What the fall of Vuhledar would mean for Russia's war in Ukraine
The long-embattled town of Vuhledar, key to Ukrainian defenses in the southeastern part of Donetsk Oblast, is under threat of encirclement and is being "razed to the ground," according to reports on Sept. 24.
Located 50 kilometers south of Pokrovsk, the strategic roadway junction, Vuhledar is often called a "fortress" among the military. The town is now at the epicenter of a Russian months-long push.
The loss of Vuhledar would pose a threat to the southern flank of Pokrovsk, another city Ukraine is struggling to hold amid continuous Russian assaults.
In recent days, Russian troops appear to have dramatically stepped up the assault, and information from Russian pro-war military bloggers and open-source monitors suggests Ukrainian forces are at risk of Russian encirclement.
"Russian units have entered Vuhledar – the storming of the town has begun," the Ukrainian-born, pro-Russian military blogger Yuri Podolyaka said in a post on Telegram on Sept. 23.
In a Sept. 24 update, the crowd-sourced monitoring website DeepState said Russian forces were "simply razing it to the ground" with artillery and guided bombs. A video accompanying the post purportedly showed multiple explosions in an unidentified part of the town.
The latest map from DeepState shows Russian forces attacking the town directly as well as on both of its flanks.
Ukraine's General Staff, in its morning update on Sept. 24, said there were "eight attempts to seize our positions" in the area but did not provide any further details.
The Kyiv Independent reached out to Ukraine's military for information on the situation in Vuhledar, but it declined to respond.
"I would be surprised if the battle goes on for much longer," Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group, told the Kyiv Independent.
"I think we are seeing the end times of Vuhledar as we speak."
According to Ukrainian government statistics, Vuhledar was home to 14,000 people on the eve of Russia's full-scale invasion. By February 2024, around 100 people were left in Vuhledar, mostly pensioners living in basements. The city is now practically depopulated and destroyed.
Despite that, the loss of Vuhledar, a town that has resisted Russian occupation for years, would be a serious blow to Ukrainian morale.
"Potentially (its loss could) threaten the security of the entire southwestern portion of Donetsk Oblast not yet occupied," Federico Borsari, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told the Kyiv Independent earlier in September.
Vuhledar is located north of a key intersection connecting the O-0532 road towards Vodiane and Kostiantynivka, a small paved road toward Kurakhove, and the partly occupied T-0509 highway toward Velyka Novosilka.
"It is, therefore, a key logistic point for Ukrainian forces defending the southern flank of Kurakhove," Borsari said.
Given the Russian significant advance towards Pokrovsk from the east in recent weeks, Ukrainian forces need to avoid a similar development from the south to avoid the risk of encirclement, Borsari added.
Vuhledar is also the last fortified town before the village of Velyka Novosilka and the entire southern part of Donetsk Oblast that Ukraine controls. The occupied section of the T-0509 highway, which passes south of Vuhledar, is essential for Russian forces trying to advance westward.
Russia has long said that its goal is to occupy Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, and Vuhledar was one of the towns that had long been standing in the way of this, Dmytro Zhmaylo, co-founder and executive director of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, told the Kyiv Independent earlier this month.
"Ideological requirements, as well as information and psychological ones, often dictate military objectives for the Russians," Zhmaylo said.
Vuhledar and its surroundings are heavily urbanized and lie on higher ground, making the territory a challenge to seize.
Russia has suffered high losses in its attempt to take the town since the start of the full-scale invasion. Hundreds of troops from Russia's 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade, an elite naval infantry unit, were reportedly killed in their attempts to take the town in January and February 2023.
Almost all Russian soldiers in the 5,000-strong brigade were killed, injured, or captured, the Ukrainian military said.
As battles continued into March, the New York Times reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed at least 130 tanks and armored personnel carriers near Vuhledar. Ukrainian officials said this was the "biggest tank battle of the war so far and a stinging setback for the Russians."
In June 2024, Russian troops attempted to launch an assault on Vuhledar using not just tanks and infantry fighting vehicles but also dirt bikes, presumably to maneuver quickly on difficult terrain. Ukraine's 72nd Mechanized Brigade defended against the attack and claimed to have destroyed 16 tanks, 34 fighting vehicles, and 19 bikes.
In early September, however, Russian troops made a number of advances not far from Vuhledar.
Russian troops made gains near the settlements of Hirnyk and Ukrainsk, approaching Kurakhove from the north, and managed to occupy the village of Prechystivka, 12 kilometers (7.5 miles) southwest of Vuhledar.
Russia's Defense Ministry claimed on Sept. 10 that its forces had captured the village of Vodiane, just 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) to the northeast of Vuhledar. As Russia's advance continued in the following days, Russian pro-war military bloggers alleged that Russian troops had captured a mine just west of Vodiane.
Russian commanders appear to have learned from previous failed attempts to attack Vuhledar directly, Kastehelmi said.
Instead of direct mechanized assaults, Russian troops are now attacking from the flanks, something that is "basic military logic," Kastehelmi said.
The most serious issue is whether the Ukrainian flanks can hold. "Right now, the Russians are less than 5 kilometers away from the main supply road, so there's less than a 10-kilometer gap between the Russian spearheads," Kastehelmi added.
"It's not a huge deal if the Russians manage to occupy a few high-rise buildings, but if they are able to seriously form an encirclement from the flanks, then that's a real issue."
https://kyivindependent.com/...would-mean-for-russias-war-in-ukraine/ |
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