habe gerade einige US-Stimmen zu den Konsequenzen der wirtschaftlichen Folgen aus den unverschuldeten Notlagen, die durch die Corona-Krise entstanden sind, gelesen. Das erscheint mir eine sehr interessante Sicht zu sein:
James Galbraith: Professor of government at the University of Texas
There will be a vast tangle of unpaid debts that cannot be cleared, and—what is different from 2008 and 2009—the model of foreclosures, evictions, and repossessions to deal with them is going to be absolutely unacceptable. People sheltering at home without income are in no way responsible for their circumstances and will refuse to accept the terms of those contracts. So the contracts will have to be suspended, and the debts cleared away, or there will be a confrontation on a vast scale….
The right model is that of the treatment of inter-allied war debts after World War II: They were canceled, because dealing with the common enemy was a common effort. So the whole financial system will have to be reset. This is not an ideological point but a practical necessity for reestablishing a functioning economic system.
I think some form of a partial debt jubilee on mortgages could happen later in 2021. The pandemic was not the quick three-month thing the government was hoping for when it set up forbearance. There was no V-shaped recovery, except in stocks. It is becoming impossible for landlords to ever recover in making up mortgage payment that were inevitably stopped by rent forbearance.
Other homeowners are facing a mountain of deferred payments they will find hard to manage because the forbearance thing could easily go on another six months before it starts to break all apart everywhere. Maybe banks will be able to roll those up into refinanced loans.
If not, that will force some kind of debt reset, especially in rental houses, because renters are never going to come current with landlords. They didn’t create the problem, so as Galbraith says, they will demand government support for a situation the government (state directly and federal by guidance/policy) forced upon them.
It’s POSSIBLE, you could come out better being underwater on your mortgage than if you chose to slog your way through and maintain payments. Possible. Depends on how the government responds to the crisis it helped create.
Die perfekte Entschuldigung für den Mist, den unsere Politiker und Zentralbanker in den letzten 20 Jahren+ verursacht haben, könnte so begründet werden. Covid war schuld.
Es braucht manchmal nur jemanden, der klug genug ist, auf die Unverschämtheit eines solchen Auswegs zu kommen. |
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