Habe dem Englischen vor 28 Jahren abgeschworen. :)
CORRECTED - DEALTALK-Freenet's DSL unit back on United Internet radar
Freitag, 23. Januar 2009, 17:09 Uhr
By Tyler Sitte
FRANKFURT, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Freenet (FNTG.DE: Kurs) Chief Executive Eckhard Spoerr's departure makes a sale of the German telecom's broadband unit to rival United Internet more likely, though disagreements over price could scupper any deal.
"The likelihood of United Internet buying (Freenet's) DSL business has increased due to the management change," DZ Bank analyst Joeri Sels wrote to clients when Spoerr's resignation was announced at the end of December.
Analysts said tensions between Spoerr, who left Freenet on Friday, and United Internet (UTDI.DE: Kurs) Chief Executive Ralph Dommermuth may have previously prevented the two companies from agreeing a deal for the unit, which Freenet put up for sale in March 2008.
"(The two) CEOs aren't exactly friendly with each other and from that standpoint a management change might really help," said SES Research analyst Jochen Reichert.
Buying the currently loss-making business would also give United Internet a bolt-on 1-million-strong subscriber base, handing it the number-two spot on the German market at a time when the economic crisis is expected to eat into previously high rates of internet subscriber growth.
United Internet, together with Drillisch (DRIG.DE: Kurs), tried to take over and carve up Freenet in early to mid-2008, a move Freenet thwarted with a 1.63 billion euro ($2.12 billion) takeover of telecom provider Debitel.[ID:nWEB1416]
Freenet later spun the DSL unit off and put it up for sale. United Internet showed interest but pulled out of the bidding -- which also attracted Versatel (VTWGn.DE: Kurs) and Britain's Vodafone's (VOD.L: Kurs) Arcor -- in October.
Now a deal could be back on the agenda.
"If Freenet approached us and said 'we want to talk with you again', then we would not preclude (this)," an United Internet spokesman said.
PRICE IS KEY
Analysts see disagreements over price, centred on difficulties in assessing the potential to boost sales to the DSL unit's customers, as obstacles to a transaction with either United Internet or another company.
They estimate fair value for the unit could range from 200-400 million euros, with most estimates around 250 to 300 million. This is shy of market talk of 550 million euro that was circulating as recently as mid-January.
"A company would probably be willing to pay 250-300 euros per customer, for customers who have a monthly subscription of around 35 euros (valuing the company at 250-300 million euros)," said SES Research's Reichert.
"But if we were to assume that the average contract duration for a Freenet customer was around one year, than ... under 250 euros per customer would be more appropriate," Reichert said.
"Were this an easy sale, it would have likely been concluded already," added Metzler analyst Ulrich Trabert.
But the fact the unit is losing money will likely help keep down the price and increases its chance of either being sold or simply run down.
"I think (the business) will either be sold this year or (Freenet) will just stop investing in it," said Commerzbank analyst Heike Pauls.
HIGH DEBT LEVEL
Freenet's debt of around 1.3 billion euros, equivalent to an estimated gearing of over 150 percent in 2008, is another factor that could muddy the waters.
The relatively high figure could be an incentive for Freenet to speed through a sale, though it might also be restricted from doing so.
"The DSL unit assumed some of the debt of the Debitel acquisition and it is unclear... whether there are restrictions from banks on Freenet to selling the unit below a certain price," Reichert said.
With debt of around 370 million euros, United Internet would be unlikely to face problems financing the acquisition.
"This is strong advantage as other companies are held back from going on the offensive," said an analyst who preferred not to be named.
"Growth in DSL (new customers) will probably drop by half in 2009 ... so companies will have to look at ways to grow inorganically - namely takeovers and tie-ups," he added.
(additional reporting by Nikola Rotscheroth in Duesseldorf; editing by John Stonestreet)
http://de.reuters.com/article/companyNews/...alBrandChannel=0&sp=true -----------
Dem Geld darf man nicht nachlaufen, man muss ihm entgegenkommen |
Thread abonnieren
