In den USA habe ich in zwei Foren einen Text auf Englisch eingestellt unter meinem User "Pathfinder". Mal sehen, ob man das dort liest (Yahoo finance).
Moderna's Q2 numbers and price reaction to them were interesting IMHO (since 8/3/22 160->192). We can be curious what BioNTech reports on Monday (8.8.22) and how the share price reacts.
(1) Higher sales prices per vaccine dose than Moderna
(example USA: 105 million doses and a contract volume of over 3.2 billion dollars = 30.48 USD Moderna: 65 million doses 1.74 billion US dollars = 26.77 USD)
( 2) Stronger currency gains due delayed conversion times
(3) Market leadership: Higher market shares right from the beginning and currently increasing (reported by Pfizer on 7/28/22)
(4) Conversion to number of shares & market capitalization
At least these four points suggest that BioNTech could clearly outperform Moderna in terms of numbers.
The current market expectations (earningswhispers based on the "analysts")
Consensus EPS: $8.12
Revenue: $3.62 bn
EPS at Marketscreener: EUR 7.57
Revenue: EUR 4,109 billion
Net income: EUR 2.056 billion
If BioNTech significantly outperforms Moderna in terms of EPS for Q2, some analysts might get the idea to also look at the number of shares and the market capitalization.
In addition to EPS, the cash holdings should be surprising, which could grow to well over EUR 21 billion and thus higher than USD 18bn recently at Moderna. At BioNTech, exactly half (50%) of the market capitalization (MC see company value) is already available as cash. In addition there are over 1200 patents as well as book values, other "hidden reserves" and the profits of future quarters and projects (DCF).
At Moderna, only 23% of the MC is available as cash.
And at Curevac you can see that an mRNA manufacturer with 580 employees and no approved product (vaccine) at all and with very little and decreasing cash is still worth 2.5 billion euros on the market. At CureVac, only around 10% of the MK are available as cash and that's enough for almost six months with the running costs there, because so far there is no salable vaccine and instead of billions in profits every quarter primarily losses. Vaccine manufacturers are by no means all the same in any way.
Besides the undervaluation (it's just a matter of time) and the quarterly earnings, I'm excited about the pipeline for MS, TB, HIV etc. and the promising cancer treatment projects. Just examples are BNT211 Prime Status @EMA and BNT111 Fast Track @FDA. These technologies can most likely save and help many terminally ill patients and are disruptive to the pharmaceutical industry. It's not just about mRNA, but about other technologies. And it was by no means a coincidence that BioNTech against Corona became number 1 among over 240 vaccine projects worldwide. The medical possibilities of BioNTech's technology platforms are gigantic (human and economic).
"BioNTech - Invest with a clear conscience"
BioNTech and Genmab Expand Global Strategic Collaboration to Develop and Commercialize Novel Immunotherapy Candidates
(A) Collaboration expands to include development of monospecific antibody candidates to address malignant solid tumors
(B) Expanded collaboration leverages Genmab’s proprietary HexaBody® technology platform to develop novel immunotherapies
(C) First monospecific antibody candidate GEN1053/BNT313 planned to enter clinical trials by the end of 2022
(D) BioNTech and Genmab will share costs and potential future profits on a 50:50 basis |
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