Das auf dem Analysten-Meeting abgegebene Statement, dass 2006/2007 der Turnaround bei den Gewinnen kommen soll, scheint mir nicht ganz schlüssig (siehe kursiver Kommentar unten). Offenbar kann ein positives Ergebnis - bei der wachsender Zahl ablaufender Patente - nur durch Bilanzierungs-Tricks erreicht werden: Die NYT spricht von "adjusted earnings per share - a nonstandard accounting measure that Pfizer favors".
-------------------------------------------
NEW YORK TIMES April 6, 2005 Pfizer Plans 12% Cost Cut as Sales Lag By ALEX BERENSON
Pfizer promised yesterday to cut annual costs by $4 billion, or 12 percent, by 2008 to keep profits rising even as several of its biggest-selling drugs lose patent protection.
Pfizer, the world's largest drug maker, said at a meeting with analysts and investors that its profits would fall and sales would stagnate in 2005. But the company promised strong profit growth in 2006 and 2007, saying adjusted earnings per share - a nonstandard accounting measure that Pfizer favors - would rise more than 10 percent in both years.
[KOMMENTAR: Mir ist nicht ganz klar, wo das prognostizierte Wachstum in den Jahren 2006 und 2007 herkommen soll, wenn, wie befürchtet (siehe Posting 272) bis dahin bis zu 59 % des Verkaufsvolumens (die NYT nennt unten 30 %) an Pfizer-Medikamenten generische Konkurrenz bekommen könnte. Würde der Gewinn auch nur um die Hälfte dessen einbrechen, also 30 % bzw. 15 %, könnte dies mit den in diesem Artikel angekündigten Kosteneinsparungen von 12 % NICHT aufgefangen werden. Das geht dann nur mit Bilanzierungstricks - den im Text genannten "nonstandard accounting measures". Ich würde lieber reale Gewinne sehen.]
Investors reacted positively to Pfizer's optimistic long-term profit forecast and the promised cost cuts, which were larger than some analysts had predicted. Shares of Pfizer rose 3.7 percent, or 97 cents, to $26.90, leading a rally among drug makers.
Pfizer is among the world's biggest and richest companies, with $52.52 billion in sales and $16 billion in profits last year, excluding certain one-time charges. Pfizer's stock has skidded since 2000, as investors sour on its prospects. Even at yesterday's close, the stock is down 26 percent in the last year.
By 2007, Pfizer will face low-priced generic competition for a half-dozen drugs that now account for almost 30 percent of its sales and billions of dollars in profits. Meanwhile, several drugs recently introduced by the company have sold poorly, and sales of Celebrex and Bextra, its arthritis drugs, have plunged since last fall after studies linked the drugs to heart problems.
Pfizer offered an upbeat picture of its future yesterday, promising that new drugs and cost savings would replace the profits Pfizer will lose to generic competition. The company also said it was optimistic that sales of Celebrex and Bextra would begin to revive later this year and in 2006, as it works to convince doctors and patients that the benefits of the drugs outweigh their risks.
Still, many analysts said they remained skeptical about the company's long-term prospects, especially because Pfizer's executives were notably reticent to discuss details of their cost-cutting plans, promising only that they would keep the company's team of 38,000 sales representatives mostly intact. Pfizer also said it would increase its research spending about 5 percent this year, to $8 billion.
Both in the meeting and in a news conference with reporters, Pfizer executives, including Henry A. McKinnell Jr., the chief executive, repeatedly declined to answer questions about how many employees the company plans to shed or even how many employees it will have when its revamping is complete. Pfizer has about 115,000 employees, compared with about 120,000 at the end of 2004.
Discussing the $4 billion cost-cutting projection in a note to investors, David R. Risinger, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, wrote that "at this point it appears to be somewhat of a 'phantom' number." Mr. Risinger also dismissed Pfizer's optimism about Celebrex and Bextra.
Also unimpressed was Richard T. Evans, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Company. "The cost-containment efforts are entirely rational and as expected," he said. "The arguments for a return to growth are unconvincing."
For 2005, Pfizer predicted it would have adjusted operating profits of $15 billion, or $2 a share, down from $16 billion, or $2.13 a share, in 2004. The consensus forecast for the company's 2005 earnings had been $2.13 a share, according to the Institutional Brokers' Estimate System, which tracks analysts' estimates. Several respected analysts on Wall Street had already reduced their 2005 estimates to $2 or lower, so the company's prediction yesterday did not surprise big investors.
Pfizer's definition of adjusted operating profits excludes large noncash charges related to Pfizer's takeover of Pharmacia in 2002, as well as other significant charges that Pfizer classifies as one-time events. Using standard accounting principles, Pfizer expects to earn $1.16 a share in 2005, down from $1.49 a share last year.
For 2006 and 2007, the company said sales would rise slightly and its adjusted earnings per share would grow at double-digit rates. But because Pfizer plans large stock buybacks, fewer shares will be outstanding in later years, which would allow its earnings per share to rise faster than its bottom-line profits. Thus, it could meet its target even if profits grew less than 10 percent. |