Neues Kursziel für unsere Sovereign Metals. Kursziel wurde um 25 aud Cents Prozent angehoben. Neues Kursziel ist 1,65 aud
t globally. Already the leading source of low-CO2 Ti into the paint industry, in a surprise development it is now the second largest contained graphite resource globally too. Key takeaways for us are (i) global resources nearly triple to 1.8Bt, with grade rising as new higher-grade zones were added. We see this as ‘too big to ignore’, even doubling the PEA to 24Mtpa would give this a >50 year life better than the largest mines in Africa (Tronox, Rio, Kenmare). Next, (ii) high-confidence M&I resources double the 4Q21 scoping study inventory, with a high-grade (the top 4-5m) cut off 241Mt @ 1.5% rutile, both of which should drive improved economics. We double our inventory and production, which lifts our 1xNAV10% to A$1.4bn net of minority interests and staged capex, and processing only 1/3 of the MRE. Finally, (iii) being grid hydro-powered, continuous-backfill hydro-mining, on rail, gravity recovered and low-CO2 natural rutile already gave the asset world-leading ESG credentials. As a material graphite deposit, those just got stronger. The unique genesis as metamorphosed sand for high-purity Ti, but weathered for soft-surface mining / enrichment, drives this. As evidenced by the -60% share price of the largest graphite asset since 1Q18, the ‘dirty little secret’ of graphite mines (low prices on early pre-qualification production) is a non-issue here as rutile will ‘pay the bills’ early on.
We maintain our BUY rating and lift our A$1.40/sh PT to A$1.65/sh based on a 0.5xNAV multiple for Kasiya, holding the 1.2Bt of unmined material at just 0.2% in-situ. This name is catalyst heavy with (a) an updated scoping study in 2Q22 to incorporate larger resource for an SCPe doubling of production, (b) additional off-take in addition to the ~20% already released at a premium, and most importantly (c) rutile prices, where low-volume spot is over US$2,000/t against US$1,351/t last-reported market prices (themselves reflecting last year’s contracts). Effectively 2Q21 contract prices won’t be fully reported until November this year as even 2Q will have some layover of 1Q contracts, ie we already expect QoQ price rises to be reported 6M from now. One silly statistic – Sovereign now has 26Moz AuEq of free-dig zero strip ore requiring only gravity separation. Substantial engineering work is required ahead to address hydro mining, slurry pipes, mineral separation and more, but the key risk, finding the metal in the ground, is past.
Da mit 0,5 NVA aktuell gerechnet wird, gibt es noch zusätzliches Aufwärtspotential in der Zukunft.
https://sprott.com/media/5088/220405-scp-svm-mre.pdf |
Thread abonnieren
