Top-Foren
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Gesamt | 58 | 627 |
Börse | 46 | 413 |
Talk | 2 | 112 |
Blockchain | 8 | 120 |
Hot-Stocks | 10 | 83 |
DAX | 3 | 44 |
Der USA Bären-Thread
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interessant
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witzig
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gut analysiert
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informativ
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Wer wissen möchte, ob einem die Finanzmärkte - und damit letztlich auch die Weltkonjunktur - um die Ohren fliegt, der sollte sein Augenmerk daher weniger auf den Dax oder den Dow Jones richten, sondern vielmehr auf den ABX BBB- oder den Itraxx Crossover Index.
Die Schrotthändler werden die Finanzmärkte nicht kippen. Nicht umsonst haben die großen Banken den Schrott weiter verkauft.
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Daß der Rückgang in den USA linear so weitergeht, ist unvorstellbar. Dazu läuft
die Weltwirtschaft viel zu gut. Lineare Arithmetik würde ja bedeuten, daß das
Wachstum in Deutschland umgekehrt auf über 5% wächst (aktuell 2,6%).
Und das glaubt kein Mensch.
Die Wahrheit wird in der Mitte liegen. Denn die zurückgegangenen Ölpreise sind
noch gar nicht in den Zahlen angekommen. Außerdem haben rückläufige Zahlen
auch einen Auto-Stabilisierungseffekt - über die Zahlenbasis. Ein Grund, warum schwächere Jahre häufig gute Börsenjahre waren.
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Du mußt Dir darüber im Klaren sein, daß JEDE Aktie nichts ist als ein Stück
Papier, auf dem eine Wette eingegangen wird. Die Tatsache, daß manche dieser
Papiere längerfristig (nie wirklich LANG-fristig im reinen Sinn) hoch gehandelt
werden, sollte nicht zu der falschen Annahme verführen, es handle sich um etwas
wirklich "Wertvolles". Wertpapiere haben einen temporären Marktwert, der sich
rein nach dem Belieben und dem jeweiligen Risikoprofil der Börsengemeinde ent-
wickelt - also völlig unwägbar. Das ganze Szenario basiert auf nichts als Empirie,
auf Hoffnungen, Erwartungen.
Welche Commodities, welche Werte, sind dann wirklich im reinen Sinne "wertvoll"?
Ich sage: KEINE. Es gibt sie nicht.
Was Gold -die älteste bekannte Anlageform- "wert" hat, hat es dieser Tage
dramatisch vorgeführt: es wurde verschleudert; Millionen von Anlegern arm
gemacht. Gold also ein "zeitloser Wert" mit "ewigem Glanz"? - Mitnichten.
Immobilien? - Ebenso wenig. Dazu reicht ein Blick auf die Preisentwicklung während
der letzten 10 Jahre: ein Fiasko.
Staatsanleihen? - Ebenso wenig. Staatsanleihen sind nichts anderes als Schuld-
scheine auf Rückzahlung von Geld, das der Staat gar nicht besitzt; er muß es erst
anderen stehlen. Mit Glück gelingt ihm das , sicher ist es aber nie.
Machen wir uns also nichts vor.
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Sie halten Denglisch für ein Signum von Weltläufigkeit und Bildung - ein Irrtum.
Ich habe den Kontext Deines Beitrags leider nicht gelesen und so nicht mitbe-
kommen, was Du tatsächlich gemeint hast, was ich bedaure.
Am Inhalt meines Beitrags ändert es allerdings nichts; außer, daß ich den Vorwurf,
Du machst es Dir einfach, zurücknehme.
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Zu Staatsanleihen habe ich allerdings eine andere Meinung. Natürlich können Staaten zu Grunde gehen und mit ihnen ihre Schuldscheine. Wenn allerdings praktisch alle mit AAA bewerteten Staaten zu Grunde gehen, können wir eh alles vergessen. Kosto ist reich geworden mit deutschen Vorkriegsanleihen, die er im Krieg billigst eingesammelt hatte und nach dem Krieg eingelöst hat. An der Börse hat er vorher nichts verdient. Und in diesem Fall ist wirklich viel passiert.
