Internet Capital - Erwarte Kursverdreifachung in

2005.

Die beiden Internet-Holdings CMGI und Internet Capital, ehemalige Darlinge der Anlegergemeinde, haben sich gegenüber ihren Jahrestiefstständen verdoppelt. Dass sie damit erst ein Fünfhunderstel ihrer ehemaligen Höchstkurse, die sie logischerweise nie wieder erreichen werden, erreicht haben, steht auf einem anderen Blatt. Fakt ist aber auch, dass die beiden Unternehmen heute unter Berücksichtigung ihrer Kassenbestände weitgehend schuldenfrei sind, bei CMGI sogar eine nicht unerhebliche positive Nettoposittion vorliegt. Wenn sie auch nur ein Hunderstel der ehemaligen Marktkapitalisierung erreichen können, was sehr schwer fallen dürfte, wäre das immerhin gegenüber momentan eine Verfünffachung des Kapitaleinsatzes. Zumindest bei Internet Capital halte ich auf Jahressicht aber immerhin ein Verdreifachung der momentanen Markkapitaliserung von ca. 350 Milliarden in den Milliardenbereich für möglich, ein Verdoppelung für sehr wahrscheinlich. Die Wüste lebt also, um einen Begriff von Walt Disney aufzugreifen.

Ein klassisches E-Commerce-Unternehmen aus dem High-Tech-Bereich ist allerdings nur Internet Capital geblieben, das seine aussichtsreichen Beteiligungen (Linkshare, Blackboard, Starcite,GoIndustry, ICGCommerce, Marketron, Freeborders, Arbinet usw.) weiter in Richtung Börsenreife geführt hat, während CMGI im wesentlichen alles verscherbelt hat und sich mit den Erlösen in soliden, aber weniger aussichtsreichen Sparten engagiert hat.

Die Kursanstiege insbesondere im letzten Monat sind wohl darauf zurückzuführen, dass hier - zumindest bei Internet Capital berechtigtetweise (CMGI ist meines Erachtens bereits jetzt wegen fehlenden Fantansie fair bewertet) - enormes Turn-Around-Potenzial gesehen wird. Bereits zum 30.9. hatten die Institutionals bei Internet Capital ihrer Bestände von 2% zum Tiefstand im ersten Quartal auf über 33% hochgefahren. Es ist nicht auszuschließen, dass wir heute schon in der Nähe von 50% liegen. Größter Einzelaktionär ist bei Internet Capital mit 11,5 Barclays, die immerhin gerade als erfolgreichste Bank in 2004 ausgezeichnet wurden.    

Ein Vergleich der beiden bei CMGI und Internet Capital zeigt, dass die bei CMGI sehr viel hektischer verlief. Das deutet meines Erachtens darauf hin, dass bei CMGI sehr viel mehr Zocker am Werk sind, während der Anstieg bei Internet Capital von den Instituionals getrieben wird. Ein Zocker ist daher wohl mit CMGI besser bedient, ein Anleger meines Erachtens aber mit Internet Capital, da hier die langfristigen Vervielfachungschancen größer sind.

Auch wenn ich kein großer Anhänger der Technischen Analyses bin, kannst man sehr schön erkennen, dass es besser wie bei Internet Capital schon fast nicht mehr geht:

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
30-Dec-04 9.11 9.25 9.05 9.11 372,300 9.11
29-Dec-04 8.94 9.25 8.75 9.16 574,700 9.16
28-Dec-04 8.88 9.02 8.65 9.02 313,300 9.02
27-Dec-04 8.79 9.10 8.70 8.74 439,100 8.74
23-Dec-04 8.20 8.90 8.16 8.90 830,400 8.90
22-Dec-04 8.41 8.49 8.20 8.20 792,300 8.20
21-Dec-04 8.19 8.60 8.16 8.39 983,500 8.39
20-Dec-04 8.81 9.00 8.35 8.44 963,200 8.44
17-Dec-04 9.23 9.37 8.85 8.90 1,117,100 8.90
16-Dec-04 9.37 9.48 9.15 9.23 900,100 9.23
15-Dec-04 9.56 9.68 9.16 9.30 1,527,700 9.30
14-Dec-04 8.92 9.50 8.90 9.50 2,010,600 9.50
13-Dec-04 9.00 9.35 8.90 9.03 1,988,100 9.03
10-Dec-04 8.46 9.02 8.29 9.02 3,053,200 9.02
9-Dec-04 8.02 8.40 8.00 8.40 763,900 8.40
8-Dec-04 8.01 8.43 7.92 8.15 1,172,900 8.15
7-Dec-04 8.12 8.74 7.85 7.91 2,859,400 7.91
6-Dec-04 7.50 8.30 7.41 8.03 1,914,700 8.03
3-Dec-04 7.02 7.65 7.02 7.63 1,314,900 7.63
2-Dec-04 6.95 7.28 6.95 7.07 389,700 7.07
1-Dec-04 6.80 7.35 6.80 6.97 948,700 6.97
30-Nov-04 6.91 7.00 6.75 6.87 262,300 6.87
29-Nov-04 6.95 7.01 6.80 6.98 376,200 6.98
26-Nov-04 6.87 6.97 6.74 6.97 160,000 6.97
24-Nov-04 6.73 6.95 6.72 6.86 271,700 6.86
23-Nov-04 6.50 6.79 6.39 6.73 410,300 6.73
22-Nov-04 6.37 6.58 6.37 6.49 305,600 6.49
19-Nov-04 6.61 6.66 6.46 6.46 254,900 6.46
18-Nov-04 6.71 6.80 6.55 6.65 229,100 6.65
17-Nov-04 6.82 7.02 6.74 6.81 262,000 6.81
16-Nov-04 6.76 7.09 6.76 6.90 200,000 6.90
15-Nov-04 6.82 7.05 6.82 7.05 254,200 7.05
12-Nov-04 6.95 6.95 6.79 6.93 198,200 6.93
11-Nov-04 6.49 7.04 6.49 6.92 477,000 6.92
10-Nov-04 6.59 6.77 6.50 6.54 344,600 6.54
9-Nov-04 6.50 6.80 6.35 6.69 484,600 6.69
8-Nov-04 6.56 6.82 6.46 6.57 294,300 6.57
5-Nov-04 6.63 6.74 6.53 6.68 310,900 6.68
4-Nov-04 6.70 6.89 6.55 6.73 418,300 6.73
3-Nov-04 7.03 7.15 6.77 6.98 415,000 6.98
2-Nov-04 7.02 7.03 6.90 6.94 276,900 6.94
1-Nov-04 6.85 7.02 6.72 6.99 317,800 6.99
29-Oct-04 6.84 7.03 6.65 6.86 369,600 6.86
28-Oct-04 6.91 7.18 6.80 6.87 488,200 6.87
27-Oct-04 6.41 6.94 6.41 6.88 636,700 6.88
26-Oct-04 6.41 6.59 6.35 6.53 156,400 6.53
25-Oct-04 6.35 6.57 6.35 6.53 193,800 6.53
22-Oct-04 6.50 6.67 6.41 6.49 430,700 6.49
21-Oct-04 6.20 6.53 6.07 6.52 535,500 6.52
20-Oct-04 6.00 6.20 5.95 6.10 175,800 6.10
19-Oct-04 6.10 6.38 6.02 6.08 225,000 6.08
18-Oct-04 6.00 6.20 5.95 6.17 208,400 6.17
15-Oct-04 6.02 6.10 5.90 6.08 221,300 6.08
14-Oct-04 6.07 6.15 6.02 6.08 139,700 6.08
13-Oct-04 6.20 6.29 6.10 6.12 282,600 6.12
12-Oct-04 6.39 6.44 6.09 6.12 350,100 6.12
11-Oct-04 6.25 6.44 6.20 6.39 125,200 6.39
8-Oct-04 6.40 6.60 6.35 6.41 202,700 6.41
7-Oct-04 6.52 6.60 6.45 6.55 185,300 6.55
6-Oct-04 6.52 6.67 6.32 6.66 294,000 6.66
5-Oct-04 6.54 6.66 6.49 6.55 200,400 6.55
4-Oct-04 6.64 6.79 6.50 6.62 496,000 6.62
1-Oct-04 6.48 6.70 6.30 6.52 519,500 6.52
30-Sep-04 5.87 6.49 5.75 6.46 784,500 6.46
29-Sep-04 5.70 5.90 5.62 5.88 281,400 5.88
28-Sep-04 5.70 5.72 5.49 5.72 311,800 5.72
* Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.

