…für ca. 6 Can-Dollar:
A direct licensing deal for Nano One's cathode process would reasonably fall in the one dollar per kilogram area and shared profits from a joint venture arrangement considerably more than that. Sixty million dollars of high margin revenue is a realistic estimate for licensing a cathode plant using Nano One's process to supply just a single 40 GWh per year battery factory.
With fewer than 100 million shares outstanding, seeing Nano One's process supplying cathode to just a single 40 GWh battery factory would mean 60+ cents a share gross revenue and thirty cents or so a share net after operating expense and taxes. In such a circumstance a PE of 20 would be conservative considering the remaining cathode market available to be addressed and a stock price around six dollars a share. Not bad for getting just a single battery plant committed to using Nano One process cathode material. And, the opportunity extends far beyond supplying cathode for just one battery plant...
Nano One's cathode material process can make any of the commonly used cathode materials (LFP, NCA, NMC) as well as advanced cathode such as LNMO. As a result, the addressable cathode material market that could use Nano One's process is very large
Und für die Phantasie:
At Tesla's (TSLA) Battery Day presentation Elon Musk posited that 20 TWh (20,000 GWh) of batteries would needed per year to support world transition to renewable energy and electric mobility. Should Nano One's process end up supplying cathode for just a quarter of those batteries - 5 TWh per year - licensing revenue as described above would amount to $7.5 Billion and shares could approach $1,000 absent significant dilution.
We happen to be at a point in time where circumstances are converging that strongly favor wide deployment of Nano One's process. Adoption of the company process for a quarter or more of worldwide cathode production is very much in the cards making the prospects for company and shareholders very exciting indeed. |
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