Apple (AAPL): Last chance to buy under $150?Posted Sep 19th 2007 4:50PM by Georges Yared Filed under: Analyst reports, Forecasts, Internet, Blogs, Apple Inc (AAPL), iPhone, Stocks to Buy During the market disruptions of the past couple of months, we saw Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) fall from a high of $148 to a low of $118 ( man, what an opportunity that was!!). The stock is now back up to $141 and this may be your last chance to buy it here under $150. Why? A lot of catalysts are on the near term horizon. Apple finishes its fiscal year in 11 days. The September 30 quarter and year-end will wrap up an exceptional year for Apple, yet many would argue that the best is yet to come. I expect the year finishing in 11 days to have final revenue numbers of $24 billion with earnings per share coming in at $3.75. iPhone revenues will be somewhat relevant, but that piece of the Apple story is JUST BEGINNING. As Apple exits fiscal year 2007, the more relevant story is still the overwhelming success of the iPod with the corresponding iTunes store, and of course, the newly revamped Mac computer. Mac is gaining market share in a fairly fluid market. The iPhone production is ramping up. For the year (calendar year), Apple had planned to produce 3.6 million iPhone units. That number is now at 4.8 million units in planned production. European nations will be rolled out for iPhone availability beginning in the calendar fourth quarter with the UK and Germany getting ready for the onslaught.
The question will be whether the iPhone is as popular on the other side of the pond as it has been here in the United States? Answer is: Apple hopes so, but it's not really relevant. Apple has modeled for 10 million units to be sold in total by year end 2008. With production already at 4.8 million by year end 2007, global roll out will be gravy and not critical to hitting expected numbers. Any European excitement and hype will certainly be welcomed, but it's not as necessary as some would lend you to believe. In the meantime, the iPod's next generation has been received quite well and the Mac is just beginning to hit major traction. Not to be repetitive from previous articles, the retail store system, 187 strong, is a major competitive advantage for Apple. I called my buddy Nigel in London at the mega Regent Street Apple store and asked him about iPhone, iPod and the Mac. Nigel informed me that he and his co-conspirators at the store answer questions about iPhone's availability about "200 times per day with live customers and another 300-400 via phone-in requests." I estimate Apple's fiscal year September 30 revenues at $30 billion and earnings per share of $4.50-4.60. The early take on fiscal year 2009 is revenues of $34.5 billion and earnings per share of $5.50. The earnings momentum is both strong and visible with Apple. iPhone revenues are being recognized over a 24 month contractual period, thus the visibility factor becomes that much more...visible! The stock has been a buy for the past 3-4 years and will continue to be so over the next three years at least.This may be your last chance to get in below $150. My 2008 price target is $200-210. |