Nonetheless, Aeterna is determined to forge ahead with plans for a phase 3 trial treating multiple myeloma patients with perifosine, which could challenge the rule again in 2014 or 2015.
Why the rule works
Arguments against the Feuerstein-Ratain Rule try to find fault in its simplicity. Investors often ask, "How does market cap have anything to do with the science behind the therapy?" At first glance, the two are seemingly disconnected. But Feuerstein offers a concrete explanation:
"Ratain and I recognized that one reason micro-cap cancer drugs had a perfectly dismal record with phase III trials is because the drugs being developed had already been vetted by both the market (i.e., investors) and larger, more successful cancer drug companies and found to have a low probability of success.
Cancer drugs are scarce and valuable commodities. Larger drug companies are way more likely to acquire, or at least partner with, a smaller drug company if that smaller company has a cancer drug in development with a strong shot at being successful.
Market cap, therefore, becomes a reliable and accurate proxy for predicting cancer drug trial outcomes."
Let's go through that. Feuerstein maintains that should a cancer drug have a reasonable shot at success, a larger company will acknowledge, acquire, or partner with the owner of the molecule (a micro-cap biotech, in our case) long before the 120-day threshold. It appears that market cap has everything to do with the science behind the drug.
Der große Partner hat sich schon platziert !
Vielleicht merckelts noch zusätzlich ! |
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