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Wenn Luckin tatsächlich noch die $750 Mio. Cash hat (wurde ja nicht vom Audit bestätigt), dann KANN dies eine realistische Einschätzung sein.
dolphinslaver25m
$LKNCY I've spent the better part of the week learning about Cayman's court proceeding and Chapter 15 bankruptcies. I'm tired of the speculation. This is going to take a few posts. Here are the facts: On December 17th, Luckin agreed to a fine worth 180 million to "be offset by payments made to its investors AS A RESULT OF BANKRUPCY AND RESTRUCTING PROCEEDING IN THE CAYMANS". - People, Luckin already declared bankruptcy in the Caymans. Everyone already knew this. The stock price started to rise on December 11th, because the settlement is for 'investors' (class action in USA), and 180 million was literally ALL they settled for = bullish. This was in spite of the ongoing bankruptcy proceeding SINCE JULY. O.K so now since we realize that Luckin was already bankrupt, let talk about the JPL, and whether Luckin was Solvent or Insolvent. Caymans law determines Solvency based on the 'cash flow test' = value of assets - debts. Luckin = 750 cash - 460 debt = Solvent.
$LKNCY Luckin is NOT insolvent. They are, under Caymans law cited as doubtful solvent. What does that mean? It means that the Directors 'must additionally consider the interest of the company’s creditors'. Note additional here, as being a solvent company means 'the directors largely owe their duties to the company and its shareholders'. Now, if Luckin was doubtful insolvent, that would mean that the creditors come BEFORE shareholders. However, this is not the case. So why the chapter 15 in USA? My main source is here at Cambell's Law, the ACTUAL lawyers that are instructed on matters of restructuring and liquidation for Luckin in the CAYMANs. Here is the link for anyone that cares to read and understand anything themselves: campbellslegal.com/wp-conte... The Caymans has considerable experience with large debt restructurings and is used for cross border disputes. "There is a wealth of precedent for successful applications for recognition under Chapter 15"
$LKNCY Schemes in the Caymans " often take place within a provisional liquidation in order to take advantage of the statutory moratorium on claims that arises once provisional liquidators are appointed" Statutory moratorium protects the company against creditor action. If applied specifically to Cayman's Law, "The moratorium provides breathing space for the company to negotiate or continue negotiations with key creditors for the purposes of developing and drawing up a restructuring plan." Lets apply this simple fact to Luckin. Do they have a JPL? Yes. Are they protected from immediate creditor action? Yes. Are they negotiating with creditors to restructure? YES People, this is the *** point of ***restructuring. Funny thing is we ALREADY knew all of this information. The chapter 15, as said by the JPL themselves, is a routine filing. Now, all of the creditors, including defrauded investors are part of the 'scheme/s' in the Caymans litigation.
Why is this either positive or negative for Luckin?
1. Guys, seriously, this *** was already bankrupt. The chapter 15 'breaking news' reporting was clearly manipulation to crash a stock that had just run from 4-15 in a month because retail investors understood the significance of the SEC settlement. Now people are second guessing themselves and nothing has actually changed.
2. Chapter 15, if approved on March 16th, bring US lawsuits to the Caymans. Creditors have priority. Multiple schemes may be needed to address the debt.
3. Bondholder's hold 460 million in bonds with a strike price at 55 per shares in 2025. Its 2021. Bonds are currently .80 from when they were purchased. 460x.8=368. That mean the bondholders are due 92 million dollars.
4. Is common shareholder wipe out possible in Caymans bankruptcies? Yes, if the company is insolvent. Luckin is Doubtful Solvent. So no you can't be wiped out as it is the law that shareholders are considered in schemes.
5. Can there be dilution? Yes. But it will make more sense for dilution to come after a relist and audited financials are released as it would benefit both the company first, then the creditors, and then the shareholders.
6. I wish you could see the significance of the JPL sharing the unaudited cash in both reports in which they show more cash than liabilities. This along with the very explicit doubtful solvency that they have named Luckin under, means that under Caymans law, the interests of all parties need to be considered. YOU LEGALLY CAN NOT BE WIPED OUT.
7. Can the share price keep dropping? Sure, because people are idiots. If you have above average intelligence read this report by an actual Cayman's law firm. There are countless examples of successful cases of restructuring, all of them much more complex than Luckins. campbellslegal.com/wp-conte... Have a nice day. |
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