↵ für Selbstdenker Housing data were also mixed. New home sales beat expectations, while pending sales disappointed. As always, I strongly recommend reading every report from Calculated Risk on all things housing. Here are Bill's comments on new home sales, where he expects continuing increases. The best news was from GDP, surprisingly revised higher to 3.9% for Q3. This is a backward look, but it does provide the foundation for future expectations. I especially enjoy Doug Short's analysis of the components of GDP growth. Doug Short: An update of the regular ECRI analysis with a good history, commentary, detailed analysis and charts. If you are still listening to the ECRI (three years after their recession call), you should be reading this carefully. This week there is (yet another) change in the ECRI story. See also his regular updates to the "Big Four" economic indicators important for official recession dating. Georg Vrba has developed an array of interesting systems. Check out his site for the full story. We especially like his unemployment rate recession indicator, confirming that there is no recession signal. Georg's BCI index also shows no recession in sight. Georg continues to develop new tools for market analysis and timing. Some investors will be interested in his recommendations fordynamic asset allocation of Vanguard funds. Georg has a new method forTIAA-CREF asset allocation. I am following his results and methods with great interest. Bob Dieli does a monthly update (subscription required) after the employment report and also a monthly overview analysis. He follows many concurrent indicators to supplement our featured "C Score." RecessionAlert: A variety of strong quantitative indicators for both economic and market analysis. While we feature the recession analysis, Dwaine also has a number of interesting market indicators. This week Dwaine has a new post on valuation, refuting some of the arguments about "nosebleed levels." Check it out. Dwaine concludes: We have a far better stock market valuation model to manage investment risk, one which can forecast forward two-year returns with a correlation coefficient of 0.65 (amazing for this short span of time), and which is surprisingly adept at warning of bear markets and recessions. This we will cover for subscribers in our December research note in theResearch main menu.
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