Q3/18: Core Revenue Growth Accelerates to 80%
Nik Priebe, CFA • Financial Technology
(416) 359-4293
Bottom Line:
Overall, Mogo delivered a very solid quarter. Core revenue growth accelerated to 80% y/y, driven by another meaningful step-up in subscription and service revenue. The long-term gross consumer loans portfolio increased 18% sequentially, and the charge-off rate remained stable. We continue to be encouraged by the strong uptake on existing products, and believe the shift towards more capital-light, recurring revenue sources will begin to resonate with investors. Reiterate Outperform (Speculative) rating.
Key Points
Adjusted earnings came in above expectations. Mogo reported adjusted EPS of -$0.24, above consensus and our estimate at -$0.28. The beat appears largely attributable to better-than-expected revenue, owing to a combination of strong growth in the long-term lending portfolio and another meaningful step-up in contribution from subscription and service income.
Sixth-consecutive quarter of accelerating core revenue growth. Excluding the legacy short-term loans business, core revenue growth came in at an impressive 80% y/y. This result was largely driven by 110% growth in subscription and service revenue, as well as strong sequential growth in the long-term lending portfolio.
Exit of the legacy short-term lending business reflects an important milestone in the transformation of Mogo. As recently as Q1/15, short-term lending (an alternative product to payday loans) contributed as much as 80% of revenue. Since that time, revenue has increased 70% despite Mogo's full exit from the business. In our view, this underscores the underlying growth profile of Mogo's core products. To reinforce this point, we would highlight that loan fees associated with the short-term lending product accounted 25% of revenue in Q2/18. Despite the full exit of that business in Q3, total revenue was flat q/q, reflecting strong underlying growth from core products. In our view, the full exit of the short-term loans business reflects an important milestone as Mogo continues to transition towards more attractive revenue streams at an accelerated pace.
Revenue mix continues to shift to more attractive sources. As subscription and fee-based products continue to scale, Mogo's revenue mix continues to shift towards more attractive, capital-light, recurring revenue streams. This positive shift is expected to continue as the company seeks to evolve its wealth franchise and integrate a broader suite of products to the platform.
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