Colorado State Forecasters Predict 5 Major Hurricanes (Update2)
By Courtney Dentch
April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Five major hurricanes may form in the Atlantic Ocean this year, forecasters from Colorado State University said, a ``very active'' season after a quieter-than- usual 2006.
Those storms, bearing winds of at least 111 mph (179 kilometers an hour), will be among nine Atlantic hurricanes, scientists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray said today. They predicted 17 tropical storms overall; in December, they had forecast 14.
The 2006 hurricane season produced fewer storms than the 17 the forecasters predicted. Last year, 10 Atlantic weather systems reached tropical-storm strength, and five became hurricanes, with two strengthening to major status. About six hurricanes typically form during the June-to-November season, based on the 50-year average.
``We are calling for a very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons,'' Klotzbach said in a statement. In 2005, a record 27 storms formed, including Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma.
Weather systems become named tropical storms once winds reach 39 mph. Hurricanes have winds of more than 74 mph.
Energy traders closely follow the Atlantic hurricane season for signs storms may disrupt energy production in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for 30 percent of U.S. oil and 21 percent of its natural gas. In 2005, hurricanes cost insurers $57.9 billion, according to a survey of claims by Insurance Services Office Inc. in Jersey City, New Jersey.
Rising Temperatures and Storm Frequency
Rising tropical and north-Atlantic Ocean temperatures and La Nina conditions may drive the formation of an above-average number of storms, the researchers said. La Nina occurs when Pacific Ocean temperatures cool and typically follows El Nino conditions.
``We have warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year, which we've seen just about every year since 1995,'' Klotzbach said. The rise in temperatures has mirrored an increase in the number of major storms and may continue for another 15 to 20 years, Gray said.
In their report today, Klotzbach and Gray said there is a 74 percent chance that a major storm will strike land, compared with the historical average of 52 percent. The Eastern Seaboard has a 50 percent chance of being hit, while the Gulf of Mexico has a 49 percent chance, they said.
The forecast counters a report from AccuWeather.com last week that said the Gulf of Mexico is more at risk from fierce storms than the East Coast this year. The Gulf is still recovering from at least $81 billion in damage caused by Hurricane Katrina.
U.K. Group's Prediction
Tropical Storm Risk, a U.K.-based group of forecasters and insurance companies, predicted last month that 17 Atlantic tropical storms will form, with nine reaching hurricane force and four of those becoming major hurricanes.
In their final forecast before the start of the 2006 season, Klotzbach and Gray predicted 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, almost double the actual totals, after El Nino conditions curtailed storm formation. El Nino occurs when Pacific Ocean temperatures rise above normal and can affect global weather patterns.
``When you have El Nino conditions during the hurricane season, it increases vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and typically results in a weaker tropical cyclone season,'' Klotzbach said.
The researchers release an initial outlook in December and begin monthly updates in April.
Last year was the first time since 2001 and the 11th time since 1945 that no hurricane made landfall in the U.S. Three tropical storms did come ashore, causing at least five deaths and $500 million in damage, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Dentch in New York at cdentch1@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: April 3, 2007 11:31 EDT |
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