die mir anlässlich des nachfolgenden Statements von dem stimmberechtigtem Fed-Mitglied Gary Stern einfallen.
Der Fed-Chef von Minneapolis, Gary Stern, sagte am Donnerstag in London vor dem European Economic and Financial Center:
Nevertheless, said Stern, "I don't think all the surprises are necessarily over."
He also said that a stabilization in housing sales would be an important development indicating that the U.S. economy is healing.
If sales stabilize or turn up, that would be a "key sign that a meaningful adjustment is under way," Stern said.
Das bedeutet nach wie vor wie folgt:
a) Solange die faulen Kredite nicht komplett aus den Bilanzen der Banken sind, solange der Markt hier keine Transparenz hat, werden die Financials weiterhin für Überraschungen im negativen Sinne gut bleiben. Bei der Gewichtung der Financials in den Aktien-Indizes kann sich jeder selbst ausmalen, was das börsentechnisch bedeutet, vor allem, wenn man sich vor Augen führt, dass die Financials im S&P500 in 2007 für ca. 40% der Gewinne standen.
b) Ist ein Anzeichen, dass der US-Immobilienmarkt sich stabilisiert, weiterhin nicht in Sicht. (IF sales stabilize or turn up….) Die Stablisierung, ein Bottoming des US-Immo-Markts ist aber wohl eine der grundlegenden Voraussetzungen für die Erholung der US-Wirtschaft.
Desweiteren:
Zu dem Thema “Sind (US)-Aktien momentan billig“ schreibt das Wall Street Journal, wohl nicht gerade eine Doom&Gloom-Gazette, aktuell wie folgt:
From Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal (3/25/08):
The stock market's comeback lately erodes the argument that equities are cheap. As of Monday's close, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index was priced at about 16 times the past four quarters' earnings, nearly matching the market's long-term price-to-earnings ratio. The S&P looks better relative to expected earnings for 2008, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 14, below the long-term average. The trouble is that forward earnings are based on optimistic assumptions about earnings growth. They presume earnings will grow 17% in 2008, more than reversing a 6% 2007 decline and more than doubling their average growth since 1989 -- despite the fact that analysts agree earnings are likely shrinking in the first quarter. If earnings merely return their average growth rate of 8% -- unlikely, if the economy really is in recession -- the forward P/E rises to 15. If earnings fall 17.5% -- as they have, on average, during the past three years that included recessions, according to S&P data -- then the forward P/E ratio rises to 20, undermining the idea that stocks are cheap. Some market bulls suggest the recent rallies in financials and other interest-rate-sensitive sectors are a sign the market has begun to act as it typically does at the start of new economic cycles. But maybe these "early cycle" bulls are getting ahead of themselves. The market doesn't even seem to have priced in much of an earnings slowdown yet.
Also Folkz, be prepared ;-)) |
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