Heute war erneut ein Tag mit schwer nachvollziehbarem Kursverlauf und hohem Volumen, zum Zeitpunkt der Niederschrift wurden über XETRA und Tradegate mehr als 220.000 Stück gehandelt.
1. Auf den ersten Blick: Das Hold-Rating vom Freitag hat wie erwartet einige Investoren zum Ausstieg bewogen, der Kurs ist fast zeitgleich mit der Eröffnung von XETRA stark gefallen. Dann gab es ein Buy-Rating von Warburg und der Kurs ... ist noch weiter gefallen. Alles klar.
2. Auf den zweiten Blick: Das Spiel gab es im Sommer auch schon wiederholt. Der Kurs fällt ohne ersichtlichen Grund, Trader und Investoren werden nervös und stoßen Aktien ab, der Kurs fällt über mehrere Tage und ganz unten steht ein großer Staubsauger. Ein paar Wochen später hält Wellington dann 3% vom Float und nicht mehr 0,7%.
3. Auf den dritten Blick: Möglicherweise sind schon ein paar News eingepreist, die einige Zocker nicht gern lesen: https://www.startmag.it/innovazione/...dt-oto-melara-wass-e-non-solo/ (Vorsicht, italienisch. DeepL-Übersetzung ganz unten). Zusammenfassung: Italiener machen Italienersachen, Leonardo ist sich nicht sicher, ob sie noch in diesem Jahr das Paket von KKR kaufenwollen und prüft andere "strategic options". Damit wäre wohlmöglich ein Katalysator für den Kursverlauf weg, auf den manch einer gesetzt hat.
Immerhin: Der Warburg-Analyst, Christian Cohrs, hat ein deutlich besseres Händchen als David Perry und gehört zu den 21% der besten Analysten auf Tipranks.(https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/christian-cohrs). Ob der Kurs morgen stabil bleibt - mal sehen, heute wurden noch im 13,30er Bereich Pakete von mehreren Tausend-Stück verscheuert, manch einer rechnet also nicht mit einer schnellen Aufwärtsbewegung. Ich bleibe langfristig investiert und gratuliere uns allen attraktiven Zukaufspreisen.
Übersetzung:
From the Ipo of Drs to the completion of the acquisition of Hensoldt, to the sale of Oto Melara and Wass, here are all the open files of Leonardo
From the Ipo of Leonardo Drs to the completion of the acquisition of Hensoldt, to the sale of Oto Melara and Wass, today the Defence Systems division.
These are the open dossiers of the Italian defense and aerospace giant, which on November 4 presented the results of the first 9 months of the year of the group.
All the details on the ongoing maneuvers of the Leonardo group, headed by CEO Alessandro Profumo.
"Drs continues to perform incredibly well, we continue to monitor the conditions of the financial markets but strategically there are no changes, the U.S. market continues to be strategic," said CEO Profumo, responding on the issue of the Ipo of the U.S. subsidiary Drs during the conference call with analysts on the 9 months.
The Ipo project suspended in March envisaged the placement of 22-25% of Drs for total proceeds of between 730 and 800 million for the parent company that would have maintained between 75% and 78% of the American defense group.
"Strategically there are no changes on the outlook. For us, the U.S. is an important market and Drs is performing very well," Profumo added. LEONARDO DRS RESULTS
"The nine months of 2021 are characterized by an excellent commercial performance in all business areas Electronics both of the European component and in Leonardo Drs," the group note reported.
Revenues for Leonardo's US subsidiary working for the Pentagon were good: they were up excluding the unfavorable effect of the USD/€ exchange rate. Yet, Drs recorded a drop in orders in the 9 months of 2021 of 29.1% compared to the same period in 2020. THE LATEST CONTRACT FROM THE US AIR FORCE
However, just at the end of October, Drs announced the award of a contract from the U.S. Air Force related to the supply of electronic warfare systems. "The value of the contract is $950 million and will be spread over 5 years (about 7% of annual revenue). In 2020, Drs reported order intake of 3.1 billion (1.43 billion in the first half of this year). The contract represents 6% of the orders estimated for 2021 by Leonardo (14 billion)", MF had recalled. AT WHAT POINT IS THE IPO?
At the beginning of October, Reuters had revealed that the Piazza Monte Grappa-based company was planning to list its subsidiary Drs on Wall Street in the fall. The Italian aerospace and defense giant would sell about 20% of Drs, which has the U.S. Pentagon among its main customers. STILL SLIPPING
But the listing won't happen in the fall, let alone by the end of the year.
"An IPO will be re-evaluated when market conditions are favorable and it is possible to achieve a successful IPO with an appropriate valuation," the Piazza Monte Grappa-based company reports in its third-quarter results note.
"The next window for the listing would be in the first months of next year, according to authoritative sources," reports Gianni Dragoni in Il Sole 24 Ore. THE CLOSING OF THE ACQUISITION OF GERMAN HENSOLDT
In the meantime, the closing of the acquisition of German Hensoldt could also slip.
Last April 24, Leonardo signed an agreement with Square Lux Holding II S.à r.l., a company controlled by Kkr, for the acquisition of a 25.1% stake in Hensoldt AG. As stated in the group's note, "the company is a leader in Germany in the field of sensors for defense and security applications, as confirmed by the recent important contracts acquired (e.g. EFA, Pegasus), and already had a consolidated working relationship with Leonardo in important programs such as Efa, Male, Iff. The finalization of the transaction is subject to the usual approvals by the competent authorities and is expected in the last quarter of 2021 and will involve an outlay of approximately €606 million or €23 per share."
However, according to Il Sole 24 Ore, "the completion of the purchase of 25.1% of German Hensoldt could also slip to 2022. The group is evaluating other strategic options". THE SALE OTO MELARA AND WASS
Finally, the Oto Melara and Wass dossier also remains at stake.
According to press sources this summer, Fincantieri was in talks to buy Oto Melara, the La Spezia-based light and heavy weapons company that merged into the Defense Systems Division, as part of Leonardo's Electronics, Defense and Security Systems business since January 1, 2016. The indiscretion, anticipated by Secolo XIX, has not been commented by Fincantieri.
But the game for the acquisition of Leonardo's Defense Systems division crosses national borders.
The Franco-German consortium Knds has made an offer to Leonardo to buy Oto Melara, the historic manufacturer of cannons and armored vehicles, and Wass, which builds torpedoes and underwater drones.
This was reported last Friday by Repubblica, which explained how on the plate was put "not only the maintenance of full employment, but also the entry of our country in the project for the new tank launched by Macron and Merkel." That is, "the euro-tank Mgcs, which aspires to be the protagonist of a market of over eleven billion euros."
According to the newspaper, French President Emmanuel Macron has already spoken about it to Mario Draghi.
But the Draghi government is also studying alternative hypotheses. "The Franco-German initiative risks putting two state-controlled companies, Leonardo and Fincantieri, with opposing interests, on a collision course," Repubblica points out.
So far, Leonardo CEO Alessandro Profumo has declined to comment on the possible sale of Oto Melara. Repubblica described Knds offer as "more substantial" than Fincantieri's, and said it was worth up to three times as much. "Hypotheses that well-informed sources heard by Analisi Difesa have denied," wrote Analisi Difesa editor Gianandrea Gaiani.
According to the unions, ceding the division to European entities would mean losing "a highly strategic sector, among the main suppliers of the Italian armed forces" that employs between direct and indirect 1500 workers.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
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