Der Kurs geht wie an der Schnur gezogen nach oben. Bereits zum 30.9., also gleich zu Beginn der vorstehenden Übersicht, waren bereits über 33% der Aktien im Besitz von Institutionals. Diese Zahl ist umso bemerkenswerter, als es im Frühjahr 2004 gerade mal erst 2% waren. Größter Anteilseigner ist mit 11,5% Barclays, die gerade zur erfolgreichsten Bank des Jahres 2004 gekürt wurden. Es gibt keinen Grund, dass sich die vorgezeichnete Entwicklung nicht fortsetzt, aber viele Gründe, dass es gleich zu Anfang des Jahres zu einem Sprung nach oben kommen könnte - inbesondere ein von mir erwarteter Kurssprung bei der Internet Capital-Beteiligung Blackboard, dem weltweiten Marktführer bei E-Learning-Software für den Hochschulbereich.

Im Gegensatz zu CMGI hat Internet Capital auch reichlich Fantasie. Denn könnt Ihr mir eine Beteiligung von CMGI anführen, die z.B. einen solchen Bericht wie Starcite hinlegen kann, wo Internet Capital inzwischen 37% hält:

StarCite Reports Q3 2004 Results

       · Meetings Marketplace Grows 50.7%

       · Online Registration Up 21%

PHILADELPHIA – Nov. 3, 2004 - StarCite, Inc., leading provider of innovative Web-based technologies and services for the $300 billion global meetings and events industry, today announced that it provided hotels with nearly $328 million in meeting RFP opportunities in the third quarter of 2004. Commerce flowing through the StarCite Online Marketplace rose 50.7 percent compared to the same period in 2003. At the current pace, the company expects its growing user base to deliver $1.3 billion in revenue opportunities to hotels by year-end.
“The traditionally slower summer season is reflected in our Q3 figures. But we are encouraged by dramatic surges in registrations and RFPs that set new daily or weekly records during September,” said John Pino, founder and CEO of StarCite, Inc.
As the world’s largest online marketplace for meetings and events, StarCite delivered 7,676 unique RFPs in the third quarter, 41 percent more than the same quarter last year. These RFPs provided 1.2 million room night leads to hotels with an average of 157 room nights per unique RFP.
In the first nine months of 2004, StarCite delivered 23,023 unique RFPs and more than $927 million in revenue opportunities to hotels. Each RFP – defined as “unique” - is typically sent to multiple properties or chains for rate and availability and then defined as “gross” RFPs. The number of gross RFPs sent through the StarCite Online Marketplace rose 41 percent from the third quarter 2003 to 61,764.
On a daily basis, StarCite provides $5.2 million worth of lead opportunities to hotels in its database. These figures exclude private-label sites, which StarCite supplies to Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Fairmont Hotels & Resorts, Omni Hotels and a number of individual hotels.
Online Registrations Grow 21%
StarCite processed over 250,000 online registration transactions in the third quarter of 2004, 21 percent more than the same period in 2003. With two attendee management applications – RegWeb® and ARM™– StarCite is the largest provider of attendee management transactions, processing more than 1 million annually. In September, StarCite reported its second highest transaction month in history.
During the quarter, StarCite signed several new contracts that reflect growing interest in attendee management and integration technology by suppliers. Two hotel chains, Hyatt and Carlson, signed agreements to license StarCite’s RegWeb® Attendee Management application. On the integration front, StarCite signed an agreement with MGM Mirage to integrate group leads through the hotel and gaming company’s deployment of Daylight Software. A provider of advanced sales and catering solutions, Daylight and StarCite announced the industry’s first two-way exchange of data earlier this year. Two other chains also have signed up for the integration.
In the quarter, StarCite also made significant strides on its international growth strategy, deploying a new RapidRFP™ for destination management companies; launching a new destination marketing campaign for Guatemala; and implementing new technology for both the Hong Kong and Switzerland tourism boards.
About StarCite, Inc.
StarCite, Inc. provides the most comprehensive suite of applications and services to the $300 billion meeting and events industry. StarCite helps drive efficiencies and cost savings to both corporate buyers and suppliers. More than 400 corporate, association and third-party meeting buyers rely on StarCite's Enterprise Meeting Solutions for workflow, procurement, supply chain management, spend analysis and attendee management. Thousands of industry suppliers rely on the StarCite Online Marketplace, Supplier Marketing Programs and Enabling Technologies to increase meeting revenues. StarCite's International division represents destination management companies and other premier international travel suppliers using both technology and traditional means. StarCite is based in Philadelphia. Investors in StarCite include Internet Capital Group (NASDAQ: ICGE); Maritz Travel Company; Seaport Capital; Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc.; and TL Ventures. For more information about StarCite, or its technologies and services, please visit www.StarCite.com.



Und wenn man sich dann überlegt, dass momentan für ein allerdings wesentlich größeres Buchungssystem in einem anderen Bereich 4,9 Milliarden Euro im Gespräch sind, kommt man da doch ins Grübeln:

Aufregung um Amadeus-Übernahme Zeitung: 4,9 Milliarden Euro für Reisebuchungsspezialisten - Großaktionäre dementieren
 

,eine wenn auch nur prozentmäßige nur kleinere Internet Capital-Beteiligung (12%), denn diese Aktie ist fundamental extrem unterbewertet, wie man an den nachstehenden Daten sehen kann.

Total Revenue 29,776 26,355 25,219
Cost of Revenue 9,191 8,030 7,613

Gross Profit 20,585 18,325 17,606

Operating Expenses
Research Development 3,537 3,636 3,254
Selling General and Administrative 13,075 12,478 12,276
Non Recurring - - -
Others 879 879 880

Total Operating Expenses - - -


Operating Income or Loss 3,094 1,332 1,196

Wie Ihr den oben stehenden Ausführungen entnehmen könnt, hat sich die Fahrt bei Blackboard zuletzt wieder beschleunigt. Ich will aber nicht die Steigerungsraten dieses guten dritten Quartals heranziehen, sondern die durchschnittlichere Steigerungsrate aus allen Daten verwenden. Bei Umsatz hatten wir einen durchschnittlichen Anstieg 2,5 Millionen und beim Gewinn von 0,95 Millionen.

Im folgenden will ich das einmal hochrechnen, wobei die tatsächliche Entwicklung noch unterzeichnet wird, da ich nur addiere und den "Zinseszinseffekt", der durch die jeweils größere Basis entsteht, nicht berücksichtige:

1. Zahle = Quartal/ 2. Zahl = Erlöse/ 3. Zahl = Gewinn

3-04/29,8 Millionen/3,1 Millionen

4-04/32,3 Millionen/4,05 Millionen

1-05/35,8 Millionen/5 Millionen

2-05/38,3 Millionen/5,95 Millionen

3-05/40,8 Millionen/6,9 Millionen

4-05/43,3 Millionen/7,85 Millionen

Würde man die Zahlen für 2005 addieren, käme man beim Umsatz auf einen Wert von 158,2 Millionen und beim Gewinn von 25,7 Millionen. Ich lag da mit meinen Schätzungen von 135 Millionen Umsatz und 25 Millionen Gewinn eigentlich ganz gut.

Diese Zahlen mit einem KGV von 15 und einer Gewinnsteigerung von 150% sind derart sensationell gut, dass auch massives Shorten einen Kursanstieg nicht verhindern kann, ja erst recht eine wahre Kursexplosion erhoffen/befürchten (je nach Standpunkt) lässt. Allerdings möchte ich mich in einem Punkt korrigieren, der extreme Schuss nach oben wird erst in den ersten Januartagen kommen, nicht - wie ich bisher vermutet habe - schon vor Sylvester. Denn die Fonds, für die diese Aktie durch ihre extreme Stabilität und die stetige Aufwärtsentwicklung geradezu wie geschaffen ist, werden vermutlich erst im neuen Jahr im großen Stil einkaufen. Die Aktie notiert momentan "nur" einem Dollar über dem Emissionskurs, sodass man den Besitz zum 31.12. nicht besonders zur Schau stellen muss. In den ersten Tagen des neuen Jahres wird die Aktie dann zu einen KaufMUSS.

Die von mir erwartete Kursverdoppelung von Blackboard in ersten Quartal 2005 müsste rechnerisch zu einem Kursanstieg von Internet Capital von ca. einem Dollar führen. Es werden aber mehr werden, da das auf die Wertschätzung der nicht börsennotierten Private Helds abstrahlt.

Soll man nun Blackboard oder Internet Capital kaufen? Ich meine, dass beide einen Kauf wert sind.


 
Erfolgreicher IPO 2004 war eine der Auszeichnungen für Blackboard - bis eine gigantische Shortsellernummer gegen fundamental extreme gute Zahlen einsetzte - obwohl wir immer noch 7% über dem IPO-Preis liegen. Was wir bei Internet Capital bei 4 Dollar erlebten, erleben wir jetzt auch hier. Ich bin mir ziemlich sicher, dass wir ähnliches erleben wie bei Internet Capital, die auch heute mehr als doppelt so hoch stehen wie damals bei 4 Dollar.

