den sogar die Börsenzeitung schon aufgegriffen hat (hatte ich also vor ein paar Tagen doch recht):
The "Monopoly Narrative"
When the TWS market exploded, Varta was in the right place at the right time. The Company's domain expertise in manufacturing small-format, coin-shaped, disposable batteries at high volume (1.5bn pieces per year) gave it a considerable first-mover advantage in producing similar rechargeable batteries. As a result, Varta was well positioned to take advantage of the rapid, yet widely unexpected, growth in the wireless earbud market which ensued following the launch of Apple's AirPods.
Management and the sellside have consistently conveyed a narrative that Varta has monopolistic market share of the TWS coin shaped rechargeable battery market, which they believe to be sustainable over a 3-5 year time horizon:
Commerzbank describes Varta as "the only shop in town" (11/29/19)
Hauck & Aufhäuser characterizes Varta's positioning as oligopolistic (3/4/19)
Mainfirst claims Varta has a 3-4 year lead on competition (4/2/19)
Warburg estimates that Varta has a five-year technology lead over the competition (6/3/19 report)
This view is further underpinned by management, who states in their recent investor presentations that they expect to have 100% market share of the "Premium segment" of the coin-shaped battery market, with competition only taking share in the 20-30% of the coin shaped market that is considered "low-cost" (i.e. low end). Given that the legacy battery technology (cylindrical) is expected to decline to 30% of the market, Varta expects "at least 50%" overall market share (i.e. 70-80% share of the coin-shaped market which is 70% of total market).
Recent comments made by management further bolster the view that they have a monopoly of the premium headset market (Q3 '19 Earnings Call, 10/29/19).
As we will show below, the above comment from Herbert, Varta's CEO is provably false, as three of the four premium headset manufacturers he listed above have already begun purchasing Chinese lithium-ion batteries.
Und nur zur Info: Diese Buy-side Reports sind meistens mehr wert als die ganzen copy paste Reports der kompletten Sell-side Community zusammen, die häufig nur als IR Abteilung des Unternehmens dienen
kann den Bericht nur jedem ans Herz legen ( die haben alle relevanten Produkte auseinandergenommen, um an die Batterie zu kommen) |
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