Also 32$ wären schon eine nette Strecke die man gehen könnte. Wäre für dich ja dann ein glatter Verdoppler wenn es so käme. Hier mal die etwas ausführlichere Begründung warum das Upgrade auf 32$ kam. Neben den guten Voraussetzungen für eigenen Verbesserung gibt es auch eine gewisse Übernahmephantasie (DISH, Sprint)
October 1, 2013 T-Mobile Rising: Oppenheimer Says Buy on Potential Subscriber Adds http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/10/...?mod=yahoobarrons => "...Oppenheimer & Co.’s Tim Horan today offers what he calls a “deep dive” with respect to the cellular market, raising his rating on T-Mobile USA (TMUS) shares to Outperform from “Perform,” with a$32 price target, after concluding its focus on buildout in urban markets as regards cost of extending its network. As the four major U.S. carriers — T-Mobile, AT&T (T), Sprint (S) and Verizon Communications (VZ) — all try to roll out higher-speed “long-term evolution,” or LTE, networks, at 10 megabits per second and more with “LTE Advanced,” and all have good spectrum positions, but T-Mobile has the most to gain, coming from a relatively weak position, historically, in its network coverage and capabilities:All four companies now have fairly similar levers to pull to improve operating performance. Pricing remains the greatest risk, but we expect it to remain firm. Our optimism is due to supply constraints on spectrum (the last major auction was 2008), and the broadcast spectrum auction may not take place until 2016. Further, T and VZ have substantial reasons to keep pricing relatively high and have been increasing prices through many methods over the last two years. Over the next 12 months we see TMUS as having the most improved momentum in the sector, coming off of what has been the weakest network and operating performance. We like Sprint’s position long term, but we’re wary of how much incremental CAPX Sprint will need to spend above guidance in order to meaningfully take advantage of its spectrum. T-Mobile will see subscriber adds as it expands its network, and there’s still a chance that Dish Network (DISH) may try to acquire the company, he thinks: TMUS’s integration of the PCS network appears to be going very well, and the company’s network metrics (spectrum, capital deployed, etc.) are actually fairly impressive on a per- subscriber basis. Note that TMUS had been dealing with spectrum constraints for the past several years and was unable to upgrade to 10×10 MHz LTE while continuing to operate its legacy HSPA networks. The addition of spectrum from AT&T and PCS resolved this issue and is enabling TMUS to build out LTE using contiguous spectrum. At an investor conference last week the company was extremely upbeat regarding its network upgrades and stated that it will have 24 of its top 25 markets on 10×10 by YE. TMUS is seeing speeds in the 12-18mbps range with this pairing, which compares favorably to the incumbents and significantly better vs. S. Overall TMUS covers 180 million pops with LTE and should hit 225 million by mid-next year with a majority on higher 10×10 speeds. Over time the spectrum dedicated to LTE will increase to 20×20 in most markets. As we’ve repeatedly seen for years, a fast network helps drive gross additions, particularly when combined with attractively priced plans. This can be seen on the net add front, where the company has gone from losing ~500K postpaid subscribers per quarter for the last few years to 688K in 2Q13, and we expect continued quarterly net adds in the 300- 400K range moving forward. If we are correct, then services revenue bottomed in 1Q13 and should grow in the 4%-5% range per year with 50% incremental EBITDA margins versus its 20% base margin. Churn and scale are the two largest reasons for the company’s low ROIC and margins. The virtuous cycle is now set to kick in and should enable solid margin expansion and FCF generation. Last, we think there is a decent chance that TMUS will be acquired by Dish (DISH, $45.01, NC), and that this represents one of Charlie Ergen’s last strategic options. Dish has built up an impressive spectrum portfolio, and we believe it wants to combine mobile voice/data capabilities with its satellite video offering to have a unique bundled service. We also still think there is a chance that TMUS could be acquired by Sprint, but probably not under this administration.
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