Damit Ihr Euch ein Bild machen könnte, habe ich Euch wichtige Daten "aus dem Leben" des heutigen Highflyers einmal kopiert:


12/1/2004 7:03:00 AM

Blackboard Used By More than 70% of Schools on the 'Forbes.com Most Connected Campuses' List


11/29/2004 7:01:00 AM

Blackboard to Participate in the e-Agenda International Summit on e-Learning, e-Training and e-Knowledge


11/16/2004 7:02:00 AM

Blackboard Communities of Practice Forum Live Online


11/11/2004 7:02:00 AM

Blackboard Expands BbOne(SM) Reach with a Dozen New Universities


11/9/2004 4:21:00 PM

Blackboard Inc. Announces Third Quarter Financial Results


11/8/2004 10:29:00 AM

Blackboard and North Carolina Community College System Offer Students and Faculty New e-Learning Options


10/27/2004 6:02:00 PM

City University of Hong Kong Moves to Blackboard


10/26/2004 4:08:00 PM

Blackboard Inc. Schedules Third Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call


10/22/2004 7:11:00 AM

Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education (PASSHE) Expands Existing Blackboard System for Statewide e-learning Platform


10/21/2004 7:02:00 AM

Blackboard Integrates with Macromedia Contribute 3 to Enhance Content Management Capabilities


10/20/2004 7:04:00 AM

Blackboard Reaches Out to Teachers Across the Country with New Online Course Contest and Grant Program


10/20/2004 7:03:00 AM

Blackboard Learning System For Microsoft .NET Framework Unveiled


10/19/2004 7:04:00 AM

U.S.News & World Report's Top Ranked Colleges and Universities Use Blackboard


10/18/2004 7:04:00 AM

Blackboard and MiCTA/ATAlliance Reach Agreement for e-Learning Products


9/21/2004 7:02:00 AM

Blackboard Content System Wins Add to UK Success and Expansion


9/20/2004 7:03:00 AM

Blackboard to be Added to the Russell 2000(R) Index


9/16/2004 11:48:00 AM

Blackboard to Present at Three Upcoming Investment Banking Conferences


9/16/2004 7:01:00 AM

One of Germany's Largest Premier Universities Selects Blackboard for e-Learning Strategy


9/13/2004 7:02:00 AM

University of London Consortium Adopts Blackboard Academic Suite


9/7/2004 7:02:00 AM

Blackboard Partners with blendedschools.net to Bring eLearning to 80 Rural School Districts


9/2/2004 7:02:00 AM

Colby-Sawyer College Selects Blackboard for Transaction Card Program


9/1/2004 7:02:00 AM

Blackboard and MERLOT Broaden Learning Network


8/25/2004

Blackboard Wins Dallas Independent Schools Account


8/23/2004 7:01:00 AM

Blackboard Content System Release 2.0 Available Now


8/18/2004 7:01:00 AM

Blackboard Wins University of Melbourne e-Learning Bid


8/17/2004 10:35:00 AM

Blackboard Launches Enterprise Learning Object Repository


8/17/2004 6:31:00 AM

Blackboard Achieves Three Milestones: More than 600 Blackboard Learning System Licenses More than 1,400 Blackboard Learning System-Basic Edition licenses More than 12 Million Active Users


8/16/2004 7:03:00 AM

Blackboard Releases Powerful New Functionality in Application Pack Two


8/10/2004 7:02:00 AM

Universidade de Aveiro Selects Blackboard


8/9/2004 7:03:00 AM

Arapahoe Community College Expanding Educational Reach and Access with Blackboard


8/5/2004 7:02:00 AM

Blackboard to Build Comprehensive Transaction System at UT Tyler


8/4/2004 5:02:00 PM

Leading Schools, Colleges and Universities Purchase Blackboard Content System(TM)


8/4/2004 4:07:00 PM

Blackboard Inc. Announces Record Second Quarter Financial Results


7/27/2004 3:00:00 AM

University of Cambridge Adopts the Blackboard Academic Suite


7/22/2004 1:11:00 PM

Academic and Commercial Developers to Gather at Second Annual Blackboard Developers Conference


7/22/2004 10:43:00 AM

Southern Denmark University Adopts the Blackboard Learning System and Blackboard Content System


7/20/2004 10:38:00 AM

Blackboard Announces Building Blocks Partnership With McGann Software


7/12/2004 4:01:00 PM

Blackboard Inc. Schedules Second Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call


7/1/2004 8:02:00 AM

Turnitin(R) to Integrate With Blackboard Solutions


6/18/2004 6:02:00 AM

Blackboard Inc. Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering of Common Stock


5/26/2004

Blackboard Launches New Software Release Strategy for Education Industry


5/12/2004

Blackboard and Giunti Interactive Labs announce Strategic Technical Alliance


5/11/2004

Blackboard to Power Online Community For 25th National Educational Computing Conference (NECC)


4/28/2004

Blackboard Appoints Frank R. Gatti to Board of Directors


4/6/2004

Blackboard Inc. and Open Universiteit Nederland Announce Strategic Alliance


3/9/2004

Intermedia Kiosks, Inc. joins Blackboard’s Building Blocks Program


3/9/2004

Blackboard Inc., Partners With Leading Academic Publishers To Develop Integrated e-Learning Solutions


3/9/2004

Blackboard Announces General Availability of the Blackboard Content System™


3/5/2004

Blackboard Inc. Files Registration Statement for Initial Public Offering


2/16/2004

Blackboard Passes Latest ADL/SCORM Certification Tests with Content Player Building Block


2/12/2004

Blackboard Releases Building Block APIs Built on the Microsoft .NET Framework


2/3/2004

Blackboard Inc. Named a Finalist in Three SIIA Codie Award Categories







Ein Bericht einmal ausführlicher, um die Dimensionen zu erahnen:

U.S.News & World Report's Top Ranked Colleges and Universities Use Blackboard

-
Three-Fourths of U.S.News & World Report's Top-Ranked National Universities Use Blackboard Software

WASHINGTON, Oct. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Blackboard Inc. (Nasdaq: BBBB) announces that more than 150 of the 239 schools included in the 2005 U.S.News & World Report ranking of top tier national universities and liberal arts colleges rely on Blackboard(R) software to create a networked learning environment. In the U.S.News & World Report's America's Best Colleges 2005's Top National Universities, nearly 75% of the 129 universities listed use the Blackboard Academic Suite(TM), the Blackboard Commerce Suite(TM), or both. Top-five ranked national universities, including Princeton University and Duke University, are among the 96 U.S.News & World Report's Top National Universities using Blackboard systems.

In the U.S.News & World Report's ranking of Top Liberal Arts Colleges, 60 of the top 110 are efficiently managing online learning or student ID card transactions using Blackboard(R) systems. The 60 Blackboard clients on this list represents 55% of the schools in the Liberal Arts Colleges category and many of the remaining ranked colleges do not use any networked learning solutions. Additionally, the top three schools in this category -- Williams College, Amherst College and Swarthmore College -- are all active Blackboard clients.

"We have been using the Blackboard Learning System for the past five years, and faculty and students here have come to depend on it," said Amy Campbell, Senior Academic Technology Consultant at the Center for Instructional Technology at Duke University. "A growing proportion of classes at Duke use Blackboard to support teaching and learning, and students and faculty report a high level of satisfaction with Blackboard functionality and ease of use."

"I would like to congratulate our clients on their positions of leadership in the U.S. higher education community," said Matthew Pittinsky, Chairman of Blackboard. "It is exciting to see the incredible work of so many of our clients recognized."

About Blackboard Inc.

Blackboard is a leading provider of enterprise software and services to the education industry. The Company's product line consists of five software applications bundled in two suites, the Blackboard Academic Suite(TM) and the Blackboard Commerce Suite(TM). Blackboard's clients include colleges, universities, schools and other education providers, as well as textbook publishers and student-focused merchants that serve education providers and their students. Blackboard is headquartered in Washington, D.C., with offices and staff in North America, Europe and Asia.



 

BBBB is a BUY
by: uncletb (54/M)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy  01/03/05 01:42 pm
Msg: 227631 of 227680

Lockup expirations have come and gone and the insiders have not sold a single share. Down trenline is set up to be broken within the week if not sooner. It is a strong buy in my opinion. Check it out now!


 

Re: BBBB is a BUY
by: myfriendlyadvice
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy  01/03/05 02:13 pm
Msg: 227642 of 227684

Insiders aren't bailing because BBBB's business model is as solid as it gets (software companies with 80% recurring revenues are a rarity).

I was never a buyer because while this means the downside is limited the upside is also too.

With BBBB what you see is what you get.

I agree that money can be made in the next few months playing between 14 and 20 though.



Seine Meinung teile ich allerdings nur sehr bedingt, denn ich sehe bei einem Wert der in 2005 ein KGV von 15 und Gewinnwachstum von 100% hat höhere Kurschancen als die 33%, die der Ami-Oster mit seinem Kursziel von 20 Dollar offeriert.  

