| DAILY UPDATE (February 15th to 17th) – Next Postings: Data Release (Feb 17th*), Commentary (Feb 16th**) // Quarterly Contraction in Fourth-Quarter 2019 “Holiday Season” Real Retail Sales Deepened in Revision / First Quarterly Decline Since the 2014-2016 Mini-Recession / January 2020 Real Retail Sales gained 0.1% in the Month, but Declined by 0.1% (-0.1%) Net of Revisions / January Mining Activity Rose, but Weaker Manufacturing and Weather-Depressed Utilities Knocked Aggregate Industrial Production Lower by 0.3% (-0.3%) / Capacity Utilization Dropped to Its Lowest Level Since Coming Out of the 2014-2016 Mini-Recession; Down 2.8 Percentage Points from Its November 2018 Peak / January 2020 Unadjusted Annual Consumer Price Inflation Jumped to a 15-Month High of 2.5%, from 2.3% in December 2019, Unaffected by Five Years of Revisions to the Seasonally Adjusted Data / Large Downside Payroll Benchmark Revisions Mean Major Downside GDP and Retail Sales Revisions / Benchmarking Eliminated 514,000 Jobs as of March 2019, Wiping Out 20% of the Prior Year’s Growth / 50-Year Low Unemployment of 3.50% in December Jumped to 3.58% in January, Otherwise Still at a 50-Year Low / Broader U.6 and ShadowStats Alternate Rates Jumped by 0.2% / Recession Signals Intensified for the FOMC-Battered GDP Consumer Spending. |
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