Die zur Zeit relevante Marke wäre 65$. Da liegt die Obergrenze des Abwärtskanals seit etwa April.
Ziel ist für mich KGV 2021 von etwa 12, das wären um die 160$. EPS 2021 sehe ich >12$. EPS 2022 wird wahrscheinlich höher ausfallen als 2021.
User Chen in den Yahoo conversations
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DQ/community?p=DQ
liefert lesenswerte Infos. Seine Zusammenfassung zum Q2 CC in China (separat vom US-CC abgehalten):
DQ China earning call
Source: xueqiu/wechat public channel Shenzhen wealth club
Capacity: 4B estimated to start production on Oct., reaching full capacity before end of next March. Next year real output would be around 12~13 MT. 4B alone brings about 4~5 MT. Planning another 20MT line in phase. Estimated full capacity 27 MT by 2024.
Cost: total 41.47 RMB/KG = 35.6 cash + 5.87 depreciation. Lower than last year due to scale.
Price: 200~205 RMB/KG July-August.
We have spend 0.12 B RMB on research. Will pay down all debt at end of September. Current market share stands at 18%. Hope to maintain that.
We expect cost will continue to be lowered as 4B online due to scale. Current energy cost is 62.89 KWH/KG, expect lower to 55-58 KWH/KG next year.
Impact of US black list:
We cannot export or import from US, but we do not need to. Second, US requires module exporter to show material proving they are not using Hoshine silicon. 30~40% of our product using Hoshine and 60~70% are using silicon from other company. Wafer makers also import from OCI, Wacker, so I think this ban has essentially no impact to us. Longer term, we think this policy is not practical, only making noises for the downstream companies. If US does not import modules from China or Chinese company, it will take 3~4 years for them to build their own. And also they do not have the technology to make solar panels of same efficiency as us. China now has developed good solar technology. They are harming themselves.
Looking to find another place for new 10 MT production line. Have to consider several factors: distance to customers, electricity cost, land usage. Energy usage quota is a big one in China now. Have to apply to get approval.
New competitors:
In the past 4 years of the turn from poly to mono silicon wafer, mono continuous crystallization and diamond line cutting was monopolized by a certain company (Chen: Longji). We have very little profit. And the silicon cost of mono is half of poly wafer. Therefore there is no demand increase for 4 years. Therefore, all foreign competitors have been outcompeted by us. And domestically there is a lot of M&A. Now TongWei, TEBA, us, New Hope, Xiexin are top players. We have 99% mono grade poly, which is a step up from other players can produce only 95% mono grade. As the industry turn from P-sili to N-sili, poor quality poly will disqualify. Some players will be shut out, and a challenge to new players. It is not simply buy some equipment and start producing, and there is patents. Each company has our own production tricks. We are not afraid of future competition. We have the largest production base in the world, it helps to have the scale.
We can make 30~40% of our output to N-sili. Now it is not a big market, but we are ready while others are still trying. In the future we expect N-sili will be more dominant and we can convert to 80% output to N-sili. It will increase a little cost (1.5~2 RMB/KG) but also commands higher prices (2~3 RMB/KG).
Semiconductor silicon
We have not yet started semi-sili production. We have a very different work path compared to China existing semi grade poly producers. They try to make their way up from the lowest quality poly. We will do the purest semi grade first. We do not make capacity estimation now but we expect to first replace foreign semi grade and then expand. The market is huge (the world knows it, yes). Semi grade can sell at 4~5 times of solar grade poly, the market is very favorable. (Chen: China would very much like to replace its poly input stock from foreign countries as long as it qualifies).
Future of DQ US:
It is possible to do a privatization, it is also possible to continuous pay dividend and buyback (Chen: I think they will pay DQ US dividend and DQ US will do buyback, currently this makes the best financial sense). We want to reward US stakeholders. We will be responsible for all our shareholders. We hope to maximize their interests.
Will you appeal to Dept of Commerce of US?
We are researching, in proper time we want to get out from the black list.
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