das genannte moegliche ziel bei 7190 wurde zwar relativ knapp verfehlt, aber der hinweis auf den -wegen ueberkauften marktzustandes - jederzeit moeglichen heftigen pullback war goldrichtig. das alte ausbruchniveau bei 6970 erwies sich als zu schwach, um den rueckgang zu stoppen, nun sieht es aber so aus als ob sich eine tragfaehige unterstuetzung bei etwa 6840 gebildet haben koennte, zumal im dow die 13000 bislang wie festgemauert stehen. dies muesste sich allerdings in der naechsten woche beweisen, dax nicht nur ueber 6970/7000, sondern auch ueber 7035 waere ein gutes anzeichen fuer einen moeglichen neuen anlauf auf den gipfel.
direkt am montag kommen recht wichtige zahlen in form des ISM Manufacturing - aber bereits davor sollte man das augenmerk auf china richten. hier gibt es offenbar ebenfalls wichtige manufacturing zahlen und eine zinssenkung am WE gilt als moeglich. das top-nachrichtenereignis sind wieder einmal die US zahlen zu den non-farm payrolls sowie die alosenquote
"...What to expect from the jobs report
There are the two big numbers: the unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls.
The unemployment rate should hold at 8.3%, its rate in February. Some economists, including Nigel Gault at IHS Global Insight, see the rate slipping to 8.2%. A jump would be a shock.
Nonfarm payrolls are seen rising by 210,000, perhaps 225,000, with private-sector jobs growing by 235,000.
The speed of the recovery from the 2008-09 recession has been painfully tentative and frustrating. That's one reason Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned several times this past week that an economic recovery is not yet assured.
Higher gas prices and a break in the auto recovery could derail things. So could a deep recession in Europe. Gasoline will probably hit $4.30 a gallon as the national average before peaking in late spring or early summer. Unless Iran and Israel start firing missiles at each other. At which point all bets are off.
More in a week of big reports:
Here's what else is coming this week:
Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index, due Monday. This is the week's second-biggest report. This is expected to rise to 54, up from 52.4 in February. A reading above 50 signals economic expansion. But don't look for big gains going forward because of a softer Chinese economy and weakness in Europe.
Auto sales from major manufacturers, due Tuesday. Look for sales to come in at a 14.5-million-unit rate, possibly a 15-million rate.
ISM non-manufacturing index, due Wednesday. Expect a small decline to 56.6. The decline may simply be noise, IHS Global Insight.
ADP National Employment Report, due Wednesday. This report is expected to project a gain of 235,000 private-sector jobs in March.
Initial jobless claims, due Thursday. Look for another month of claims at levels not seen since 2008.
In addition, China may cut interest rates over the weekend, and an important report on Chinese manufacturing is due. Germany's version of the ISM report comes out Monday, and unemployment reports from Italy and the overall eurozone are due...."
(money.msn) |
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