Forsys Metals (FSY : TSX : $5.40) - Tender - Target: C$7.00
Eric Zaunscherb
Comment: Theatre of the bizarre plays on, C$7.00 target and TENDER rating
maintained;
Yesterday Forsys announced that that George Forrest International Afrique
S.P.R.L. (GFI) has received a letter from Industry Canada stating that GFI
is prohibited from implementing the arrangement agreement whereby GFI will
pay C$7.00 per share in cash for Forsys pending further notice from
Industry Canada. The execution risk associated with GFI's acquisition of
Forsys appeared to increase, fraying the nerves of investors already tense
over the deal's consummation and causing Forsys' share price to once again
lurch to the downside. The lawyers of both Forsys and GFI have begun to
evaluate Industry Canada's action, leaving the market to speculate what the
government agency's action means. Conspiracy theories propagated with
celerity after trading in Forsys resumed, but we believe the issue to be
procedural and that the transaction will ultimately close. We are
maintaining our target of C$7.00 per share, the per-share value of GFI's
all-cash bid, and our TENDER rating. As understanding of Industry Canada's
action is gained over the next few days, we expect Forsys' share price to
once again trade upward toward our fundamental value of C$6.25 per share.
Our fundamental value is based on a DCF(7%) analysis with a project NAV of
C$459 million, or C$5.82 per share, and a 1.1x project multiple.