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Die Jongleure des billig geliehenen Geldes werden die Märkte auch weiterhin in Atem halten, denn diese Jungs ziehen bei der kleinsten Klimaveränderung an den Märkten sofort den Stecker raus. Die Bilder der jeweiligen Ökonomien zeigen sich nur unwesentlich verändert, aber die Schuldenrisiken des "Cheap Money" werden seit dem 27.Februar zunehmend eingepreist werden (müssen).
Drowning in cheap money
If there is a major stock market tumble, it won't be the fault of the overall U.S. economy. Instead, point the finger at too much risk-taking in the debt market.
The pyramid could crumble
What's more important is what Bernanke didn't say: that this time, the biggest potential danger isn't from a slowdown in the U.S. or Chinese economies. It's from the pyramid of leverage in the debt markets created by traders and speculators using cheap money from around the globe, and in particular from Japan. The sell-off of Feb. 27 demonstrated how a panicked unwinding of that pyramid of debt could send financial markets into chaos.
His answer on Feb. 28 was reassuring to the markets in the short term, but I worry that all it does is extend the complacency about risk piled on risk in the debt markets that got us into this fix in the first place.
Let me first run through the evidence from the market action on Feb. 27 that shows that the problem is in the financial markets and not in the economy.
- Just about every asset sold off. Emerging-market stocks down. Developed market stocks down. Commodities down. Some of those assets are normally good hedges against declines in other asset classes. Gold often goes up when stocks fall, for example, but not this time. The coordinated sell-off was evidence, I believe, that speculative buying had driven up the price of just about every asset class. And prices fell across all classes as traders unwound those speculative trades.
But the evidence isn't limited to the market's plunge on Feb. 27. As I wrote in my Feb. 23 column, "
Debt-market bomb could hurt us all," the use of derivatives to insure against risk actually increases the amount of risk-taking behavior, which means that when something goes wrong, it will go wrong in a big way.Kompletter Artikel einsehbar unter
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/DrowningInCheapMoney.aspxOptionen
übertrieben aber naja was solls (OEX PCR von über 3 im Anstieg auf 2,1 am Schluß).
Grundsätzlich sollte die UP- Korrektur sich dem Ende neigen und die südliche Richtung angesagt sein ab Fr./Mo.
(über 1420/30 wird schon kritisch für die Bären bzw. Short ade).
February retail sales are disappointing
08.03.07 14:09
NEW YORK (AP) - The nation's retailers had a slow start to the spring season as unseasonably cold weather in February chilled demand for lightweight apparel, resulting in disappointing sales. The slowing economy, particularly the weakening housing market, could challenge shoppers in the months ahead. As merchants reported monthly sales results early Thursday, those with disappointing results included Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Costco Wholesale Corp. and Limited Brands Inc. "Cooler weather clearly dampened spring apparel sales," said Ken Perkins, president of RetailMetrics LLC, a research company in Swampscott, Mass. "Customers were not shopping for capri pants." He noted that winter storms in the Midwest and East Coast hurt Valentine's Day sales. But Perkins also said a major concern for consumer spending in the months ahead is the defaults and delinquencies in the mortgage industry. That, coupled with the decline of mortgage equity withdrawls that give consumers extra cash, could curtail spending. According to Thomson Financial, of the 55 merchants that reported February same-store sales results so far, nine beat estimates, while 17 missed. Same-store sales are sales at stores open at least a year and are considered a barometer of a retailer's health. The muted sales reports followed a rebound in January, when the late arrival of winter weather helped clear out cold weather items like boots and coats. But that meant there was little for shoppers to buy last month. Retailers are concerned that consumers will finally turn frugal because of the housing market's continuing slump, and that last week's stock market tumble might also cause shoppers to be more conservative. There's also the lingering specter of higher gasoline prices. Gasoline prices have jumped above $3 a gallon in some parts of California and Hawaii, and may hit that level other parts of the country when the summer driving season approaches. While February is one of the least important months of a retailer's calendar, merchants do hope to get some idea of which spring fashion trends are resonating with shoppers. Wal-Mart reported a meager 0.9 percent gain in same-store sales, below the 1.5 percent estimate from Wall Street analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Costco had a 4 percent increase in same-store sales, below the 5.1 percent estimate. Limited had a 3 percent increase in same-store sales, below the 4 percent estimate. The company had warned that bad weather affected Valentine's Day sales at its Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works chains. Bebe Stores Inc. had a 2.2 percent decline in same-store sales, its first monthly decline in 46 consecutive months. Analysts were expected a 2.2 percent gain. Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. suffered a 5.7 percent decline in same-store sales, worse than the 3.7 percent analysts expected. Pier 1 Imports Inc., which continues to languish, saw same-store sales decline 8.4 percent, worse than the 4.4 percent forecast. On Wednesday, at Saks Inc., which operates Saks Fifth Avenue, same-store sales surged 24.7 percent, helped by higher sales of full-price merchandise and an end-of-season consolidation sale in certain flagship stores. Analysts expected 6.4 percent.
