da das -ausser denen von Ulm-eine der besten Analysen ist,die hier gepostet wurden,wenn vielleicht etwas euphorisch
....Removing the per-share calculation for a moment, Trina had 71% greater revenue, but due to lower margin, its gross profit dropped down to 16% greater over Jinko. When comparing income from operations, Trina lost its lead in a momentous way. Jinko blasted 660% over Trina. This means Jinko's business is 6 times more effective in a production of income than Trina. When compared Opex, as a percentile of revenue, they are 14.1% for Trina and 10% for Jinko. To emphasize even further the damaging effect of Trina's Opex, internal activities of the company assisting in selling and administrating take away 92% of its gross profits. In the case of Jinko, this percentile is 55%. Trina, in comparison to Jinko, looks operating expenses-heavy.
..Trina has dropped its $6M generated by operations to around $4M of EBIT, helped considerably by foreign exchange and other income. For Jinko, the change in fair value of convertible senior notes and capped call options, a non-cash entry, caused $14M deduction. The company's convertible bond increasing in value was the cause. Management pointed out that without this non-cash entry, earnings would be at $1.36 per share ( and from the perspective of cash flow, they were).
Summarizing this section, Jinko is just a lot better at earning money. Its potential, particularly with the Chinese solar plant/project portfolio, having $157M in project assets versus Trina's $69M, shows a lot more advancement into an EPC business than Trina is today. As the generation of income from the FiT grows, Jinko becomes an energy company, at the fastest pace of anyone in China. Our ED Reports also demonstrate a dynamic reversal, at least in the third quarter, with Jinko exporting more modules quarter over quarter, where the opposite was true for Trina.....
Analysts' estimates predict Trina to make $0.35 in 2014. If Trina simply does what it did in Q3, this is at least $0.56 per share. I think it's reasonable to assume that Trina can get at least $1 in 2014 on its manufacturing efforts. At the price the stock is trading at, it seems to command a PE of 14. The upside factor here is projects drawn revenues and their immediate sales or FiT payment generation. While we have an excellent analysis presented on Jinko by Explo on FiT and income generation, we will only look at the earnings potentials for the next year. The company is looking to bring its module capacity up to 2GW in 2014 while today it has the most efficient processing operation in the world. Its solar plant capacity will double in the fourth quarter, and up to 500MW in total in 2014. An average analysts' estimate oft $2.76 per share does not adequately reflect the module business.
...... If including FiT income from 200MW, which is about $65M in new revenue, 60% GM can possibly add $39M gross profit and net profit of 30% is about $19.5M. Included 300MW of projects in 2014 planned by the company, this can add $1.34 to earnings. At $6.34 EPS for 2014, Jinko is a new rock star of the industry. We cannot imagine PE of 14 here, but more like 8 to 10 PE range is suitable. Jinko's potential lies in the $50 to $63 per share range while for now Trina seems to be fairly valued, using only manufacturing model. http://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/...ar-of-the-pv-industry-is-born |