 

Re: BBBB is a BUY
by: oneslicktoad  01/03/05 02:35 pm
Msg: 227660 of 227684

Absolutely! Love the current price. Looking to pick up some shares, just under $15.


 

Aufschlag.

Nachbörsliches von Internet Capital. Oder ein Schelm, der Böses dabei denkt. Oder anders formuliert: Wollt Ihr wirklich den Institutionals die Kursvervielfachung allein überlassen, nur weil die Euch während des normalen Handels mit ein paar Leerverkäufen Angst machen. Wahrscheinlich haben die mehr Angst als Ihr, denn Ihr wisst doch, dass die mit 1,5 Millionen Aktien in der Scheisse hängen, die sie leer verkauft haben und noch eindecken müssen. Die 50.000 von heute nach Börsenschluss waren gerade mal 3% davon.

After Hours Trade Reporting Monday January 3  
 
After Hours
Last: $9   After Hours
Best Bid: $8.87   After Hours
High: $9
After Hours
Volume: 50,400   After Hours
Best Ask: $8.97   After Hours
Low: $8.91

 
After Hours
Time (ET) After Hours
Price After Hours
Share Volume
16.02 $ 9 50000
16.02 $ 8.91 100
16.00 $ 8.91 200
16.00 $ 8.91 100

 

 
 



 

 


könnte meines Erachtens Linkshare werden, dessen Eigentümer die größte US-Kabelunternehmen Comcast, das zweitgrößte Handelsunternehmen der Welt und größtes in Asien, Mitsui, und die Internet-Holding Internet Capital (Anteil = 40%) sind. Das Weihnachtsgeschäft hat wieder einmal mit hohen zweistelligen Zuwachsraten gezeigt, dass der E-Commerce ungebrochen ist, ja jetzt erst richtig loslegt. Online-Marketing-Unternehmen werden, wie Google in diesem Jahr zeigte, auch in 2005 die Renner sein. Mitte des Jahres 2005, nach der angekündigten Übernahme eines Konkurrenten in Europa, könnte Linkshare, das in den USA und Japan jetzt schon Marktführer ist, mit einem IPO auf den Markt kommen. Denn welches Unternehmen kann kann ein solche Aussage machen wie Linkshare, die übrigens schon in 2001 in die Gewinnzone gekommen sind, also beispielsweise weit vor Google:

LinkShare pioneered online affiliate marketing, and today runs the largest pay for performance affiliate marketing network on the Internet.

Featuring our patented technology, we provide all the tools and services merchants need to create, manage and optimize a successful affiliate marketing program.

With over 10 million partnerships in the network it is the most successful pay for performance network of its kind. Click on Merchant information or Affiliate information above to find out how you can become part of our winning network today.





Online boooooom weiter ohne Ende

Während das sonstigen Weihnachtsgeschäft in den USA - man muss aus gesamtwirtschaftlicher Sicht sogar glücklicherweise sagen - nur so lalala war, galt das nicht für das Online Shopping, denn hierzu konnte man lesen:

"The exceptions have been online shopping, with sales at the high end of projections."



IPO-Bewertungen steigen steil an

Die hohen Kurs der IPO's in der Blase der New Economy hatten ihren Ursprung im sogenannten Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)-Verfahren. Der Wert eines Unternehmens erklärt sich danach aus der Summe aller zukünftigen Cash Flows abgezinst auf den heutigen Zeitpunkt. Vom Grundprinzip her ist das die beste Methode, den Wert einer Ertragsquelle zu bestimmen. Wir kennen diese Vorgehensweise als Kapitalwertmethode in der Investitionsrechnung oder indirekt als den Vervielfacher bei Erträgen zur Ermittlung des Ertragswertes bei Gebäuden, wie er bei der Festlegung des Beleihungswertes verwendet wird.

Das Problem bei Techs in 2000 war allerdings, dass die hohen Cash Flows erst in sehr ferner Zukunft lagen. Die Schätzungen waren somit unsicher und viele Unternehmen erreichten diese Zukunft nicht mehr. Die heutigen IPO's kommen sehr viel später auf den Markt und befinden sich i.d.R. in der Phase des optimalen Wachstums. Ich teile daher die meines Erachtens zu skeptischen Betrachtungen, die man von Leuten lesen muss, die von Unternehmensbewertungen keinerlei Ahnung haben, nicht. Gerade die letzten beiden Wochen haben gezeigt, dass die Märkte die Phase, in denen sich die IPO's befinden, ähnlich einschätzen, wie ich es getan habe, viele IPO's kamen - wie ich meine zu recht - mit Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnissen von über 10 auf den Markt, weil sie sehr hohes Erlöswachstum schon nachgewiesen haben, noch vor sich haben uns hohe Umsatzrenditen (in der Blase war das ein Fremd-, ja fast ein Schimpfwort) aufweisen.

In dieser Hinsicht würde Linkshare besonders herausstechen. Es hat wie die letzten IPO's hohes Umsatzwachstum, aber es ist schon sehr viel länger in den schwarzen Zahlen (seit 2001) und hat extrem hohe Umsatzrenditen.

 

nicht Nanoschrott oder die siebenundzwanzigste Version von Viagra. Wenn das so weiter geht, hat der Monat ja gar nicht genug Tage, um all die verschiedenen Pillen aus unzähligen Parallelentwicklungen zu schlucken.

Hier die Fakten:

Und der E-Commerce steht im Mittelpunkt

die neuesten Anhebungen der Gewinnschätzungen sprechen dafür:

8:40am 12/23/04
EBay Q4 earns, rev. estimates raised at William Blair (EBAY)
By Tomi Kilgore

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- William Blair & Co. raised fourth-quarter earnings estimates for eBay (EBAY) due to increased revenue assumptions, a more favorable than anticipated currency benefit and continued strong auction listings. Analyst David Ricci lifted his fourth-quarter earnings estimate to 36 cents a share from 34 cents and his revenue forecast to $970 million from $938 million. Ricci also feels that eBay´s recent acquisitions, including last week´s announcement of the purchase of Rent.com, are positive as they extend the company´s reach into classified ads, which is an area that Ricci thinks will move increasingly online.

Übertragung auf die Internet Capital-Beteiligung Linkshare - fast deckungsgleich möglich

"Ebay profitiere in den USA davon, daß immer mehr Internet-Surfer über schnelle Breitbandzugänge verfügen. Daher steige die Zahl der potentiellen Ebay-Nutzer."

Das kann man fast 1:1 auf die Internet Capital-Beteiligung Linksahre übertragen.



Online sales rose 49 percent from Dec. 13 to Dec. 17

Auch wenn die Ami's das Geld nicht mehr so zum Fenster hinauswerfen, was ja durchaus erwünscht ist.

Über die Online-Verkäufe heißt es im nachstehenden Text: "Online sales, excluding business from travel and auctions, rose 49 percent from Dec. 13 to Dec. 17, compared to the corresponding days a year ago, according to comScore Networks Inc. With that sales surge near the end of the season, Dan Hess, senior vice president at comScore, expects online sales in November and December will be at the high end of its forecast of a 23 percent to 26 percent gain from the year-earlier period." Das sind wahrlich imponierende Steigerungsraten.

Und hier verdient die wertvollste Internet Capital-Beteiligung, Linkshare, der weltweit großte Affiliate Marketing-Onliner kräftig mit. Und sogar bei stagnierenden Geschäften, wenn man mit Sonderaktionen nachhelfen muss, ist Linkshare begünstigt - denn man kann diese mit Affiliate Marketing besonders gut an die Frau bzw den Mann transportieren: "Online merchants also are enticing procrastinators to order gifts even closer to Dec. 25 with free shipping gimmicks, according to Heidi Messer, president and chief operating officer of LinkShare Corp., which tracks transactions on various coupon sites that are linked to larger merchants like Target Inc."


Hier der komplette Text, aus dem das obige Zitat stammt:

Weak Holiday Sales Prompt More Discounts
December 21, 2004 7:50am
AP Online


NEW YORK_Retailers are expected to increase discounting in the final days before Christmas after a late-buying binge failed to materialize during the last weekend before the holiday. And that's fueling worries that industry profits could be hurt in the fourth quarter.

"You will really see some dramatic desperation discounting" this week, said Burt Flickinger III, managing partner at Strategic Resource Group, a New York-based industry consultant. He estimated that profit margins will be cut by 3 percent to 5 percent in the fourth quarter as a result.

Merchants needed a hefty sales surge this past weekend to recoup lost business after seeing a slow start to a holiday selling season that never gathered steam. Now, they'll have to rely even more heavily on procrastinators during the final days before Christmas and post-holiday sales _ expected to be boosted by the redemption of gift cards _ to meet their holiday sales forecast. Gift cards are only recorded as sales when recipients redeem them.

ShopperTrak, which tracks sales at 30,000 retail outlets, reported on Monday that total sales fell 3.3 percent for Saturday and Sunday, compared with the same two days a year ago.