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D.R. Horton CEO: 2007 Is Going to 'Suck'
By JEREMY HERRON 03.07.07, 7:17 PM ET
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/03/07/ap3495962.html
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Gruß
permanent
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drastisch gesenkt wie damals in Amerika. Es werden ergo nicht so viele Leute von
kreditfinanzierten Hauskäufen inspiriert gewesen sein wie drüben, überm Teich.
Aber vielleicht kommt jemand nach dem Zusammenbruch der US-
Mortgage Lenders mal auf die schlaue Idee zu prüfen, ob die deutschen
Immobilienfirmen nicht alle ein wenig überbewertet sind.
Argumentation : Einige Standorte in Süddeutschland sind - anders wie dargestellt-
alles andere als günstig. Zudem ist Deutschland sehr dicht besiedelt, so daß prinzipiell
kontiniuierliche Nachfrage besteht. Die permanenten Meldungen von niedrigen Immobilienpreisen in einschlägigen Wirtschaftsglossen halte ich persönlich eindeutig für lancierte Push-Promotion von Immobilienfirmen.
aufgrund einer mittlerweile "durchhängenden" zinsstruktur in euroland und einer inversen in usa, könnten hier dicke erträge wegkippen. dies würde die momentan prognostizierten hohen gewinnerwartungen, welche zu den offenkundig nett anmutenden kgv`s auf 07er basis führen, schnell zu schall und rauch werden lassen...
also vorsicht ist angesagt, bei finanztiteln...
gruß
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U.S. Employers Probably Added Fewest Jobs in 2 Years Last Month
By Joe Richter
March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Job growth in the U.S. was probably the weakest in two years last month as the economy struggled to overcome weakness in housing and manufacturing, economists said before a government report today.
The projected 95,000 increase in payrolls would follow a 111,000 gain in January and is about half the average number of jobs created in 2006. The unemployment rate probably stayed at 4.6 percent in February, still close to a five-year low.
Snowstorms hampered homebuilding, aggravating a slump in construction, while an economic slowdown that carried over from last year made other employers more hesitant to add workers, economists said. Limited hiring may take some momentum out of consumer spending, which Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has called a ``mainstay'' of growth.
``The labor market is continuing to perform fairly well, but businesses will be more cautious and job growth won't be as good as last year,'' said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Pittsburgh. ``Consumers probably won't sustain the pace of spending we saw in the fourth quarter.''
The payrolls forecast is based on the median estimate of 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Labor Department will release the jobs report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Forecasts for the increase in payrolls ranged from 38,000 to 165,000.
A Commerce Department report scheduled for the same time will probably show the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $59.8 billion in January from $61.2 billion the month before, based on the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Wholesale Inventories
A separate report from the Commerce Department at 10 a.m. may show inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose 0.1 percent in January after a 0.5 percent decline the month before.
Forecasts for the unemployment rate ranged from 4.5 percent to 4.7 percent. October's 4.4 percent rate was the lowest since May 2001.
Because fewer people are entering the labor force than in years past, smaller payroll gains are needed each month to keep the unemployment rate steady.
Economists estimate workers' earnings rose 0.3 percent in February and 3.9 percent from the same time last year, the survey showed. The year-over-year increase compares with a 4 percent rise reported for the prior month.
``Wage pressures increased slightly in several districts, although pay increases generally remained moderate across the country,'' the Fed said March 7 in its regional survey known as the beige book.
Weakening Growth
A third of the Fed's 12 district banks reported some signs of weakening growth. Fed Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow said the same day that concern about high inflation still outweighs the risk of slower economic growth.
The economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter as residential construction posted its biggest decline since 1991. Growth slowed from a 4.1 percent average rate in the first half.
The pace of growth will remain subdued at 2.4 percent this quarter, according to the median estimate of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from March 1 to March 7. Growth will pick up to 3 percent by year's end, the survey showed.
A report released this week by ADP Employer Services said companies added 57,000 jobs in February, the fewest since July 2003. The ADP data are based on private payrolls and frequently don't match the Labor Department figures, which include government jobs.
Construction Employment
Some 40,000 construction jobs were probably lost in February, according to projections from JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. Weather played a part.
Planalytics Inc., a Wayne, Pennsylvania-based weather consulting firm, said a winter storm system that swept from the Midwest through the East Coast was the ``largest and most disruptive'' of the year. The South experienced thunderstorms, while widespread rainfall was reported in the Pacific Northwest.
Manufacturers probably shed 19,000 jobs last month, based on the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would bring the number of factory jobs lost during the past six months to 125,000.
Alcoa Inc., the world's largest aluminum maker, said March 1 that it will close a food packaging plant in Mt. Vernon, Kentucky, and shed 115 jobs as part of a plan to improve profit.
Still, Fed Chairman Bernanke said in congressional testimony last month that he expects the economy to improve in the second half of the year. A survey released this week by the Business Roundtable in Washington showed confidence among U.S. chief executives rose in the first quarter for the first time in a year.
Business Spending
More companies told the Business Roundtable they plan to boost spending on new plants and equipment.
Toyota Motor Corp., the world's second-largest automaker, plans to build a $1.3 billion assembly plant in Mississippi. The Toyota City, Japan-based company, which last year opened its sixth North American auto plant in San Antonio, expects to employ 2,000 people at the Mississippi facility.
The Business Roundtable survey found that the proportion of companies planning to increase hiring fell to 33 percent from 37 percent in the prior quarter.
Companies ``are going to be very cautious at this point,'' Terry McGraw, chairman of the Business Roundtable and chairman and chief executive officer of McGraw-Hill Cos., said in an interview. ``It's going to be a slow increase'' in hiring.
First-time claims for unemployment benefits during February averaged 334,000 a week, up from an average last year of 313,000, government figures show.
Bloomberg Survey
FIRM Trade Nonfarm Unemploy Avg Hrly
Balance Payroll Rate Earnings
--------------------------------------------------
Number of replies 69 80 78 59
MEDIAN -$59.8 95 4.6% 0.3%
AVERAGE -$60.0 98 4.6% 0.3%
High Forecast -$56.0 165 4.7% 0.5%
Low Forecast -$66.0 38 4.5% 0.1%
Previous -$61.2 111 4.6% 0.2%
--------------------------------------------------
4CAST Ltd. -$58.8 90 4.6% 0.3%
Action Economics -$58.7 90 4.6% 0.4%
AIG Global Invest. -$56.0 107 4.7% 0.4%
Alleti Gestielle SGR -$59.2 95 4.6% n/a
Allianz Dresdner -$60.0 90 4.7% 0.3%
Argus Research -$59.1 40 4.6% 0.3%
BMO Capital Markets -$60.9 100 4.6% 0.3%
