Byron Capital Markets gehen in ihrem "ELECTRIC METALS Green Book" (April 2012) davon aus, dass nach der Produktionsaufnahme von Lynas, Molycorp und Great Western die Preise im Bereich der LREE erheblich sinken werden.
Die Folgen für alle weiteren Near-Time-Produzenten von LREEs und besonders für die betroffenen Explorer dürften auf der Hand liegen...
"...Only three types of REE deposits have demonstrated that they can be economically mined. Two of these deposit types, those containing the minerals bastnäsite and monazite, will produce predominantly LREEs such as La and Ce. Without going into specifics, LREE deposits contain of order 80% of their REOs in the form of oxides of La and Ce. In China, allowed production quotas plus some “slack” suggests that annual production is of order 100,000 tonnes of REO. 80% of production quota is granted to companies in the north of China that produce from LREE deposits. So 80,000 tonnes of LREE production has been sufficient, when not under the influence of stringent export quotas, to keep the world’s need for LREEs satisfied. Between Molycorp (MCP-NYSE), Lynas (LYC-ASX) and Great Western Minerals Group (GWG-TSXV), the three companies have plans that would see them produce a combined 75,000 tonnes of LREE deposit-based REOs by 2015.
We suspect that this 90% increase in LREE availability will result in collapsing prices for La and Ce. And this price drop limits the number of additional LREE deposits that can enter the market; if a company with such a deposit and higher costs than MCP or GWG finds itself in the position of not being able to sell its high output of La and Ce, it is doubtful that such a company would even achieve positive cash flow. We believe that the number of such bastnäsite/monazite producers outside China can number no more than five, and we would suggest three or four is more likely..." |
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