Jim Neal, a principal at Kurt Salmon Associates, also reduced on Monday his holiday sales forecast to the low end of his initial range of 3 percent to 3.5 percent. And he questioned whether "unplanned specials" will work. "Are consumers going to jump back in the car and get items that are on sale that are not on their list?" he asked.

Luxury stores _ which have enjoyed robust sales as their well-heeled customers have benefited from the economy's recovery _ had the best performance over the weekend, despite offering only selected discounts.

In contrast, mid-priced merchants like Sears, Roebuck and Co. that cater to middle- and low-income shoppers _ who have pulled back on spending as they have been more vulnerable to higher heating costs and a volatile job market _ are being forced to keep trying to pull in customers with big discounts and expanded hours this week.

J.C. Penney Co. will be opening at 7 a.m. from Wednesday through Friday, offering deals on jewelry and coats. Sears is offering discounts of between 40 to 60 percent on jewelry and 25 percent to 30 percent off of watches from Monday through Friday, according to Bill Masterson, a company spokesman.

Sears, Penney, AnnTaylor Stores Corp., Gap Inc.'s Old Navy and Limited Brands Inc's Express stores were among the chains that discounted more heavily over the weekend than on the same Saturday a year ago, according to Margaret Mager, an analyst at Goldman Sachs.

Flickinger expects that stores this week will take additional discounts on heavy winter apparel like outerwear and sweaters, which have been hurt by seasonally warm weather.

Merchants also are trying to rope in customers with post-Christmas sales, mailing catalogs and issuing coupons for consumers at their stores. Over the past week, AnnTaylor has been handing out coupons, offering 20 percent on all merchandise, including sale items, from Dec. 26 through Jan. 3.

The Saturday before Christmas is traditionally the busiest day of the year for merchants, though last year the day after Thanksgiving stole that crown. However, the last weekend before Christmas could be losing its luster as there are more ways to shop for a holiday item.

The increased popularity in gift cards and online spending could be helping to skew the holiday sales figures.

The National Retail Federation is forecasting that consumers will spend $17.24 billion on gifts cards this holiday season, accounting for nearly 8 percent of the season's sales. Chicago-based General Growth Properties Inc., which operates or manages 220 malls across the country, reported that gift card sales should rise 20 to 25 percent this season from a year ago.

Online sales _ which have been one of the bright spots of holiday shopping and are expected to hit the high end of forecasts _ are not included in ShopperTrak's sales figures nor merchants' same-store monthly sales figures, which cover stores open at least a year.

Online sales, excluding business from travel and auctions, rose 49 percent from Dec. 13 to Dec. 17, compared to the corresponding days a year ago, according to comScore Networks Inc. With that sales surge near the end of the season, Dan Hess, senior vice president at comScore, expects online sales in November and December will be at the high end of its forecast of a 23 percent to 26 percent gain from the year-earlier period.

Online merchants also are enticing procrastinators to order gifts even closer to Dec. 25 with free shipping gimmicks, according to Heidi Messer, president and chief operating officer of LinkShare Corp., which tracks transactions on various coupon sites that are linked to larger merchants like Target Inc.

With a season that is two days longer than a year ago, the National Retail Federation is holding on to hope that procrastinators will save the season. The trade organization estimates consumers on average have completed only 81.9 percent of his or her holiday shopping as of Dec. 19, based on a consumer survey conducted by BIGResearch from Dec. 17 through Dec. 19.

According to the International Council of Shopping Centers, the seven-day period ended Dec. 27 accounted for 20.6 percent of holiday sales in 2003, up from 19.6 percent in 2002.

The seven-day period ended Jan. 3 accounted for 14.1 percent in 2003, up from 12.8 percent in 2002.


Copyright © 2004 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
 

bei der Internet Capital-Beteiligung Linkshare. Unbedingt einmal draufklicken:

http://www.linkshare.com/clients/index.shtml

Linkshare hat unter den Fortune 500, die ein Affiliate Programm betreiben, mehr Kunden als alle Konkurrenten zusammen.

Allein die 40%, die Internet Capital an Linkshare hält, dürften die momentane Marktkapitalisierung von Internet Capital in Höhe von 350 Millionen übersteigen. Die restlichen 20 Beteiligungen gibt es beim jetzigen Börsenkurs auch dessen Anstieg immer noch gratis.

Und in Japan, wo Linkshare ebenfalls der Marktführer ist, sieht es nicht anders aus.  

Da wird ein Wert wie Fastclick hochgejubelt, der nicht im entferntesten an der Internet Capital-Beteiligung Linkshare tippen kann. Linkshare zeigt bereits über Jahre hohe Wachstumraten, ist am ehesten beispielsweise mit den auch erwähnten Valueclick vergleichbar, hat Erlöse die doppelt so hoch sind und ist hoch profitabel.

The Next Dot-Com IPO
By Rick Aristotle Munarriz (TMF Edible)
December 23, 2004

Though the wildly successful stock market debut of Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) earlier this year got investors excited about the promise of the online advertising sector, don't expect to be similarly blown away by Wall Street's reaction to Fastclick.

The popular advertising company filed to go public yesterday, but it would be shortsighted to assume that the graphical ad network specialist will thrive the way that the contextual text ad masters like Google and Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) Overture have taken off lately.

Fastclick is a closer match to ValueClick (Nasdaq: VCLK) and the ghost of DoubleClick's (Nasdaq: DCLK) media business in pitching its cumbersome ads to content publishers who find themselves gravitating toward the more logical Google Adsense alternative to fill available site space. The fact that they all share the same last name is simply a bonus.

That doesn't mean that the graphical space is dead. ValueClick has seen its stock more than triple over the past three years while DoubleClick has inched higher in recent months.

Fastclick is also growing nicely. Revenues through the first nine months of the year have more than doubled to $39 million from $18 million a year earlier. The bottom line hasn't followed suit, with year-to-date earnings dipping from $3.9 million to $3.3 million, yet the reason for the dip in profitability is that Fastclick's income is fully taxed now. Pretax profits paint a more accurate picture, climbing 27% higher so far this year.

So it's clear that Fastclick has managed to stay relevant. It is serving 5 billion ad impressions a month and it has lined up some meaty investors, including Disney (NYSE: DIS), through its Steamboat Ventures (venture capital) arm.

We will be able to flesh out a fairer picture once the offering's pricing is crystallized, though it seems likely that it won't come cheap if you go by earnings and sales multiples. In other words, this isn't necessarily a slam-dunk dot-com IPO. Then again, they said the same thing about Google and look how well that turned out.

Are rich media ads ready to give text ads a run for their money? Will the pop-up ever find vindication? All this and more -- in the Webmaster's Corner discussion board. Only on Fool.com.

 

dann kann ich bei 8,40 wieder einsteigen  

für vergleichbare Werte, hier Valuecklick. Valueclick, mit einer Marktkapitalisierung von 1,12 Milliarden, ist am ehesten mit der Internet Capital-Beteiligung Linkshare vergleichbar. Valuekclick ist zwar breiter aufgestellt als Linkshare, aber der Bereich Commission Junktion von Valuekclick ist direkt gegen Linkshare aufgestellt, aber eben nur die Nr. 2 hinter Linkshare. Linkshare hat in diesem Bereich unter den Fortune 500-Unternehmen, die Affiliate Marketing betreiben, mehr Kunden als alle Konkurrenten zusammen. Von den Umsätzen her ist Valuecklick größer, aber Linkshare ist schon seit vier Jahren in der Gewinnzone, Valuecklich kaum die Hälfte der Zeit. Die Umsatzrendite von Linkshare dürfte wesentlich höher sein, da Valuekclick in den anderen Bereichen neben dem Affiliate Marketing bei weitem nicht die Margen erzielt wie dort.

Two Picks In The Internet Sector
12.30.04, 11:14 AM ET

Standard & Poor's Equity Research said its top picks in the Internet subindustry are Yahoo! (nasdaq: YHOO - news - people ), currently rated "buy," and ValueClick (nasdaq: VCLK - news - people ), rated "strong buy." The research firm said it expects both companies to gain market share, expand abroad and benefit from acquisitions. In addition, S&P Equity Research predicts 35% growth in U.S. online advertising revenue in 2004 and a 28% gain in 2005, driven by factors that include increasing broadband penetration and a greater focus by corporate America on Internet marketing. S&P Equity Research said the Internet Software & Services Index rose 57.7% year-to-date through Dec. 23, versus a 9.7% rise for the S&P 1500, making it the best-performing information technology sector subindustry.