BNP Paribas -$60.0 75 4.7% 0.2%
B of A Securities -$59.5 120 4.6% 0.3%
Banca IMI n/a 100 n/a n/a
Bancolombia SA n/a 102 n/a n/a
Banco Itau Europa n/a 120 4.7% n/a
Bantleon Bank AG n/a 70 4.6% n/a
Barclays Capital -$61.0 115 4.6% 0.3%
Bayerische Landes. -$60.0 100 4.7% 0.2%
Bear Stearns -$60.0 125 4.5% 0.3%
BOT- Mitsubishi -$58.6 80 4.7% 0.3%
Briefing.com -$59.5 100 4.7% 0.4%
Calyon -$59.6 135 4.6% 0.2%
CFC Group -$66.0 80 4.7% 0.5%
CIBC World Markets -$60.5 95 4.6% 0.2%
Citigroup -$65.0 90 4.7% 0.3%
ClearView Economics -$60.0 150 4.7% 0.3%
Commerzbank -$59.5 100 4.6% 0.3%
Countrywide SEC -$60.0 80 4.6% 0.2%
Credit Suisse -$59.5 90 4.7% 0.3%
Daiwa Securities -$63.0 135 4.6% n/a
Danske Bank n/a 120 4.6% n/a
DekaBank -$58.5 90 4.7% 0.3%
Desjardins Group -$58.8 95 4.6% 0.3%
Deutsche Bank -$60.5 75 4.7% 0.2%
Deutsche PostBank -$60.0 110 4.6% n/a
Dresdner Kleinwort -$59.0 85 4.6% 0.2%
DZ Bank -$62.2 120 4.6% 0.3%
Essen Hyp. n/a 130 n/a n/a
FIMAT-Cube n/a 90 4.6% 0.3%
FTN Financial -$61.0 50 4.6% 0.2%
First Trust Advisors -$59.8 38 4.5% 0.4%
Fortis -$58.7 130 4.6% n/a
Goldman Sachs -$59.0 50 4.6% 0.3%
H&R Block Financial -$59.0 75 4.6% 0.3%
High Frequency -$62.0 150 4.6% 0.3%
HSBC Markets -$59.0 70 4.6% 0.3%
Horizon Investments -$58.5 110 4.6% n/a
HypoVereinsbank -$59.5 130 4.6% n/a
IDEAglobal -$60.4 100 4.6% 0.3%
ING Barings -$59.3 130 4.6% 0.3%
Informa Global -$59.5 95 4.6% 0.3%
Insight Economics -$60.0 75 4.6% 0.3%
Intesa-SanPaulo -$59.2 50 4.7% n/a
J.P. Morgan Chase -$60.7 100 4.6% n/a
JPMorgan Private -$61.5 80 4.6% 0.3%
Lehman -$61.0 130 4.6% 0.3%
Lloyds TSB -$62.5 120 4.6% 0.3%
Maria Fiorini -$58.5 100 4.6% 0.3%
Merrill Lynch -$62.2 90 4.6% 0.2%
MFC Global Invest. -$61.0 70 4.6% 0.2%
Mizuho Securities -$58.0 80 4.7% 0.2%
Moody's Economy.com -$60.7 90 4.6% 0.2%
Morgan Stanley -$61.4 40 4.7% 0.4%
National Bank Fin. -$60.0 50 4.7% 0.3%
National City Bank -$59.5 163 4.6% 0.3%
Nomura -$59.4 95 4.6% 0.1%
Nord/LB -$59.5 120 4.6% n/a
PNC Bank n/a 125 4.6% 0.3%
Promotora Bursatil n/a n/a 4.7% n/a
Regions Financial n/a 90 4.6% n/a
Ried, Thunberg -$59.7 100 4.7% n/a
Scotia Capital -$61.0 80 4.6% 0.2%
Societe Generale -$61.0 130 4.6% 0.3%
Stone & McCarthy -$58.6 110 4.6% 0.4%
TD Securities n/a 120 4.6% n/a
Thomson/IFR -$61.7 165 4.7% 0.3%
TD Securities -$59.8 90 4.6% 0.2%
Tullett Prebon n/a 50 4.6% 0.2%
Unigest -$60.9 110 4.6% 0.2%
Univ. of MD -$58.8 115 4.6% n/a
Wachovia -$58.7 90 4.6% n/a
Wells Fargo -$59.5 90 4.6% 0.3%
WestLB AG -$60.0 90 4.7% n/a
Westpac Banking -$59.0 100 4.6% 0.3%
To contact the reporter on this story: Joe Richter in Washington jrichter1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 9, 2007 00:03 EST
andere banken haben nicht so große Hypo-Töchter;
aber sie haben große Portfolien mit ABS, insbesondere Goldman und Lehman
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=a8cKiHF2RQVs&refer=home
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Gruß
Permanent
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Bies Says Subprime Defaults Are `Beginning of Wave'
By Alison Vekshin and Anthony Massucci
March 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies said banks' losses from risky home loans made at a low introductory rates are just beginning.
Bies, who has been Fed's top banking policy official in her tenure at the U.S. central bank, said today banks are likely to see more missed payments and foreclosures as consumers with weak credit histories begin to face higher monthly mortgage payments.
