see the low prices disappear, they will pay more for waiting, as a result of this the mm's take advantage and push the pps up through the rest of the week.
Next phase is the poop-out, most have their shares and are not buying anymore. The pps begins to drop some, those who missed out and couldn't get shares for the price they wanted will have to pay more now, this could be their only chance before CDC. As a result pps slight rise.
Slight drop after the late buyers finish.
Then quiet until Aug 12th, the pps stays level.
Right after the 10Q the price begins to go down then levels out.
Next is a long 4th quarter wait.
Toward the end of the year the anticipation of sales in Rapid and any announcement of Incidence sales will be too much for investors to hold back. The pps will rise just on anticipation.
Other affects will be: Possible and real terrorism, election, market fluctuations, AMEX listing, 80M selling etc.
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Übrigens Joelu habe ich kein riesen Problem mit meinem "mehr als Spielgeld"Einsatz, im Gegensatz zu Dir, denn es ist Gewinn.Wenn Du Gewinne investieren kannst, dann fällt es einem wesentlich leichter ,auch mal Verluste zu machen,als wenn du Gewinnen hinterher rennst.Du bist ja schon am sprinten.Paß auf das dir nicht die Puste ausgeht.Einen langen Atem sollte man schon haben.Ich bin zu oft zu früh raus gegangen (Mobilcom, Dialog S., United, Süss Mi. usw.) 