 

der am ehesten mit der wertvollsten Internet Capital-Beteiligung vergleichbaren Unternehmung Valueclick:

• ValueClick upgraded by Pacific Crest
Briefing.com (Tue 9:03am)  
 

klingt wohl einigen etwas unserios. Die finden die Dummsprüche der Bängster aus den kriminellen Vereinigungen, die sich als Investmentbanken tarnen wohl seriöser. Ich nicht, bei mir entscheiden nur die Fakten. Deshalb habe ich auch nicht die Internet Capital gekauft, als die Invesmentbängster um Henry Blodget, dessen Arbeitgeber Merril Lynch heute immer noch dicke die Anleger unendlich viel Geld kostende Sprüche reisst, bei 4280 fanden, die Aktie sei super, sondern bei 4. Und ich will nur einen Kurs von 27, nachdem wir jetzt bei 9 angelangt sind. Für Bängster klingt so viel Bescheidenheit richtig unseriös.

Aber die Fakten entscheiden, lest halt einfach nach.

Besser ist Linkshare-Superstar nicht beschreibar

als in diesem Artikel der New York Post.

GOOGLE'S SCORE: TWO THUMBS UP
By BEN SILVERMAN
May 24, 2004
www.nypost.com

[EXCERPT]

While Google's initial public offering is still a hot topic on Wall Street and in the Silicon Valley, a holdover from the early days of Silicon Alley is showing that you don't need to go public in order to qualify as a success.

Affiliate marketer LinkShare, which filed for and subsequently withdrew an IPO filing just as the bubble burst in 2000, has quietly been making its mark on the online marketing map.

"We've been profitable for over three years," LinkShare founder and chief executive officer Stephen Messer told The Post.

In the four years since the bubble burst, LinkShare has seen its major competitors acquired and consolidated. Commission Junction and BeFree both were acquired by ValueClick, and last week, DoubleClick acquired Performics.

That leaves LinkShare as one of the last major independent affiliate marketers standing.

The company's roster of clients includes American Express, AT&T, Dell, Target and Wal-Mart.

"Search is a lot of hype," Messer said. "Search is not going to be the effective [return on investment marketing] channel going forward.

"The Googles and Yahoo!s will always be profitable, but not as hyper-competitive as today," he continued. "We're not like Google that has to say, 'Search is the way to go.' "

Because the company is still privately held, Messer wouldn't discuss revenue. Last September, Deloitte & Touche named LinkShare the fastest-growing tech company in New York, based on revenue growth from 1998 through 2002.

Based on LinkShare's original IPO filing, that would mean around $50 million in revenues in 2002 - and that was still a down year for the Internet.

Though LinkShare has no plans for another stab at an IPO - "Our growth rates are huge and we've got plenty of cash," Messer says - the company is actively looking for acquisitions while also fighting off acquisition attempts.

"We're the last independent guy and the largest player in the space. You can imagine everyone talking to us," Messer said.

c) NYP Holdings, Inc.

Nur so viel, wenn man schon in 2002 bei 50 Millionen war, wie im Text steht, dürfte man bei dem enormen Wachstum in 2003 und 2004 in 2005 die 100-Millionen-Grenze locker überschreiten: Gespeist wird das Wachstum vor allem aus zwie Quellen.

1. Aus dem Wachstum der Online-Umsätze

2. Aus den Neukundengewinnen von Unternehmen, die Affiliate Marketing in ihren Online Markeing-Mix aufnehmen






 
snag  




26.12.04, 23:26 Uhr (231 Klick(s)) Beitrag anzeigen

Das 3. Quartal als Beispiel für Wachstum

LinkShare Inks Agreements with Over 40 New Clients In Third Quarter
Clients Include Netflix, Apple's iTunes Music Store, Charming Shoppes, Inc.

New York, NY - October 21, 2004 - LinkShare Corporation, a leader in performance-based marketing solutions, today announced that the company has signed agreements with over forty new clients to power their affiliate marketing programs during the third quarter of 2004. New clients span a variety of categories, and include Alloy, Apple's iTunes Music Store, Charming Shoppes, Inc. (Lane Bryant, Catherines, and Fashion Bug), Frederick's of Hollywood, and Netflix. Several existing clients, including Boden and Charles Tyrwhitt, were also signed for the LinkShare Search Advantage solution, which helps clients manage and optimize their paid placement and paid inclusion search marketing campaigns.

"The value of a LinkShare affiliate marketing program to drive distributed commerce online continues to attract leading companies," says Heidi Messer, President and COO of LinkShare. "With hundreds of thousands of affiliate partners in the LinkShare Network, our clients have access to one of the largest distribution channels online to reach their end consumers."

Over 90% of the new clients did not previously have an affiliate program solution - the relationship with LinkShare will be their first entry into this performance-based marketing industry. More and more businesses are looking to affiliate marketing to help them achieve greater reach online effectively and efficiently.

"Charming Shoppes, Inc. is focused on building a solid distribution channel through affiliate partners to ensure that our products and promotions have the broadest reach to consumers online. The LinkShare Network will be a powerful contribution to the growth of our program and to meeting our revenue goals this holiday season," says Robin Baskin, Vice President of Internet Marketing.

Several LinkShare affiliate marketing programs, including one for Frederick's of Hollywood, should be launching within the next few weeks.

"We decided to switch program providers to LinkShare so that we could have greater control and management of our affiliate channel. The tools that LinkShare provides will allow us to manage the Frederick's of Hollywood affiliate program more effectively and efficiently," says Mike Leonard, Online Marketing Specialist at Frederick's of Hollywood. "We're looking forward to our new partnership with LinkShare."

About LinkShare Corporation
LinkShare Corporation is a leading provider of technology solutions to track, manage, and analyze the performance of sales, marketing, and business development initiatives. Combining patented technology, the reach and distribution of a robust network, and expert account management services, LinkShare empowers clients with the ability to collaborate with partners online and develop cost-efficient pay-for-performance campaigns. LinkShare provides the platform, tools, and reporting to help clients acquire new customers, increase revenues, drive results, and measure success across affiliate, search, and email initiatives. LinkShare clients are Fortune 500 and prominent companies doing business online, and include J.C. Penney, 1-800-Flowers.com, AT&T Corp., American Express, Avon Products and Dell, Inc. LinkShare was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in New York City, with offices in San Francisco, Denver, and Chicago.

LinkShare is proud to receive financial, operational and strategic support from Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: MITSY), Mitsui & Co. (U.S.A), Inc., Internet Capital Group (NASDAQ: ICGE), and Comcast Interactive Capital, an affiliate of Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSK; CMCSA).

 

was soll die Mühe ? Es hört doch keiner auf Dich !

Ich habe selber einen ordentlichen Posten Internet Capital vor einiger Zeit gekauft und freue mich schon auf das Jahr 2005.
Wir werden mit Internet Capital noch sehr viel Freude haben.
Meine sind aber für längere Zeit gekauft.
Du weißt ja, was mit Internet Capital passieren kann, wenn die vielen Beteiligungen weiter so gut laufen.
Sollte jedoch irgendwann einmal eine gut laufende Beteiligung verkauft werden und eine riesige Geldflut in die Kassen von ICGE gespült werden, dann wir sie explodieren.
Der Tag wird kommen, wo ICGE wie Phönix aus der Asche auferstehen wird. Nur Gedult !


Gruß Byblos  

eine Verzehnfachung wie bei dem einen oder anderen Zockerwert ist sicher nicht drin, aber eine Verdreifachung bis Vervierfachung schon.

Wie Du ja sicher weisst, sind die Anfang des Jahres völlig auf Nummer sicher gegangen und haben, was ich nicht ganz so gut fand, die Schulden unter Berücksichtigung des Kassenbestandes ziemlich auf Null heruntergefahren. Das begrenzt durch die damit einhergehende größere Aktienzahl die Chance zwar auf ein Verdrei- bis Vervierfachung des Kapitaleinsatzes - dafür haben sich aber die Risiken dramatisch reduziert. Wie Du vielleicht gemerkt hast, schaffen es auch gigantische Shortsellereinsätze nicht, die Aktie zu drücken.  

Nicht einmal Google schafft es

4% der Online-Umsätze zu generieren, wie das der Beteiligung von Internet Capital gelingt (40% Anteil von Internet Capital, Mitgesellschafter: Comacast und Mitsui).

CBS MarketWatch
JEAN LEE, anchor
December 19, 2004



JEAN LEE, anchor: I'm Jean Lee with CBS MARKETWATCH in New York. Joining us today is Stephen Messer; he is CEO of a company called LinkShare Corporation. The company operates an e-commerce network, which handles about four percent of all online commerce. Thank you for joining us today.

Mr. STEPHEN MESSER (CEO, LinkShare): Pleasure to be here.

LEE: Four percent of all online commerce transactions. How many transactions does that work out to per day on the average?

Mr. MESSER: Well, obviously it does change per day as the work week goes on, but roughly around 75,000 to 80,000 transactions. That's just here in the US alone, that doesn't include Japan where we also have a presence, in Europe as well.

LEE: OK. Who are your more prominent clients and tell us briefly how you service these clients?

Mr. MESSER: Sure. LinkShare's fortunate to work with some of the best names on the e-commerce landscape, people like Dell, Office Depot, Land's End, some amazing names, we're fortunate to go to work with. And what we do for them is we provide them with the technology that allows them to track transactions that take place outside of their Web site. They do that to create commission based relationship with other Web sites.