``What's happening is the front end of this wave of teaser- rate loans that are coming into full pricing,'' Bies said today at a risk-management forum in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``So what we're seeing in this narrow segment is the beginning of the wave -- this is not the end, this is the beginning.''
Bies's comments reflect growing attention among bank regulators to the turmoil in the so-called subprime mortgage market and its impact on consumers and U.S. lenders. Many subprime borrowers face large prepayment penalties they can't afford, and they can't refinance or sell their homes, she said.
Bies said regulators are concerned about ``payment shock'' in mortgage loans made to borrowers with weak credit histories whose payments surge after a low introductory period. These subprime adjustable-rate mortgages represent 7 percent of mortgages made in the last few years, Bies said.
U.S. bank regulators have been watching rising delinquencies in the so-called subprime market since last spring, Bies said.
The Fed and four other bank regulators released proposed guidelines last week instructing banks to strengthen their underwriting standards and offer clear disclosures on loan terms to subprime borrowers.
The central bank also announced last week that the delinquency rate on banks' residential real-estate loans reached a four-year high last quarter.
More than two dozen mortgage companies have gone bankrupt, closed operations or sought buyers since the start of 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
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Ökonom Nouriel Roubini listet in seinem Blog 10 Punkte auf, welche seiner Meinung nach zu einer harten Landung der US - Wirtschaft führen werden
US and Global Financial Turmoil: Ten Observations on the Coming Financial and Economic Hard Landing
Here are below "Ten Observations on the Coming Financial and Economic Hard Landing" that summarize my views of the current global financial turmoil and the prospects for the US and global economy. This is a short summary of a presentation that I will make tomorrow at a conference, not the full remarks; so sorry for the terse structure of these remarks. The ten summary points are followed by a more detailed analysis of each one of these points (an analysis available for RGE subscribers).
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The jobs report is ``a good indication that the economy is healthy,'
Bei Bloomberg bricht der Jubel über die Arbeitsmarktzahlen aus, welche dem Publikum hier eine gesunde US – Wirtschaft suggerieren sollen. Huh !
Ich denke, da gilt es, dem doch mal einige Fakten entgegenzusetzen.
Yet, there was apparently still not enough evidence for Wall Street that the economic slowdown is even real, let alone becoming worse. The 'monthly jobs numbers' for February would be released Friday morning. And according to Wall Street, if around 100,000 new jobs were created in February, investors could be assured that the economy is just fine. Huh? There was an average of 175,000 new jobs created monthly in 2004 and 2005. Even that was well below job growth in the 1990s, and was not considered great, since it takes about 150,000 new jobs every month just to keep up with the growing population. And over the final three months of 2006, jobs creation had fallen to an average of 138,000 jobs per month.
So now if 100,000 new jobs were created in February, it would tell us the economy remains strong?
When the report was released Friday morning it showed 97,000 new jobs were created in February, close enough to 100,000. And sure enough, Wall Street spokesmen were all over the media telling investors it was a 'great' number.
So investors are to believe that the still worsening declines in factory orders, durable goods orders, real estate activity, etc. are not indicative of a worsening slide in the economy, because the smallest monthly creation of new jobs in years indicates that everything is still great?
And although the stock market was overdue for a 10% to 15% correction to alleviate its overbought condition and excessive investor euphoria, its minor bounce back this week tells Wall Street that the 5% pullback was all that was needed to create bargain stock prices.
What a relief. If only I could believe any of it.
Sy Hardin / streetsmartreport
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Lerneffekt: Die Börse nimmt zwar angeblich vorweg, aber in der End-Phase eines Bullen-Runs sind ihre antizipatorischen Fähigkeiten offenbar ähnlich beschränkt wie die Marktteilnehmer.
Zukunft: Ich fürchte, die Immo-Finanzkrise wird sich ausweiten und auf den "Prime-Markt übergreifen. Wie man das "spielt", ist jedoch die große Frage. Würde man jetzt schon wieder in Shorts einsteigen, droht ein Wiederanstieg zu alten Hochs (SP-500 = 1450; Doppeltop) und man macht zumindest Zeitwertverluste. Kauft man jedoch jetzt noch keine Shorts, könnte ein weiterer Tag kommen wie der 27. Februar, an dem es wieder ruckzuck 4 bis 5 % abwärts geht. Spontan einsteigen kann man an solchen Tagen kaum, weil die Systeme der Banken und Emmis in solchen volatilen Stunden "nur eingeschränkt handelsfähig", sprich: platt, sind.
