I'm listening to the conference call now, and they did at least mention that they had "79% organic revenue growth". In q4 2019, revenues were 156mm. 79% of 156mm is 123mm, so that means 2020 Q4 revenues for TDOC alone (excluding LVGO) was 156+123 = 279mm.
79% YoY growth sounds pretty great, the problem is that QoQ growth is actually -3%. Before today, TDOC has not ever had negative quarterly growth in its nearly 5 years as a public company. I really hope they explain this in the conference call.
Also, since TDOC alone had 279mm of revs and total revs were 383mm, that means LVGO accounted for 104mm of revenue. Similarly, this is a QoQ deceleration for LVGO, which also never had a quarter of negative growth before today.
What is of interest is that they are projecting proforma growth of 40-43% for 2021 which is 1.95-2B projection. This is apples to apples as proforma considers all 12 months of Livongo and Intouch. If they beat it by just 2.5% which is how much their revenue beat was in 2019 we get 45% growth at the midpoint. In 2017 and 2018 their revenue beat was by double digits! So, I would pencil in at least 45% growth and possibly 50%+ for 2021. A few things that concern me:
1. They are projecting visits of 12-13M which is only 12-23% higher than 2020.
2. They are projecting only small increases in subs. Jason did say their pool of potential subs has expanded by 50% in the last 12 months.
3. Their PCP does not seem to be growing much. I may be wrong here.
On #1 and #2, I am willing to give it a pass as they are coming after a phenomenal year and they are trying to be cautious. |
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