LEE: OK. Explain commission based relationships.

Mr. MESSER: Sure. For example, Dell might work with a company like Yahoo! and say to Yahoo! 'if you promote my products on your site and drive customers to make a transaction to buy something, I'll give a percentage of the sale.' And LinkShare facilitates the creation of the relationship, the tracking of the relationship, and then the payment at the end of every month.

LEE: OK. What kinds of trends, obviously we're in the middle of the holiday shopping season, are you seeing any particular trends during this year's shopping season?

Mr. MESSER: In terms of buying or in terms of where people are going?

LEE: Both.

Mr. MESSER: Great. In terms of buying, we're seeing people buying things like electronics, high end electronics like iPods or flat screen TVs are extremely popular jewelry surprisingly has been a huge seller this year through companies like Blue Nile, we're seeing amazing amounts of sales coming through. Also, computers have always been hot, they continue to be pretty hot. Clothing has also been a great sector. I would say, surprising this year, the coupon sites have been doing amazingly well. My particular favorites, where I shop from, three of them are sites like couponmountain.com, ahugedeal.com, and jumpondeals are some of the three favorites that I see out there and they're doing very well.

LEE: Any particular products or segments that maybe were expected to do well, were promoted heavily, and maybe are disappointing at this point?

Mr. MESSER: I think in general we see toys are doing OK, but not as great as we what have expected. In prior years they've done a lot better than they've done this year. This year, it's the electronics' year. We see a lot of electronics going out and higher end luxury items that are being bought. We see a lot less smaller products, a lot less smaller items selling, really more expensive items. It's surprising.

LEE: OK. What is your best guess as to the mentality out there as to why these particular items are being chosen?

Mr. MESSER: You know, it's always a good question. I think this year people picked substance over quantity. They're really focusing on the few things, few gifts, they're going to make them very special as opposed to in prior years we've seen people buy just lots of products all over the map. This year it's really much more selective.

LEE: And is that an indication of the state of the economy and people thinking with regard to their budgets?

Mr. MESSER: You know, LinkShare tracks the US economy pretty closely at this point so we do get to see those trends and I would agree that I think this year you see people really figuring out if they're going to buy something, it's going to be one or two gifts, they're going to be really special gifts and that way they don't have to worry about they didn't get the quantity.

LEE: OK. You mentioned some online coupon sites, are those increasing in popularity? And for those of us who don't know much about them, how long have they been around and are they growing?

Mr. MESSER: Well, coupon sites have become increasingly popular. I think you saw waves first go in regular searching, trying to find a few brand name merchants to comparison shopping sites and I would say the newer wave are people saying that I can get a much better deal by going to these coupon aggregators. So, for example, I mentioned couponmountain or jumpondeals or a hugedeal.com, all these sites, what they do is they go out to the Web and they find all the different coupons and promotional specials, they aggregate them in one place so that a shopper can quickly found what they want, find the best deal and walk away feeling really special. And I think that's what shopping online is about.

LEE: When I hear the word coupon, I think it's for a box of cereal, I don't think any bigger ticket items, but you know, does it run the gamut?

Mr. MESSER: It really does. A coupon can be free shipping. It can be a buy something, get the second product half off. That has become very successful on the Internet. I think it's continued to grow and I think shoppers are getting much more sophisticated about what they're buying. And I think those sites really help them out.

LEE: So, who might I not expect but is giving coupons these days, offering coupons?

Mr. MESSER: Everyone is used to seeing great deals on computers, but for example, you can find great specials on Dell Computer and Dell Peripheral--peripheries. You wouldn't normally expect to see that because they're always low prices. For example, also Overstock, it's another great example of a site that has already highly discounted products, yet they're offering specials and incentives on top of it. This is the greatest year for shopping online, you couldn't ask for better deals. And if you go to some of these sites, you'll find out what I mean.

LEE: OK, sounds good. We're going to leave it there.


Mr. MESSER: Great. Thank you so much for having me.


LEE: Thank you. He is Stephen Messer; he is CEO of LinkShare Corporation. And I'm Jean Lee, CBS MARKETWATCH, in New York.




Pre-Marketing von Linkshare

wegen eines anstehenden Börsengangs?

Das ist schwer zu sagen. Denn einerseits wäre der Zeitpunkt momentan optimal, andererseits hat der CEO in einen Interview betont, dass man so klotzig verdiene und die Kassen derart überquellen, dass man sogar eine Übernahme ohne Börsengang stemmen kann. Ob er damit auch einen ganz großen Beutezug in Europa eingeschlossen hat, sei einmal dahingestellt

Linkshare zum zweiten Mal auf CBS

diesmal der CEO Messer in einem Round-Table-Gespräch über Online-Shopping

CBS Marketwatch Weekend
SUSAN McGINNIS, anchor
December 19, 2004

'Tis the season for shopping online. With Christmas closing in, more and more consumers are using the click of a mouse to send their holiday cheer. As Jean Lee tells us, that's bringing a merry E-Christmas for Internet retailers.

JEAN LEE reporting: Tyan Tan is a new mom on maternity leave from her job in New York City. She also recently moved into a new home. With all of the changes in her life, Tyan says being able to do lots of her shopping online has been a big time saver.

Ms. TYAN TAN (Online Shopper): From baby stuff to furniture to TV, I got this TV, I got my computer, they're all online, I got it online.

LEE: In addition to buying about a third of her new furniture online, Tyan is also taking care of most of her holiday shopping using her home computer.

Ms. TAN: I just sent two chocolates to friends this morning and got the camera online and I'm planning to do more online, but I know I have a deadline to catch, like before--like five days before Christmas. (sic)

LEE: Tyan joins a growing number of consumers who are opting out of shopping malls and department stores, choosing instead to pick up their holiday gifts online. As some brick and mortar retailers slash prices on holiday merchandise hoping to drive up lack luster sales, their online counterparts are hearing more mouse clicks and seeing more eyeballs on their Web sites.

Ms. HEATHER DOUGHERTY (Senior Analyst, Nielson/NetRating): E-Bay and Amazon are always the top sites. Consistently in our shopping destinations each month, they are always the top sites. But an interesting thing is happening this year where you're seeing double and triple digit growth among brick and mortar retailers. So, Wal-Mart has seen huge leaps in traffic. Kohls.com, for example, saw about a 90 percent increase year over year in their traffic around Thanksgiving.

LEE: And Kohl's wasn't alone. By late November, the amount of online traffic dedicated to holiday shopping already surpassed that of last year by 24 percent. Experts also say online shopping seems to have started earlier this season when compared to 2003. A recent poll indicates nearly 30 percent of online shoppers have already finished with their holiday shopping. Merchandise categories seeing the biggest increases include home and garden, books, music and videos and also video games. Some are choosing to splurge on bigger treats.

Mr. STEPHEN MESSER (Chairman & CEO, LinkShare): We see people buying things like electronics, high end electronics, like iPods or flat screen TVs are extremely popular, jewelry surprisingly has been a huge seller this year through companies like Blue Nile.

Ms. DOUGHERTY: Cashmere, for example, is one of the very hot products. Everyone is selling it, from Wal-Mart all the way through Neiman-Marcus, Barney's, everyone.

LEE: One reason luxury items like high end jewelry may be doing so well this year, gift givers are choosing quality over quantity.

Mr. MESSER: They're really focusing on the few things that they're going to buy, few gifts, they're going to make them very special as opposed to in prior years, you've seen people buying lots of products all over the map. This year it's really been much more selective.

LEE: No matter what kinds of items they're looking for, bargain hunting is one big reason why E-shoppers prefer clicking on Web pages over strolling the store aisles. Sixty-three percent of Internet customers surveyed on why they would choose one Web site over another cited pricing of goods, other popular reasons include the product selection a Web site offers and how easy the site is to maneuver. Another force driving customers to Web-based stores: online coupons.

Mr. MESSER: Sites like couponmountain.com, ahugedeal.com and jumpondeals.com are some of the three favorites that I see out there and they're doing very well.

Ms. TAN: The computer I got, I got $200 coupon, the TV, $200 coupon, so yeah, that's the plus. If you go to a store, they don't tell you about that. And I have him on my lap and we shop together.

LEE: Jane Lee, CBS Marketwatch, New York.

McGINNIS: And it's not just stay at home moms that are shopping online, according to a recent study men are expected to spend 15 percent more than women this holiday season.
 

Das bei der wertvollsten Internet Capital-Beteiligung, Linkshare (Anteil = 40%) ein IP anstehen könnte, hatte ich in den vorhergehenden Posting schon dargelegt.