Die Alternative ist
1. "auf Verdacht" short zu gehen, etwaige Verluste auszusitzen oder
2. den Knall von der Seitenlinie zu verfolgen (größtenteils in Cash).
Zurzeit bevorzuge ich nach dem monatelangen Short-Squeeze die 2. Variante. Nicht nur, weil extrem viele "Marktteilnehmer" Variante 1 spielen wollen, was die Wahrscheinlichkeit, damit was zu verdienen, senkt, sondern auch, weil ich in den letzten Monaten zu oft gesehen habe, wie Big Boyz und das PPT die Märkte künstlich mit Future-Käufen stützen, was frustrierend ist, weil es der Idee des freien Marktes zuwiderläuft. Und in 1,5 Jahren wollen ja die Republikaner wiedergewählt werden...
Fazit: Amerika hat die Macht und die Dollars. Das Land hängt von ausländischen Krediten ab und wird daher alles tun, diesen Gläubigern (die ein US-Banken-Chef auch schon mal "foreign suckers" - ausländische Dummbeutel - genannt hat) den Goldilocks-Spiegel vorzuhalten und Probleme bis zum letzten Moment mit Manipulationen, Schönrechnungen und Kriegen zu verstecken. Wenn's dann knallt, sind Alle "äußerst überrascht". Die Schauspieler-Riege um Schwarzenegger, Reagan und Co. übt in heimlichen Generalproben schon mal "Betroffenheit".
Wall Street fürchtet Immobilien-Pleite
Die Angst vor einem Immobiliencrash in den USA verstärkt sich: Der Hypothekenanbieter New Century steht nach Einschätzung von Analysten kurz vor der Pleite. Die Aktie rauschte erneut nach unten.
Das Unternehmen habe einen letzten Versuch gestartet, um einen Zusammenbruch zu vermeiden, schrieb JPMorgan-Analyst Andrew Wessel am Freitag. Er rechne damit, dass New Century in der nächsten oder übernächsten Woche Gläubigerschutz nach Kapitel Elf anstreben könnte. Auch andere Experten äußerten sich ähnlich. Die Aktien brachen erneut um knapp 18 Prozent ein. Seit Jahresbeginn haben die Papiere damit ungefähr 90 Prozent an Wert verloren.
New Century hatte am Donnerstag die Ausgabe neuer Kredite gestoppt und sich frisches Geld gesichert. Mit der Situation vertraute Personen gaben an, die US-Bank Morgan Stanley habe die Summe von mehreren hundert Milo. $ zur Verfügung gestellt. Das Unternehmen war zunächst nicht für eine Stellungnahme zu erreichen.
Vor etwa einer Woche setzte der Kurssturz ein, als New Century vor etwa einer Woche strafrechtliche Ermittlungen bekannt gegeben hatte. Die Immobilienfirma räumte zudem ein, sein Überleben könne von der Unterstützung der eigenen Gläubiger abhängen. Die Probleme des US-Hypothekenmarktes haben auch europäische Banken erreicht. Die Schweizer Großbank UBS hat einem Sprecher zufolge einen Kredit an das Unternehmen ausgegeben, auch Barclays soll zu den Gläubigern gehören.
New Century gehört zu den größten Unternehmen auf dem Markt für zweitklassige Hypothekendarlehen ("subprime mortgages"). Das sind Kredite, die an Kreditnehmer mit schlechter Bonität ausgegeben werden. Während des Booms auf dem US-Häusermarkt haben mit derartigen Krediten viele Häuserkäufer ihre Eigenheime finanziert, einige gaben das Geld auch für den Konsum aus. Mit dem Ende der Preissteigerungen für Wohnimmobilien können nun einige Kreditnehmer ihre Hypotheken nicht mehr bedienen, was auch die Gläubiger in Mitleidenschaft zieht. Im vergangenen Jahr sind mehr als 20 Unternehmen aus dem Markt ausgestiegen - manche freiwillig, einige nach einer Insolvenz.
FTD