Aixtron- und die Banken stufen fröhlich auf kaufen

Kurs hingeht,  hast das Kommando bei 14 vergessen, meinst vieleicht 1,40 haha  

 

Aktien gekauft,  du meinst ja das es auf 14€ geht, ich lasse mich überraschen  

nie wieder ein Bier zu trinken: ich warte bis die Aktie mal einen Tag im Plus schließt  

Ab jetzt wird gefastet - nur Alkohol - bis Aixtron das erste mal am Tagesende über 1% plus im XETRA abschließt. Wer macht mit?

 

 

AA

 

Du hast aber lasche Bedingungen ! ;-)

Mein Vorschlag :

Kein Alkohol bis Aix über 14 steht. Wer macht mit ?

Kann schnell gehen oder auch Jahre dauern... ;-)  

Das ist aber ganz schön hart. Du weißt das könnte Weihnachten versauen ...

 

für mich. Ich trinke nämlich sehr wenig Alkohol. Nicht das mir meine letzten verbliebenen Gehirnzellen auch noch absterben. ;-))  

mache mit bei den 1 % . Die 14 halt ich so nicht durch  

 

halt so 2-3 mal die Woche Abends gerne ein Weißbier. Darauf kann ich schon verzichten, ist aber ein Stück Lebensqualität, die ich mir ungern auf Dauer versagen möchte.

Ich habe das Vertrauen in Aixtron nicht verloren, im Gegenteil, aber ohne etwas mehr Optimismus im Bereich der Technologiewerte, werden wir noch einige Zeit auf faire Kurse warten müssen ....

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KcuYw677OQ  

https://www.ledinside.com/showreport/2018/8/...utomotive_applications  

Du Sadist. Das ist ja fast schon "psychologische Kriegsführung".
Wir müssen doch den Auftragsschreiberlingen des Kapitals noch was entgegensetzen können. Gut bei manchen - vielleicht auch mir - wäre das nicht so verkehrt. Aber ohne die Fakten hier im Forum, wäre ich und vielleicht auch manch anderer, viel leichter hinter die Fichte zu führen .....  

Danke.

Der 2. Link war notwendig, da beim ersten die Sprachqualität etwas zu wünschen übrig lies.
Zumindest habe ich nichts verstanden

 

Hi everybody,

after having been quiet for a number of days. My view on the share price weakness is that it is very clearly driven by the massive warnings we have seen throughout the iPhone supply chain as the new (and very highly priced) iPhone XR does not seem to be selling.
This is reflected in recent profit warnings from Lumentum, ams (again today), IQE over the last weeks.

According to IQE CEO the sudden slowdown in demand by apple came completely out of the blue.

Note, that the shares of all the above are down 30-50% over the last weeks.

My view is that this has more or less 0 overlap/read-across to Aixtron given that the end-market drivers are very niche and driven by structural trends, e.g. 5G telecom, winning market shares etc.
The one issue I have not yet fully decided on (and look for your help here and input from CWL1) is the following: If there is weaker demand for VCSEL chips (3d sensing in phones) this affects demand for Aixtron machinery in the next years ... unless (!) iPhone demand picks up over the next year (and people buy the new phones with VCSEL chips rather than the cheaper, older phones).
On the other hand, Android will start adopting 3d sensing meaning higher demand for VCSEL chips.

In conclusion: Either we are only seeing a cyclical weakness in VCSEL chip demand as Apple is not selling as many phones as planned, meaning the producers (AMS, Lumentum, IQE) have less to produce for now - but as phones are bought over the next quarters, the inventory is reduced and everything is back to normal.
Long-term i am very much convinced of 3d sensing  potential for phones, this will be an absolute game changer for many companies, like L'Oreal for example (see video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbBJfrkZRDI&t=64s

Keen to hear what you think about the iPhone risk for Aixtron!

Regards,
Fel  

Its as you suggested obviously a problem for one quarter - somewhere I read a CEO statement (Lum?) to selloff overstocks and then everything back to normal.  

Es werden immer mehr  europäische Aktien Verkaut,  die Angst das Europa zerbrechen könnte wird immer größer.  

dann geht es Back to 5 !!! ist echt schlimm was hier abgeht. kann Mann nichts gegen machen ist einfach eine Chart Aktie.  

An der Börse sieht es nicht gut aus, könnte auch schnell mal auf 5,xx fallen
Alles ist möglich  

nach oben. sind dazu da um uns an der Stange zu halten. sie geben uns den kleinen Finger und dann reißen sie uns den ganzen Arm ab. alle tollen kursziele die wir hatten sind auf eis gelegt.  

Yes there is softness on IPhone sales, yes there might be VCSEL inventory built at APPLE, but I still have this belief that Lumentum and AMS are loosing VCSEL shares to Finisar.  Apple funded Finisar $390m as a PREPAYMENT of its VCSEL last December. I believe APPLE has qualified Finisar and is dropping other suppliers.  IIVI knew this and moved forward with merging with Finisar last week.  

At the 9/6/2018 FINISAR Q1 F2019 CC, Finisar said:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/...nings-call-transcript?part=single

"Capital expenditures were approximately 112.7 million in the first quarter, of which...approximately 97 million related to the uplift of building in Sherman, Texas and the delivery of capital equipments for that site...In the second quarter, for our Sherman, Texas facility, we expect approximately 35 million in capital expenditures for the uplift of the building and additional equipment"

"... We expect revenues for our second fiscal quarter of 2019 to continue to grow and be in the range of 315 million to 335 million. This is primarily due to an increase in the demand for VCSEL arrays for 3D sensing applications in connection with the expected timing of new product introductions...
In our new VCSEL laser fab in Sherman, Texas, we have completed the uplift of the building and installed a significant amount of the capital equipment for our first phase of capacity. We have begun the internal qualification for process of all the equipment and still expect to be qualified and in production using our 6-inch wafers by the end of this calendar year..."

"As we start ramping Sherman, that capacity gate comes off, but I think the market here at the -- in the very near-term is still dominated by one customer. So I think that our ability to show revenue growth is going to be in terms of increasing market share at that customer. I think we are winning and making progress in other segments of the market, but the reality is that the volumes pale in comparison to leading customer in this area. So we continue to make progress, but I think that our revenue growth, as we look out, is going to be dominated by a single customer.

"I think we're going to try, to the extent that we can, to linearly load. I think that we're going to try to plan our capacity in anticipation of the ramp that as you correctly called out is in the second half of the year. So we're going to be doing some things I think to better plan our capacity and make sure it's a little bit less lumpy. But no doubt, the demand is relatively seasonal and shipments themselves will be weighted to the middle and second half of the year."

My take is that there is a good possibility Lumentum and AMS warnings are partly due to market share loss to Finisar.  Finisar Sherman plant progress might be ahead of schedule.  Finisar reports FQ2 2019 on 12/6 so we will find out soon.

As for Aixtron, there could be a short term pause due to timing, but growth on VCSEL MOCVD remains robust because of the underpinning of  fundamental strength.  They are all Aixtron customers, and new applications are coming up that need Aixtron's machines.