Auch ich hatte das Unternehmen Fastclick oben schon einmal angesprochen. Wenn man die Firmendaten unten ansieht, dürften die in 2004 ca. 60 bis 70% der Umsätze von Linkshare erreichen. Linkshare scheint zudem profitabler zu sein, da es die Gewinnzone schon erreicht hat, als dieses Unternehmen gerade einmal ein Jahr alt war - nämlich 2001.

Problem wie bei allen Fillings ist, dass wir nicht wissen, auf wieviel Prozent der Aktien sich diese 92 Millionen beziehen. Sind es nur 10% oder 15% oder 20% oder gar 25%. Gehen wir von 20%, so würde das Unternehmen mit 460 Millionen bewertet. Für Linkshare würde sich daraus ein Preis von 690 Millionen errechnen. Das liegt etwas unter der vor mir angeführten Spanne von 700 Millionen bis eine Milliarde. Linkshare hat aber sicher ein Premium für seine Marktführerschaft und seine schon hohe und seit langem bestehende Profitabiltiät verdient. Aber selbst wenn es nur 690 Millionen wären, wäre damit zusammen mit der Börsenwert von Blackboard, einer schon börsennotierten Beteiligung von Internet Capital, die meines Erachtens vor einem Kurssprung steht, die momentane Marktkapitalisierung von ca. 350 Millionen abgedeckt, die restlichen ca. 20 Beteiligungen gäbe es umsonst.

Santa Barbara, Calif., online advertising firm plans initial public offering
December 23, 2004 9:39am
Knight-Ridder / Tribune Business News


Dec. 23--A Santa Barbara online advertising company that debuted the same month in 2000 that the Internet bubble deflated told federal regulators on Wednesday that it intends to go IPO.

Fastclick -- whose fortunes in the past four years have been the opposite of many spectacular "New Economy" failures -- expects to shift from private hands to public ones in a move that might raise $92 million, according to a filing with Securities and Exchange Commission.

It's likely the company would float its initial public offering sometime in 2005, but Fastclick officials would not comment on that, citing the SEC-imposed "quiet period" rules surrounding stock offerings.

Fastclick would trade on Nasdaq under the symbol FSTC.

"It's a monumental event in our history and a key catalyst for our future," said Chief Executive Officer Kurt A. Johnson when contacted after the SEC filing. Again citing the quiet period, he gave no details about the company's current state or its plans.

Fastclick, one of two Internet advertising companies founded in Santa Barbara County, was started in March 2000 by two UCSB graduates working for Goleta's ABLE Engineering, Dave Gross and Jeff Pryor. Despite its inauspicious timing -- the Nasdaq peaked on March 10 of that year -- the company was able to post a profit in less than two years, the pair has said.

"It was a difficult environment when we started, and we knew we had to be proficient right away," Mr. Gross told the News-Press last year.

The company's growth has been exponential, from four employees at the beginning to 90 now, and from a tiny office at the Pacific Technology Center in Goleta to much larger digs on Olive Street in downtown Santa Barbara.

Based on information provided to the SEC, the firm has also been successful financially almost since it opened doors with $400,000 in equity financing.

Fastclick's revenues rose from $4.5 million its first full year of operation to $28.7 million last year, and $39 million for the first nine months of this year. Net income has risen, too, from a half-million dollars in the first year to $3.3 million for the first nine months of this year.

That compares with $3.7 million for the same period last year.

In March, the company brought in Mr. Johnson -- then a vice president at competitor ValueClick in Westlake Village -- to head the company.

"I took ValueClick public as chief financial officer," the former investment banker said, "so this is my second public offering." He acknowledged that his IPO experiences probably influenced the founders' decision to hire him.

Since his arrival at Fastclick, the entire management team has changed, and Mr. Pryor and Mr. Gross, though still sizable shareholders, are not involved in day-to-day operations.

Most of the company remains in Santa Barbara, Mr. Johnson said, though there are offices in Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York. "Our roots are in Santa Barbara," he said, "and we anticipate having a long-term experience here."

The company sells advertising across more than 7,500 Web sites and is paid via one of three models -- a fee based on the number of clicks each ad generates, the number of actions an Internet user completes after clicking on the ad, or the number of the times the ad is displayed.

Some of Fastclick's goals, and presumably a key reason for raising money via an IPO, include enhancing its proprietary technology and hiring more people to develop technology; introducing new search engine advertising technology; extending its network of Web sites and its advertiser base; and lastly, growing through acquisitions.

"We intend to pursue acquisition candidates to grow our advertiser and publisher base and access technology and talent," Fastclick's SEC filing says. "However, we have no present understandings, commitments or agreements with respect to the acquisition of any other businesses or technologies."

The number of shares and their pricing have not been determined. As part of its registration process with the SEC, Fastclick estimated its public offering would raise $92 million. The real figure could vary substantially.





 

insbesondere das Nackte Shorten, also ein Verkauf, ohne dass man sich die Aktien geliehen hat, wird schwieriger. Das war und ist bei Internet Capital schon immer sehr häufig praktiziert worden. Hier sind die Fristen bis eingedeckt werden muss bzw. eine Wertpapierleihe stehen muss verkürzt wurden. In einem Punkt irrt der US-Poster allerdings, das ist zwar jetzt gestartet, aber seine Wirkung wird es richtig erst im Feburar entfalten, da dann die Fristenverkürzung konkreter wird. Wer schlau ist, hat logischerweise vorher gekauft.

Re: An idea how the new short rules work
by: pchu100
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy  01/05/05 05:50 am
Msg: 227752 of 227754

This new ruling will put short sellers at a very difficult position. We may not see the high beta on this stock again. I see a big jump in coming days, sooner than you think, lets keep our eyes wide open, it's fun to watch that......

Übrigens noch sehr viel härter wird bei Blackboard, der Internet Capital-Beteiligung geshortet, wenn auch nicht so extrem nackt. 30 Tage würde man bei den momentanen Umsätzen brauchen, damit die Shortseller sich eingedeckt haben - und alle anderen dürften kein Stück abbekommmen. Hier ist ein Knall mit einem Kurssprung fast unausweichlich.


 

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/050104/10201467_1.html
 

akzeptieren sollte, deshalb ist es ratsam das Angebot der Shortseller annehmen

und, wenn möglich, morgen in Frankfurt einsteigen. So ein günstiges Einstiegsfenster erwischt man nicht alle Tage. Gar zu geizig würde ich mit den Limits nicht sein.

Denn bei Internet Capital-Beteiligung Blackboard scheint dert ShortSquezze schon in Bewegung zu sein. Das wird auch auf Internet Capital abstrahlen. Wer die Möglichkeit in den USA nachbörslich tätitg zu werden hat, dem würde ich raten, die günstigen Einstiegsmöglichkeiten zu nutzen.

Um ehrlich zu sein: Wenn ich nicht meine Zielmenge schon erreicht hätte, hätte ich das eben nicht gepostet.

 

denn die Hedgies, die shorten, haben noch einmal über 20.000 Stück jetzt schon raushauen müssen, obwohl da nach Börsenschluss der Umsatz normalerweise die Stückzahl Null hat.

BBBB   Blackboard Inc.  

Pre-Market | After Hours Market  Jan. 5, 2005 Market Close: $ 15.30  

 
  After Hours Trade Reporting Wednesday January 5  
 
After Hours
Last: $15.30   After Hours
Best Bid: $15.24   After Hours
High: $15.30
After Hours
Volume: 21,229   After Hours
Best Ask: $15.40   After Hours
Low: $15.20

 
After Hours
Time (ET) After Hours
Price After Hours
Share Volume
16.02 $ 15.30 676
16.00 $ 15.30 3900
16.00 $ 15.30 10000
16.00 $ 15.25 5000
16.00 $ 15.30 100
16.00 $ 15.30 100
16.00 $ 15.20 1353
16.00 $ 15.30 100

Obwohl ich kein Freund des Zocken bin, könnte ich in Sachen Blackboard ausnahmsweise schwach werden, denn ein Kauf ist mit geringen Risiken, aber mit Kurschancen von 50% bis 100% verknüpft. Mehr allerdings auch nicht, denn dafür geht alles bei Blackboard einen Gang: allmählicher Umsatzanstieg und überproportional steigende Gewinne.

 

 
 

 

Wird die INERNET CAPITAL GROUP INC auch in Deutschland gehandelt?

Gruß Hotte  

Börsenkurse (+15 Min.)

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Akt. Abs. in % Datum Zeit letztes gesamt
Xetra  6,70 EUR  0,00  0,00%   20.12.  13:28:10 6,70  0,00  0,00  n.a. 0  0  
Frankfurt  6,60 EUR  0,20  -2,94%   05.01.  17:12:56 6,60  6,40  6,60  3,03% 500  1.965  
Berlin-Bremen  6,43 EUR  0,20  -3,02%   05.01.  19:31:06 6,43  6,43  6,64  3,16% 0  0  
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Nasdaq SC  6,57 USD  0,00  0,00%   08.11.  22:00:09 5,08518  0,00  0,00  n.a. 0